IT'S HERE! – We're nearly ready for SEVEN HOURS OF COMMERCIAL FREE FOOTBALLLLLLLL! And I, for one, can't wait!

I gave out a winner for the Thursday night game, and I'll be properly tracking bets this year – MrFixIt P/L if you want to follow along. Full transparency is the key. (Link corrected, sorry)

I've just done far too many words on my own site if you want more in-depth work, so I'll keep it short on here with a few select bets. I usually like to mix up the bets with a Spread or Total, a yardage prop, and a TD bet, so I'll probably try and keep to that format

Las Vegas Raiders to cover -3 @ the Carolina Panthers (general)

This off-season will likely hurt teams with a lot of turnover, and there's none with more change than the Panthers, new HC/OC/DC/QB/Defense. There's a ton of change there. Given a year or two I think they'll be pretty good but this season could prove a struggle for them. The Raiders are fairly constant from last year and have added on offense. Running back Josh Jacobs had a great debut season last year and should go well on the ground again, Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards add to the pass-catching group and their offensive line will give time to find these guys.

Cincinnati Bengals team total – OVER 19.5 points. (1.83 on Bet365)

This might be a homer pick as I'm a Bengals fan, but they've got a ton of talent on offense and a QB who should be able to find his men, AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Auden Tate, Tee Higgins are a very good pass-catching corps, and Joe Mixon was one of the best RBs in the league in the second half of last year. Their defense probably won't be able to stop the Chargers all game, so it's likely they'll have to put up points, and while the Chargers are a good D, I think 3 TDs is get-able.

Jack Doyle o32.5 receiving yards (Colts – 1.83 on 365/Skybet/Hills)

The Colts are big favourites against the Jaguars and have a new QB who may have lost a lot of his arm strength. Philip Rivers has always liked to target the tight end and Doyle will be the man between the 20s for the Colts. (My man Mo Alie-Cox may well be the target in the redzone) – So I've got to expect 4+ receptions for him (you can take o3.5 receptions if you prefer 2.10 on 365) in this one against a poor Jaguars defense he should be able to get these yards.

Dan Arnold anytime TD (Cardinals v 49ers) – 13/1 (Paddypower)

Sod it, let's go for a big one to start the season (I also like Josh Jacobs, AJ Green, Todd Gurley at short prices) You might not have heard of Dan Arnold, let's be fair it's not the most inspiring name in the league, but the nickname “the postman” is half because of his boring moniker and half because he tends to deliver. He moved to the Cardinals late in the season but seemed to form a good partnership with Kyler Murray; 8 receptions for 127 yards and 2 TDs in 3 games at the end of the season. It's a big price for him.

I said on Thursday it's probably a decent idea to take it easy to start the season and that's probably true but there's a lot of low lines around on players who I think should have decent games worth having a look at.

Good luck with whatever you're on tonight. Lets hope the season starts well! God bless REDZONE!

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

  1. greenman 2 weeks ago

    thanks adam am on dan arnold
    i posted a few “tips” on thursdays post, but dont really like them now.

  2. bigmick 2 weeks ago

    Hi new to the site my bets/tips for week 1 are-
    Colts -8, bills -6. 5, eagles -5. 5 treble around 6/1.
    Ekeler any time td evens.
    Dalvin Cook over 74.5 yds 5/6
    Long shot bet Gesicki first td scorer 16/1

    • TDTips 2 weeks ago

      That’s some harsh beats tbf, I had Colts in my eliminator so out of that already!

  3. nflfan 2 weeks ago

    Hi all
    New Orleans v Tampa see this game going over coral machine in shop over
    46.5 at 4/5 could be a shoot out

  4. nflfan 2 weeks ago

    Sky bet Baltimore indianapolis Philadelphia all ml enhanced to 11/8

    • mar10bet 2 weeks ago

      You seen the free £10 bet thing on Skybet? It’s through the sky poker with code free10 on the drop down for promo code. Then back to skybet and you’ll have £10 to bet.

