Belgium complete their World Cup qualifying programme on Tuesday when they host Liechtenstein, and the setting could hardly be more contrasting for these two Group J sides.
The match in Brussels brings together a Belgian team pushing to secure top spot and a Liechtenstein side who have lost every qualifier and are still searching for their first point of the campaign.
Belgium arrive with a strong record. They sit unbeaten with W4-D3-L0, scoring 22 goals and conceding seven. Their attacking output has been consistent throughout the group, with standout wins of 6-0 against Kazakhstan and 6-0 against North Macedonia at home.
Even away from Brussels, they have maintained control, highlighted by the 6-0 victory in Vaduz earlier in the campaign. Their process has stayed stable across the matches in the group, and they have been able to rotate their forwards without losing fluency.
The Belgian defence has also been reliable, keeping three clean sheet and only conceding two more goals in two fixture, in both games against Wales. They recorded clean sheets against North Macedonia, Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein.
Their underlying numbers are strong, reflected in sustained territory, chance creation and a run of results that shows they have rarely been troubled.
Liechtenstein, by contrast, arrive without momentum. Seven defeats from seven matches, no goals scored across the entire campaign underline the size of the challenge they face.
They have conceded 24 goals, including 6-0 losses to both North Macedonia and Belgium, and have struggled for possession in every fixture, recording a high of only 31%. With no route up the table, this is a final assignment focused more on resistance than recovery.
Belgium are the heavy favourites and the expectation is another controlled performance in Brussels.
How the bookies view it: Hosts huge favourites
Bookmakers make Belgium overwhelming favourites for Tuesday’s qualifier in Brussels. Priced at 1/41, the implied probability of a home win sits at around 98%, which reflects their unbeaten campaign, the twenty-two goals scored so far and the 6-0 victory when the sides met earlier in qualifying.
A draw is listed at 66/1, converting to an implied chance of roughly 1.5%. The visitors, Liechtenstein, are 100/1 outsiders, giving them an implied win probability of about 1%.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals at 1/100 implies a 99% chance of the match producing at least three goals. Belgium have reached that line by themselves in five of their seven fixtures and carry far more attacking depth and pace than Liechtenstein have been able to handle at any stage.
Both teams to score is 3/1, equating to an implied probability of around 25%. Liechtenstein have failed to score in six of seven games and often struggle to enter the final third, so while Belgium will create enough chances to push the total goal line high, the visitors are still seen as unlikely to contribute.
Overall, the prices point firmly towards a comfortable Belgian win, goals driven almost entirely by the home side and only a slim possibility of Liechtenstein getting on the board.
Head to Head: Only one previous meeting
Belgium and Liechtenstein have only met once in recent history, and that match ended in a dominant 6-0 win for Belgium in Vaduz earlier in the qualifying campaign.
The game was one-sided from the opening stages, with Belgium controlling possession, creating repeated waves of pressure and moving the ball with far more pace and accuracy through midfield.
Liechtenstein were pushed deep for long spells and struggled to escape their defensive third, while Belgium’s front line created chances at will.
Players to watch: Doku a constant threat
Jeremy Doku shapes up as a strong candidate for a multi-goal performance, and the qualifying data paints a clear picture of why he fits this angle against Liechtenstein.
His involvement across the campaign has been consistent, starting six of seven matches and regularly completing full games. That alone gives him the platform to rack up attacking volume, but the underlying numbers strengthen the case even further.
Doku averages 3.57 shots per 90 minutes and 1.14 shots on target per 90, which places him among Belgium’s most active shooters. He also attempts plenty of efforts inside the box, with defenders often struggling to match his acceleration and changes of direction. When Belgium dominate territory, his shot volume naturally climbs, and that has been a recurring theme throughout this group.
There are already examples of Doku converting that pressure into big returns. He scored two goals and added an assist in the 4-3 win over Wales, a match where his direct running and repeated one-on-one situations created chaos for the defence.
In the 6-0 win over Kazakhstan, he found the net again while posting high shot numbers, and his consistency continues to show up even when Belgium rotate positions. Whether he operates as a right-sided attacker, left winger or drifting from deeper lanes, he retains the same access to high-quality shooting areas.
The match against Liechtenstein earlier in the campaign reinforces the value of this bet. Belgium won 6-0, spent almost the entire game in the final third and generated sustained waves of pressure.
Liechtenstein have conceded heavily across the group, losing all seven matches and allowing 24 goals, with long spells where their back five sit deep but cannot relieve pressure. Doku’s pace is exactly the type of threat that forces repeated defensive mistakes in this kind of matchup.
Everything points toward a game where Doku not only gets into scoring positions but gets them often enough to make 2+ goals a realistic and well-supported angle.
Predicted line-ups
Belgium (4-2-3-1): Sels; Seys, Theate, De Winter, Castagne; Onana, Raskin; Vanaken, Doku, Trossard; De Ketelaere.
Liechtenstein (3-5-2): Buchel; Meier, Malin, Goppel; N. Hasler, Sele, Luchinger, A. Hasler, Hofer; Pizzi, Salanovic
Anything else catch the eye?
This match offers one of the clearest statistical profiles of the qualifying round, and the combination of Liechtenstein under one first-half corner, Belgium over two first-half corners and Belgium over one first-half goal is strongly supported by the numbers across both teams’ campaigns.
Liechtenstein’s first-half corner output is the weakest in the section. Across seven qualifiers, they have recorded only two first-half corners in total and finished with zero corners in five of the seven matches.
Their first-half corner results include zero against Belgium, Wales, North Macedonia and Wales again, and they have not produced more than one in any match. They concede early territory, defend in a deep five and rarely leave their half in the opening period. That makes the underline the natural angle.
Belgium’s first-half corner numbers are the complete opposite. They have won six of their seven first-half corner counts and average over five first-half corners per game. They hit eight against North Macedonia, nine against Kazakhstan and five in the reverse fixture with Liechtenstein.
Belgium deliver width, crosses and set-piece pressure and consistently pins opponents back in the opening twenty minutes, which brings the over two-line firmly into play.
The case for Belgium over one first half goal is equally strong. Belgium scored seven against Gibraltar, five against Czechia, six against Kazakhstan, four against North Macedonia and six against Liechtenstein. In the reverse meeting, they led at half-time and created enough pressure to stretch the game quickly.
Liechtenstein have conceded goals inside the first half in six of their seven qualifiers, often struggling to defend wide areas when Belgium-level sides attack with pace and numbers.
The match profile points clearly towards early Belgian control, sustained pressure and goals before the interval.
GambleAware