After a shock win for the Detroit Lions against the Super Bowl Champion KC Chiefs on Thursday night football we have made it to the first Sunday of the NFL season so I'm back for the season to provide my favourite Spread, Total, TD Scorer and Player Props for the weekends games.

The loss of Travis Kelce and Chris Jones holding out proved too much for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to overcome on Thursday night but the drops of Kadarius Toney were the stand-out from a below-par performance from the reigning Champs. A pick-6 and two other drops really hurt his team and while the Lions performed well it was a mix of the Chiefs being poor and the Lions playing up to the game. A great start to the season.

Will there be more shocks on the board tonight? I think there's a decent chance the Browns beat the Bengals, they tend to win at least once per season in the battle of Ohio, the Buccaneers are tough to call but come in as nearly a TD underdog against the Vikings, a lot depends on Baker Mayfield but the roster around him is still pretty good. So there's a few shocks I can see of teams upsetting the odds.

One thing I will say before getting started is that Spreads and Totals in Week 1 are the sharpest they'll be with bettors shaping them all summer long.

Best Spread – Eagles -3.5 @ New England Patriots

The Super Bowl runner-up start their season at Foxbrough, a place which used to be one of the scariest in the league to go, but after starting the season on fire last season I expect them to do similar this year. They have Jalen Hurt behind the best offensive line in the league, they have one of the best defensive lines which only got deeper over the summer, arguably the best WR duo in the league, a top TE and a trio of running backs to rotate through the game in the shape or D'Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell and Rashaad Penny (as well as Boston Scott who pops up now and then) and they're still allowed to do their ruck and maul which turns any 3rd or 4th and two into an automatic gain.

They're up against one of the worst offensive rosters in the league led by Mac Jones who is probably 25th at best at his position. They have a decent RB duo but Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable with illness which would leave it all to Ezekiel Elliott who signed up recently. The pass-catching group is poor, being “led” by Juju Smith-Schuster who has shown he can't be a 1 in his career, so it may be more Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki who came over from the Dolphins. In fairness the Pats do have a good defense but I don't think they'll keep up with the Eagles.

Shout out to the Seahawks -5 hosting a decimated Rams team as my second choice.

Best Total – Panthers @ Falcons o39.5

Now, I don't rate Bryce Young, I think he's going to have a rough year in Carolina behind a poor offensive line with a severe lack of weapons to get the ball to with DJ Chark missing this week, Adam Thielen questionable and not a whole lot more around them, HOWEVER, they go up against a Falcons team which will likely struggle to generate pressure and Jonathan Mingo has been getting a lot of hype as a pass-catcher for the Panthers. Add to that an upgrade on the second half of last year with Miles Sanders toting the rock frequently, he's a talented back and I'm looking forward to seeing how he does as a full RB1.

The Falcons will be a run heavy team once more after drafting Bijan Robinson at the top of the draft, they add him to Tyler Allgeier who topped 1,000 yards on the ground last year, they have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines and a trio of tight ends who they love for Art Smith to be able to replicate the offense he had in Tennessee with the Titans. I don't mind 2nd year Desmond Ridder and there could be a breakout for Drake London and Kyle Pitts this year.

I think this will be sneaky high-scoring so I'll take it over the low total on the board.

Best TD Scorer(s)

There's not many times you'll be able to find Christian McCaffrey at EVEN money as he is tonight (Bet365/888Sport) – The 49ers are going with Brock Purdy at QB so that should mean a lot of work for CmC on the ground and pass-catching. He's my favourite to lead the league in TDs this year and while he faces a tough defense in week 1 I think he'll find the endzone.

A long, long shot is Mycole Pruitt for the Falcons, available at 22/1 (PaddyPower) he might be the third choice TE but he scored 4 time in the 10 games he caught a pass last year and while I think Kyle Pitts scores a few more this year he and Jonnu Smith at 17/2 (Skybet) should still pop up now and then.

Best Player Prop

The Texans won't have an easy year with a lack of pass-catching talent on the team and a rookie QB making his first starts, and facing the Ravens on the road in week 1 isn't exactly a tempting spot to look for a prop on one of their players, BUT Dameon Pierce longest rush o12.5 yards is the one I'm landing on tonight. He's a tough runner who loves contact so he'll bash through any gaps and he topped this line in 8 of the 13 games he played in last season before missing the final few games through injury.

Good Luck if you're betting on the games tonight, should be a cracking start to the next 20+ weeks of NFL ACTION!

Adam Walford @TouchdownTips – Find full game previews on

  1. nflfan 8 months ago

    Hi Adam and all followers
    Two prop QB bets to start with
    Sam Howell o 211.5 pass yards
    Arizona secondary isn’t the best and with
    All targets fit for start expect Howell to. Throw a lot
    In college for North Carolina he was pass happy
    I think the line is low
    Also B mayfield o 232.5 pass yards Brady has gone but most targets remain while mayfield no Brady I still expect tampa to play in similar way and target the wide outs and TE
    Both beta at 5/6 general
    Good luck all ☘️☘️

    • TDTips 8 months ago

      That’s a very polite way to talk about anything on the Cardinals team this year! It’s one of the worst rosters I can remember starting the season.
      I do like Howell as well, finished the season with a good game, admittedly in a dead rubber, so I’m interested to see how he does although it’s a stay away in week 1 for me, also new OC there which probably means more creativity and passing as well with Bienamy coming from the Chiefs.

  2. lee cunliffe 8 months ago

    Good evening gents been long time coming nfl Sunday.