  5. bigmick 2 weeks ago

    Good shouts NFL fan I’ve done a double on the overs with Saints and Patriots games. Getting better than evens on those 3 winning worth a shot especially on the ml

  6. mar10bet 2 weeks ago

    Nice site Adam. Glad Ive came back to the site and great to see so much in depth write ups on yours. Great read and in favourites now 👌

  7. nflfan 2 weeks ago

    Let’s hope so big Mick and nice one on the free bet mar10bet

  8. mar10bet 2 weeks ago

    Doyle just romped that prop bet! I’m on it with Lions & Raiders as a treble 🤞nice tip Adam 💪

    • mar10bet 2 weeks ago

      Saints went evans after Brady’s great drive so stuck my winnings in that 🤞

  9. TDTips 2 weeks ago

    Thanks for the kind words. Doyle yards is in, Raiders spread looking good

  10. bigmick 2 weeks ago

    Nice tipping Adam. My treble was looking good early on but completely bombed. Go figure I pick 2 upsets hopefully do better than that going forward.

  11. nflfan 2 weeks ago

    2 bets
    Went 1-1
    Colts and eagles didn’t see that coming at half time
    Saints v bucs went over as expected
    Well done Adam and all the winners tonight ☘️

  12. mar10bet 2 weeks ago

    Made a nice 14 point profit yesterday so outstanding start to week 1. Thinking of playing the under in the Steelers game as with their D and Giants lack of O (they just never click even when they look decent in paper) could be in with a shout. That doubled with Titans ML pays 21/10 @ bet365.

    • mar10bet 2 weeks ago

      Another winner but still not sure how the Titans won that between Gostkowskis kicking and the Denver O looking far better than the Titans. Still a wins a win and some great defensive football in parts last night. Roll on TNF.
      Be watching the Celtics later and took them to win on the ML with under 210. They’ve got too many threats for Miami to scheme a defence to stop them all and think 210 is stretch for 2 top defensive teams in game 1 of a conference final. It’s a poor 2nd but like a bit of NBA when there’s no NFL. It’s usually my placebo when NFL season finishes but got them all at one time just now. Certainly makes night shift all the more bearable 😂

  13. greenman 2 weeks ago

    Tim Patrick (denver) to score a t.d 5/1 and to score 2 is 50/1

  14. bigmick 2 weeks ago

    Steelers -5. 5 and under 48.5 points 15/8 main bet.
    Broncos v Titans tough to call Titans are the better team but Broncos are 22-3 in last 25 home game season openers. Going to take a chance on Broncos ml and double with Steelers -6 roughly 7/2

    • TDTips 2 weeks ago

      That’s the main reason I’m staying off that game tonight. Denver at home in September is not something I want to be going against.

      As for Steelers, not touching that either as I’ve no idea on what Big Ben is going to be like, and he’s famously bad away from home in games they should win. (I do think they cover though in fairness)

  15. bigmick 2 weeks ago

    Agree with that Adam reason I’m siding with the Broncos plus they have a good record against the Titans and beat them last season. Who knows how big Ben will do upon return but I reckon they’ll hand it off to Conner quite a bit. Hoping their d will see them thru. Fingers crossed I do better tonight than yesterday.

  16. nflfan 2 weeks ago

    Well done lads steelers and unders was the way
    Good info and write ups
    Roll on next week ☘️

  17. bigmick 2 weeks ago

    Thanks nflfan feel better that I got one right and had a better night. Had added a couple prop bets on Fant and juedy that both came up. Nice tipping mar10bet

  18. mar10bet 2 weeks ago

    Over 43 seems a low line for 2 teams stacked in O for the TNF game. Stefanski was great for my Vikes on O last season so expect this to be a scoring game.

    • mar10bet 1 week ago

      Romped home. Also landed over 9.5 3rd 1/4 points & 7.5 4th 1/4 points so another profitable night. The 3/4 one was a laugh as they never gave the TD with over a minute to go and made the Bengals try to get in from 2. Then eventually after fouls were so backed up they had to go for the FG but landed none the less. Struggling for value on the ML’s this weekend other than maybe the Rams. So it’s either a parlay or some prop bets.

  19. bigmick 2 weeks ago

    Not sure where to post but browns v Bengals tips
    Over 43.5 points 10/11
    Mixon over 71.5 rushing yds 5/6
    Burrow over 25.5 rushing yds 5/6
    Mixon over 100 yds and scores 1+ TDs 4/1

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