Venetian Sun landed the second ante-post bet of the week, making it 2/3.
It was squeaky bum time for Clifford Lee and Venetian Sun, who nearly got robbed late at home by Spicy Marg, the 50/1 shot. I thought she was going to win a lot easier, and maybe she will be better on a flatter 6f or a stiff 5f. She has so much speed, and she has enough class to get her home against stronger staying horses. She could be a live dog in Nunthorpe later in the season.
Kalpana 5/2 (1pt) – Ascot 3.05
This is a fascinating race, and it took me an age to figure out which horse I wanted to back. In the end, I put my money on Kalpana.
We don't have a Calandagan, or a horse of that ilk. Instead, we have many horses that have been beaten by Calandagan, and even Jan Brueghel, who beat him. I expect this to be a messy race with the pacemakers involved, but as long as they don't get in the way of Colin Keane and Kalpana, I'll be happy.
I think my selection has the tactical speed to cruise into contention on the back of a solid pace, and then quicker, whilst the others have been under the pump. She is a Group 1 horse, especially against her own sex, and has been unlucky in Group 1 races against the boys. This is a Group 2, but could easily be a Group 1 with the level of horses turning up.
I'd say 5/2 is a fair price. I don't think she deserves to get shorter than that.
Joliestar 15/8 (1pt) – Ascot 3.40
I'm not going to pretend that I know an ounce about Australian racing, but what I do know is that they produce better sprinters than we do. We've already seen Overpass run well this week (in this race as well), and Joliestar is the favourite for this race. She is probably on the short side, but with the reputation that the Aussies bring over, she probably deserves it.
Satono Reve ran well in this race last year, but he is an ageing seven-year-old. The Japanese runner has been behind Ka Ying Rising on many occasions. Joliestar bumped into the best sprinter in the world when he came to Randiwck late last year. She wasn't positioned the greatest, towards the rear, then raced wide around the bend. I think she would have finished much closer, and that is the best piece of form on offer.
I believe this stiff, straight track will suit her. She is drawn in 9, which could be a problem, but she has Jimmy Mac in the saddle, who is brilliant.
I looked at outsiders in this, the likes of Almeraq. In the end, I thought, why overcomplicate things? The British aren't that great in these races when the raiders come over.
Saber Strike 15/8 (1pt) – Ascot 4.20
The rumours around Newmarket is the Saber Strike could be an extremely useful horse. William Haggas isn't a stranger to training a seven-furlong specialist; he's done it many times before.
Saber Strike is a short price for this race, but it doesn't look like a strong race on paper. He has only run two times and has recorded some big figures from those two runs. With more progression likely to come, I think it was a no-brainer to back him for this race. If he wins this race, expect to see him in a Group 1 in the near future, probably in France.
Binhareer 4/1 (1pt)- Ascot 5.00
Once again, it's a boring pick, and it's unfortunate the price has collapsed on Binhareer, but this race looks tailor-made for him.
I was a supporter of his early into last season, before he became a hype horse and everyone jumped on. I backed him on a couple of occasions, and he burnt my fingers. He is a horse who would run his race, but throw it away by hanging or getting caught late on.
Based on his sole run this year, it looks like he has gotten even better. His handicap mark continues to climb, but he has been a horse who would relish a relentless gallop, and he could pick up the pieces late in the race. He has been given a nice draw towards the stand side, and given Haggas has done well in handicaps this week, he is the one to beat.
GambleAware