Oct 13: Brazil Serie B – Go Oeste for a golden treble!

FOLLOWING some cancellations in Argentina I’m looking at Serie B tonight and a quick reminder the season-long stats with 80 per cent of games now played for this league are 37 per cent over and 63 per cent under.

So we are looking to buy into the general trend of the league for less exciting matches. That said the third of these picks is a positive goals bet so for goals seekers that’s potentially the one to follow!

Nevertheless the first two are unders!

Oeste v Fortaleza (8.30pm)

Oeste are third best for unders with only 4 of their 15 homes registering as over. They’ve scored 14 and conceded 11 so they’re not goal crazy and they’re fairly careful at the back. Perfect for us.

Although two of their most recent five homes have been over, in those five games they’ve scored a total of 3 and conceded a total of 4. That does not average out at a trend we should be worrying about.

Meanwhile, Fortaleza sit top of the league on the stats that matter for most – points scored from games played.  But we don’t care about that!  They’ve played 15 away and 6 are over and 9 under so  we’re veering away from the obvious under picks – this is the 11th best side for away unders.

However, their last three have all been under. Also, their last five aways show only 3 goals scored and 8 conceded.

So they’re top of the league but their last five aways have shown real jitters – 4 defeats and only 1 win.

Oeste with their 3 goals for at home don’t seem much of a threat but look tight at the back, conceding only 4.  What do Fortaleza’s figures suggest? Certainly not all-out attack but rather a defence in need of shoring up.

No H2H in recent seasons with Oeste home though they won 2-1 at Fortaleza earlier in the season. Not ideal but nothing to put us off.

You have to go with what you see and this does not look like two sides with attack in mind!

• Under 2.5 goals (3-5, bet365)

Vila Nova v Boa KO (8.30pm)

Vila Nova are the best-ranked home team in this league of 20 for unders. Fourteen games played at home and 11 have been under 2.5 goals. They’ve scored 13 and conceded 6.

You’ll note I’m writing these out rather than setting them down as a set of dry figures, as sometimes the bland facts in a table are a bit of a turn-off! Another way of putting it is only 21 percent of their home games have been over 2.5 goals.

Against that you could note two of those overs results occurred in their last four home games. Those were against Coritiba and Goias who  have both played 15 away and have totalled goals (scored and conceded) of 37 and 47 respectively this season.

Tonight’s opponents for Vila Nova are Boa and they have aggregated away goals – 7 scored, 20 conceded – of 27 after 15 aways.

More specifically Boa are 2nd best away team for unders in the league, with only 20 per cent of their aways – 3 of 15 – over 2.5 goals. Again, two of those O2.5 games have been recent, one of them against Coritiba, but their overall for and against in their last five aways is 2-6.

The expectation is not for Vila Nova to go goal crazy or for Boa to start defending like a glass of water.

H2H for the last two seasons have two games last season, both 1-0 to Vila Nova, and the reverse fixture this season at Boa was 2-0 away to Vila Nova.

• Under 2.5 goals (4-9, bet365)

Figueirense v Coritiba (11pm)

You’ll be delighted to know we’re going to look at both Teams To score! The stats are fairly clear…

Figueirense have landed 10 x btts  in 15 home games this season – 1st.

Coritiba have landed 10 x btts in 15 away games this season – 1st.

In their last five home games Figuerense have both scored (x7) and conceded (x9) in every single one.

In their last five games away Coritiba have scored in four (x5) and conceded in four (x6)

Last season Coritiba were in Serie A while the season before that and Serie A was where you’d find Figueirense.  This season with Coritiba home it was 1-1… And in the two recent seasons they’ve been in the same league, every one of their four games has been a draw. So, if one scores…

I think that may be taking an idea for too long a walk but at the odds I like BTTS here very much.

• Both to Score (Evens, bet365)

Recommended Treble

• Oeste v Fortaleza under 2.5 goals
• Vila Nova v Boa under 2.5goals
• Figueirense v Coritiba both to score
• (7-2, bet365)

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