Bournemouth welcome Sunderland to the Vitality Stadium on Sunday with the Premier League fixture kicking off at 14:00. Both teams have struggled to turn encouraging attacking performances into consistent results, but their underlying numbers suggest there could be opportunities at both ends.
Bournemouth have collected just two points from their opening six league matches, although their attacking performances have frequently deserved a better return. The hosts are averaging 1.44 expected goals per match, with that figure rising to 1.89 xG at the Vitality Stadium.
They have attempted an average of 15.33 shots across their three home fixtures, demonstrating their ability to create opportunities despite their disappointing results. Their 1-1 draw against Everton was particularly frustrating. Bournemouth generated 2.66 xG but converted only one of their opportunities.
They also produced 1.88 xG and attempted 20 shots in their 2-2 draw against Brentford, another performance in which their attacking output was stronger than the result suggested. However, their latest fixture ended in a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea, despite the expected goals figures being relatively close at 1.09 to 1.05.
Sunderland have also experienced difficulties, recording just one victory from their opening six league fixtures. Their attacking performances away from home have nevertheless been encouraging.
The visitors have averaged 2.04 xG per away match, scoring five goals across their opening three fixtures on the road. Their 5-3 defeat at Manchester City demonstrated their attacking potential. Sunderland generated 2.79 xG, attempted 17 shots and created eight big chances against the league leaders.
They also produced 2.40 xG in their 1-1 draw against Brentford, demonstrating their ability to create opportunities against different opponents. However, Sunderland's defensive performances have been less convincing.
The visitors have conceded eight goals in three away matches, averaging 2.67 goals against per fixture. Their away expected goals against figure stands at 1.79.
Bournemouth's attacking absences are an important consideration. Alex Scott, Junior Kroupi and Justin Kluivert are unavailable according to the supplied team news, reducing their options in the final third.
How the bookies view it
Bournemouth are 11/10 favourites, giving them an implied winning probability of 47.6%. The draw is available at 13/5, representing 27.8%, while Sunderland are also 13/5, carrying the same implied probability.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5, implying a 55.6% probability. Both teams to score is available at 7/10, representing 58.8%. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10, carrying an implied probability of 47.6%.
Head to head: Tight games with limited goals
The recent history between Bournemouth and Sunderland has generally produced tighter contests. Only three of the previous ten meetings have contained over 2.5 goals.
Their meeting at the Vitality Stadium in February ended 1-1, demonstrating how closely matched the sides can be.
Player to watch: Marcus Tavernier to attack Sunderland
Marcus Tavernier has been one of Bournemouth's most productive attacking players during their difficult start to the season. The midfielder has scored three goals from 13 shots, demonstrating his ability to contribute in front of goal despite Bournemouth's struggles.
His creative output has also been encouraging. Tavernier has produced ten chances and recorded 0.96 expected assists. Those figures highlight his importance to Bournemouth's attacking play, particularly with several players unavailable.
The hosts have averaged 1.89 xG at home and created numerous opportunities against Everton and Brentford, but they have struggled to convert those performances into victories. Tavernier should have opportunities to influence Sunday's match against a Sunderland defence that has conceded eight goals in three away fixtures.
His ability to contribute both goals and chances makes him an important player in Bournemouth's attempts to improve their attacking return.
Predicted lineups
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Petrovic, Araujo, Silva, Diakite, Truffert, Adams, Cook, Brooks, Tavernier, Rayan, Evanilson.
Sunderland (4-2-3-1): Roefs, Hume, Mukiele, Danso, Reinildo, Xhaka, Sadiki, Meunier, Le Fee, Angulo, Isidor.
Anything else catch the eye
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is the best bet at 11/10. The attacking performances of both teams provide the starting point.
Bournemouth have averaged 1.89 xG at home, generating 2.66 against Everton and 1.88 against Brentford. Those figures suggest the hosts have been creating enough opportunities to score more regularly than their results indicate.
Sunderland's away attacking record is equally encouraging. The visitors are averaging 2.04 xG on the road and have already scored three times at Manchester City. Their performance at the Etihad demonstrated that they can create opportunities even against stronger opposition, generating 2.79 xG and eight big chances.
Sunderland's defensive record also supports the possibility of Bournemouth finding the net. They have conceded eight goals in three away matches, with opponents generating 1.79 xG per fixture. Bournemouth's recent defensive performance is another concern. Their 5-1 defeat at Chelsea highlighted the damage opponents can cause when opportunities are converted efficiently.
The biggest risk is Bournemouth's attacking personnel. The absence of Kroupi and Kluivert reduces their options, while Scott's absence further weakens the squad. There is also a historical concern, with only three of the previous ten meetings producing over 2.5 goals.
However, the current attacking statistics suggest both teams are capable of contributing to the scoreline. Bournemouth's home performances have regularly produced chances, while Sunderland have demonstrated considerable attacking threat away from home.
At 11/10, the selection requires both teams to score and the match to contain at least three goals. The odds imply a 47.6% probability, making it a more speculative choice than the other weekend selections. Nevertheless, the combination of Bournemouth's home attacking output, Sunderland's away xG and both teams' defensive vulnerabilities provides a reasonable case for an open contest.
AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland Betting Tips & Predictions
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