Through The Years 16/1 (4pl) – Ascot 2.30
I got my fingers burnt by backing a short-priced favourite in the opening race yesterday. It's not something I'm fond of, but I did think she was the most likely winner. In hindsight, it was a foolish decision.
For races like this, I think you can get a big indicator of their chances based on their pedigrees. I like the look of two of Wesley Ward's horses, but the one who is shorter and most fancied is drawn low. As a result, I'm taking a chance on Through The Years, which is the ride of John Velazquez.
She is by No Nay Never, a previous winner of this race, and out of an Invincible Spirit mare. She has been running over the extended five furlongs in America and broke the track record at Belmont last time out. I like that she is proven over slightly further, as Ascot is a stamina test, and knowing that she has stamina for slightly longer and good pace, she's worth a shot at 28/1.
Giavellotto 10/1 (3pl) – Ascot 3.05
Despite having Kalpana on the main thread, I did think Giavellotto was being massively overlooked at odds of 11/1.
He is a bit of a globetrotter these days, and has acquitted himself very well. He was second in the Hong Kong Vase, which is a tough Group 1 to win. He then was third in Qatar, before finishing third at Meydan behind Calandagan. He has finished behind a couple of these horses in the races I've just stated, but his hold-up style was never going to suit those tracks.
Ascot can be forgiving from the rear if they go a solid gallop. The stiff finish brings out the best in this horse, and the price suggests he has a fairly small chance of winning. He could easily hit the frame at the least.
Evanesco 9/1 (5pl) – Ascot 5.35
Going from winning a class 3, five-runner field to Royal Ascot is like chalk and cheese, but I liked the performance of Evanesco.
He got the run of the race at Newmarket, which can favour front-runners, but the form has been franked. The runner-up went to the London Gold Cup at Newbury and finished second, running a nice race. That horse was bought by Wathnan Racing, as was the third. The third in the London Gold Cup ran a respectable race at Ascot earlier this week, so it looks like Evanesco beat a solid horse.
The wide draw allows David Egan to slot into a nice position if he breaks well. Ascot hasn't been too kind to the front-runners, but if that's the best way to ride him, I'd like to see him do it.
Columbus 13/2 (3pl) – Ascot 6.10
The final race of Royal Ascot is the Queen Alexandra Stakes, which is a strange race. This is the longest flat race on the circuit, with the distance being just shy of 2m 6f. They run off level weights, so the class horses should win this, but it's hard to say which will stay, which makes it more of an even playing field.
Willie Mullins sends a couple for this, and Colin Keane rides Columbus, who is making his first flat start for Willie. He used to be a solid performer on the flat for C Ferland in France, as shown by being placed in a Group 1. His fitness should be right, as he had a hurdle run at Killarney last month. I thought he was an interesting runner for a yard who does very well with horses like this.
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