    4 I fancy tonight
    Tampa +6
    Green bay ML
    Tennesee +3
    San Diego-3

    Got a few squid on them plus the rolling acca at 10/1

    Done a few bet builders too bet365 good for combining them. 1 I found in betfaif for the. IKEA game which has a chance at 50/1
    Jefferson 1st td, vikes win, cousins 300yds makerfield 250 yes. Asking a lot but for 50/1 in game I’ll be watching.

    Sky done the enhanced 3 teams to get 20pts
    49ers, vikings and cincinatfi that looks good. Only worry is fitness of burrow for cinci but 7/4 is my last bet for night.

    Good luck and enjoy

  3. MJT 8 months ago

    Love the Eagles pick Adam but I can’t follow as I try to avoid betting on my own team. Here’s hoping it lands easily for you though!

    My props for today:

    J.K Dobbins Over 61.5 Rushing yards @ 1.88 Unibet
    Love this spot for Dobbins against the leagues worst team last season against the rush. Now’s hes fully healthy and with hopefully a good game script I can see him going well over 70 yards if not more.

    Nico Collins Over 3.5 Receptions @ 2.10 Skybet
    Based on the play above I also have to take this one on how the game script is likely to go. The Texans will need to throw the ball and there are really very little options for them now that Cooks, Moore, Dorsett & Akins have all departed. He averaged 3.7 receptions last season but when Cooks was out this increased to 5.7 and his targets almost 9. He will be the No.1 receiver and Marlon Humphrey is out today which will also help.

    Jahan Dotson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.86 Unibet
    Dotson should thrive in this match up against a Cardinals team who allowed the 2nd most points per game last season. Terry McLaurin is looking like he will play but he is only just recently back from injury so may well be eased in which will only help. He also looked to have a good connection with Sam Howell in the Ravens pre season game making 5 catches and going for 76 yards.

    Justin Fields Over 59.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
    This would have landed in 9 out of the last 10 games including when he managed 71 against the Packers last season. The Packers were also the 7th worst team against the run in 2022. I expect him to go well over 70 today.

    AJ Dillon Over 41.5 Yards @ 1.88 Unibet and AJ Dillon Over 10.5 Rush Attempts @ 2.10 Skybet
    The bears were the 2nd worst team against the rush in 2022 so expecting a big game from Dillon. No Christian Watson today either so Packers are likely to go run heavy with Dillon alongside Jones. Expect him to get close to 15 carries if not more depending on game script.

    Calvin Ridley Over 63.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.88 Unibet
    Ridley makes his NFL comeback and I think he will start with a bang. Looked good in pre season and already seems to have a good connection with Lawrence. His reception line is set at 5.5 so I would be shocked even he doesn’t go for over this line.

    Deshaun Watson Over 23.5 rushing Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
    Watson averaged nearly 30 rushing yards last season and with a potential high scoring game I like Watson to get much closer to that 30 yard figure again.

    Justin Jefferson Over 89.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
    With Cook leaving the Vikings it seems pretty clear they are now going away from the run heavy team of the past. Jefferson averaged 106 yards last season along with 7.5 catches per game. He is the primary target for Cousins and will see plenty of action again today.

    D Carr Over 31.5 Pass Attempts @ 2.0 Skybet and Over 243.5 Passing Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
    Expecting a big bounce back year this season from Carr and he has major weapons at his disposal. The Titans were the worst team against the pass last season so I expect Carr to put up big numbers today.

    Best of luck all

    • MJT 8 months ago

      Also adding:

      Dallas Goedert Over 40.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
      Goedert passed this number in 11 out of 15 games last season. The main focus for the Patriots will be trying to stop Hurts on the run along with the duo of Brown / Smith which could allow Goedert plenty of time in the middle of the field. He took a catch for 15 or more yards in 12 out of 15 games last season and a play like this again should easily see this go over.

      Tyler Higbee Over 42.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.83 Paddy Power and Over 5.5 Receptions @ 2.45 Unibet
      With Kupp out for this game Higbee is likely to be Staffords go to player in a game they are likely to be chasing. He also averaged 6.6 receptions and 58 yards in the early part of last season when Kupp was playing. He also gets a favourable match up against a Seahwanks team that was 29th against Tight Ends.

  4. nflfan 8 months ago

    0-2 from me
    Mayfield well short on 176 yds
    Howell on 199 yds
    Poor start 🤦‍♂️

  5. MJT 8 months ago

    8/14 winners on the player props on Sunday. Really close calls with a couple.

    Just 1 yard short on the Fields rushing yards & Dotson had 35 yards / 4 catches / 6 targets in the 1st half & then only 1 catch on 1 target in the 2nd half to end up 2 yards short.

    J.K Dobbins Over 61.5 Rushing yards @ 1.88 Unibet
    Nico Collins Over 3.5 Receptions @ 2.10 Skybet ✅
    Jahan Dotson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.86 Unibet (2 yards short) ❌
    Justin Fields Over 59.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 yard short!) ❌
    AJ Dillon Over 41.5 Yards @ 1.88 Unibet
    AJ Dillon Over 10.5 Rush Attempts @ 2.10 Skybet ✅
    Calvin Ridley Over 63.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.88 Unibet
    Deshaun Watson Over 23.5 rushing Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
    Justin Jefferson Over 89.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
    D Carr Over 31.5 Pass Attempts @ 2.0 Skybet ✅
    D Carr Over 243.5 Passing Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
    Dallas Goedert Over 40.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
    Tyler Higbee Over 42.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.83 Paddy Power
    Tyler Higbee Over 5.5 Receptions @ 2.45 Unibet


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