Here it is, the precipice of the crucible of the NFL season (check me out with the fancy ass words) as the #6 seed Tennesee Titans take on the #2 seed Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC while the NFC was a little more predictable with the #2 Green Bay Packers travelling to the bay to take on the #1 seed San Francisco 49ers.
Tennessee Titans +7 @ Kansas City Chiefs: Total – 52
The Titans are in a terrible spot here, it's their 4th consecutive road game, it's essentially the 4th playoff game they've played in a row as the final game of the season was win and in against the Texans. It's the 4th game in a row they've played a division winner as well and despite it being the 2nd seed probably the toughest opposition they've faced. They beat the blunt Patriots in the first playoff game despite being out-gained and they somehow smashed the Ravens last week despite losing the yardage battle by 200 and the Ravens having 8 drives stopped in the Titans half. It was a great defensive performance from them as they won in crucial moments once again.
I think their luck or pluck will run out in this one though, they've been able to win their games thus far by running the freak alien Derrick Henry into the ground. He's had 96 carries for 588 yards at 6.1 ypc in his last three games, he's the first player to have 175+ yards in 3 consecutive games, and has the highest amount of rush yards over an 8 game span in history. He's crazy. That will obviously be the gameplan coming into this one but I'm just not sure they will be able to keep it close enough for that to work.
The Chiefs were 24-0 in the second quarter last week but went into the half in the lead as they scored 3 TDs in 3:27 game minutes with Travis Kelce going into the half as the first player ever to have 3 receiving TDs in one quarter of a game. It was an amazing game to watch. The Chiefs in fact tied an NFL record with 7 consecutive touchdown drives. I think they'll bring that form into this game and they'll get out to too big a lead for the Titans to keep up with.
Ryan Tannehill has only thrown for 15 completions in their two playoff games, for a whole 160 yards, 8 of those completions have gone to tight ends and that position group has caught 2 of the 3 touchdown passes he's thrown in the postseason. Jonnu Smith made a brilliant catch last week to open the scoring while Anthony Firkser scored against the Patriots in the wild card round.
A weird quirk has resulted in the Tennesee Titans having not kicked a field goal since week 15, and they haven't scored one since week 13. In fact their now kicker Greg Joseph is yet to attempt a field goal for t.5he team. It's due in part to their amazing red zone offense which is 100% in the last 3 weeks and nearly 80% on the season scoring TDs from inside the final 20 yards.
I think the Chiefs win and cover, I can't see the Titans scoring enough to be close.
- Ryan Tannehill o1.5 passing TDs – 2.20 (365)
- Titans u1.5 field goals – 1.72 (365)
- LONGSHOT – Anthony Firkser anytime TD – 11/1 (Uni/888)
Green Bay Packers +7.5 @ San Francisco 49ers: Total – 46.5
The Packers dispatched the Seahawks last week in a predictably close game given the record of both those teams during the regular season, as so often the Packers scored first and early then on the whole ran the ball to see the game out, not great fun to watch but it's worked for them through the season. The 49ers destroyed the Vikings who couldn't move the ball at all, they held Dalvin Cook to the worst yards of his career and the team to 200 yards of total offense. A very impressive performance from a fully fit 49ers side.
They have a talented defensive line filled with 1st round draft picks, Dee Ford returned and it made a big difference to their stats, every one of their stars finished with at least 1 sack on the day with Nick Bosa getting two. They stopped the run game and caused Kirk Cousins fits in the pass game. The Packers too managed to get good pressure on the opposing QB. The Smith brothers, Preston and Za'darius had 25.5 combined sacks during the season and ended last week with two apiece.
The regular season game between these two ended in domination by the a beaten up 49ers team as they won 37-8. The Packers did lose offensive lineman Brian Bulaga but it was a dominant performance by SF.
Unfortunately for the Packers they only seem to have one pass catcher who has any ability and I think the 49ers will be able to cover him, either with Richard Sherman by himself when he's on the right side of the field or by double teaming him everywhere else. That leaves Rodgers with the likes of Allan Lazard, Juke Kumerow and Geronimo Allison to throw too which isn't exactly a deadly offense. They do have a good run game though with Aaron Jones finishing the yearon 19 TDs, 16 of them on the ground. It's worth noting though that while he scored 8 TDs on the road this year they came in only 3 of their 8 road games. 4 of them vs Dallas, and 2 each v Minnesota and KC. So he didn't score much on the road, but when he did they were multiple.
The 49ers ran the ball a lot last week and during the season. It looked like Raheem Mostert was taking over the reigns, but last week messed it all up as Tevin Coleman had 22 carries for 105 yards and 2 TDs. Mostert just the 12 for 58. So I'm lost as to who will have the most carries in this one. The wide receivers seem like they're now led by Deebo Samuel who improved through the year. He finished on 6 TDs this year, 3 through the air and 3 on the ground. While Kendrick Bourne proved a reliable red zone target finishing the regular season with 5 TDs from 6 receptions down there and he had a TD on the opening drive last week with 40 yards.
I think the 49ers are the more talented and better coached team and I can't see anything but them winning.
I also like… the teaser on the Chiefs and the 49ers which brings them down to -1 and -1.5 respectively at 1.83 odds. I believe you can only do this on Bet365 or Redzone in the UK. You can do Alt. handicaps but it reduces the odds to around 1,72 so a knock down on the teaser.
I was looking at the SB and if you think the faves are going to win then I think the best way of attacking it is 3.10 on Chiefs to beat the 49ers and 3.40 on the 49ers to beat the Chiefs. It's better odds than the 1.67 available on the “name the finalists” on Paddypower.
Good Luck with whatever you're on this weekend, should be some cracking games.
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