A terrible week for me last week, a one-off this season as nothing came in. The Jets somehow beat my Bengals with a ton of points, the Chargers lost at home, Zeke didn't score with a backup QB despite having a big game and the Lions were so dominated they couldn't even throw the ball to Swift a couple of yards down the field.

But we're still in profit on the year, and looking to bounce back here.

NFL Week 9

Best Spread

It's one of the best weeks in the last month for games this weekend, but the spreads seem to be spot on again. There's a lot of people who like the Chargers to beat the Eagles but I'm off of the Chargers after seeing bits of their last two games, it seems to have fallen off for Herbert, sure he might bounce back here but I'm ignoring that game.

I actually think my Bengals win against the Browns but I'm not willing to jinx them. The Browns are beaten up while the Bengals are pretty much at full health, it's their best chance in a couple of years to win against them and they've been covering the spreads even in those defeats.

I'm going to take a little risk though on the Raiders winning in New York. It's safe to say it's been a roller-coaster year for them off the field overcoming Gruden's release and now seeing one of their stars on his way to LV Pen. after a horrible incident in the week.

But they've been surprisingly good so far and with Darren Waller returning I think Derek Carr will still be able to move the ball. This bet though is as much a fade of Daniel Jones and the Giants as it is a bet on the Raiders. Jones has a horrible home record winning just 5 games at the Metlife in his career and his options are still limited through injury.

We know Saquon Barkley is missing out again so it will be Devontae Booker at RB, not great. Sterling Shepard misses out but Kadarius Toney will play before inevitably picking up an injury after a few plays. They just lack depth and have been killed with cluster injuries at WR.

Raiders -3 @ 10/11 (Everywhere)

Best Total

Right, let's get back on the total train. I actually had a couple of winners on personal bets and selections last week on totals. Maybe I'm finally getting my eye in?

There's one I've been high on all week and despite it falling from 43 points on Monday night I'm still going to be taking the Patriots v Panthers game to go under 41.5 points which is the price everywhere now, bumped up a touch from 41 on the news that McCaffrey should be back.

It's unknown whether the Panthers are starting Sam Darnold coming through a concussion and shoulder injury or PJ Walker off of a 3 from 22 game when he came in as relief a couple of games ago. Either way it's not good for the passing game, and the Panthers want to push the run game anyway with 40+ carries on the ground last week against the Falcons.

The Patriots like to run the ball as well, typified by an 8 minute field goal drive to essentially wind down their game against the Chargers last week.

Both teams are stronger on defense than offense and want to run the ball, that all leads me to the under here.

Patriots v Panthers – Under 41.5 @ 10/11 (Everywhere)

Best TD Scorer

It's a weird week for TD prices, I like a lot of tight ends to find the endzone this week and that means a lot of 3/1+ prices. CJ Uzomah, Albert Okwuegbunam, Tyler Conklin all have decent matchups and have increasing workloads in recent weeks.

So do I go for a longer shot, or do I play it safe? Why not a little of both.

Cooper Kupp is 4/5 at Bet365. I can't ignore that price on someone with 10 TDs this year going up against a team who have injuries in the secondary and are particularly poor vs. slot receivers.

And my bigger price is going to have to be Big Al, Albert Okwuegbunam for the Denver Broncos against the Cowboys. It looks like Noah Fant is going to miss out as he's on the Covid list so that should mean more for the big man in the middle of the field coming off of 3 receptions last week while Fant had 4 and averaged 6 targets per game this season. I think he's up around 6 or 7 targets and I'm hoping he finds the endzone again at 9/2 on Paddypower and 365.

Best TD scorers – Cooper Kupp – 4/5 (365), Albert O – 9/2 (PP/365)


I'll stick with those 4, I've got a couple of props I like but I'm struggling to find anything I'm really interested in. Jarvis Landry over rec yards and receptions, Hayden Hurst over on rec. yards with Pitts likely getting covered by Lattimore (might be worth a look on his under actually) Joe Burrow to throw an interception is evens. As always Gesicki and/or Waddle receptions 4.5 and 5.5 respectively.

But nothing that I think is completely wrong this week.

Good luck if you follow along, Adam (@TouchdownTips on twitter)

9 Comments
  1. bigface 4 weeks ago

    Great tipping as per! We all have off weeks. I was still up last week from some of your insight.
    Anyone else back the packers before Rodgers got covid or was it just me?

  2. harleec7 4 weeks ago

    Patriots -3.5 line is currently -3.0, vs panthers

    La Chargers -4 vs Eagles

    Raiders -3 vs Giants

    3 fold 7.75/1 on 365

    Add cowboys -10 for 16/1

  3. harleec7 4 weeks ago

    Patriots -3.5 line is currently -3.0, vs panthers

    La Chargers -4 vs Eagles

    Raiders -3 vs Giants

    3 fold 7.75/1 on 365

    Add cowboys -10 for 16/1

    1
  4. nflfan 4 weeks ago

    LA rams ml
    Buffalo bills -5.5
    Houston Texans +12
    Cleveland browns + 7.5
    Alternative handicaps skybet 7-4
    🍀

    1
  5. nflfan 4 weeks ago

    😱 omg buffalo

  6. TDTips 4 weeks ago

    Some huge upsets again this week, this last fortnight has been pretty crazy in the NFL

    1
    • harleec7 4 weeks ago

      Very very tight season especially in the AFC, Broncos putting up 30 points on Dallas before they’ve even scored? After trading Von Miller mental.

      Titans beating the Rams on defensive solidarity? And only 196 yards of offense mental.

      Jaguars holding the Bills to 6 points? Chaotic

      2
  7. harleec7 4 weeks ago

    Early line picks for this week.

    GB packers -5.5 vs Seahawks

    No Wilson for the Hawks who travel to Lambeau, hard enough game for the Hawks with Wilson. Rodger is back for the packers this week and what a defensive effort to hold the Chiefs to a mere 13 points with no help from the Offense last night. I’m expecting double point victory for the Packers.

    Pats -2.5 vs Browns

    Still riding my bias here but with the Bills slip up the Patriots could enter our match up with the Bills in 4 games time in prime position. Dominate defensive showing against the Panthers and I expect the trend to continue against the Browns, I still don’t trust Mayfield to win a game with his arm and that’s what Bill will make them do.

    Cardinals vs Panthers -10

    Murray and Hopkins are back enough said. Too much firepower for the Panthers to keep up with. Once Darnold is throwing game over.

    LA rams -4 vs 49ers

    Defensively the Rams only gave up 196 total yards against the Titans. It was more Stafford and the offense that caused Rams to drop this game, I can’t see the offense being that bad for a second straight week. The 49ers are in crisis mode this is a huge game for them and I don’t think Jimmy G has the metal for it.

    2
  8. harleec7 3 weeks ago

    As the line may move and there is no NFL thread just yet Patriots versus Browns -1.5 Patriots is an absolute no-brainer.

    Any game the Patriots are favourites by less than -5 points without facing an Elite offense. Bet the mortgage.

    This is a got to have it game for us Patriots, going into this week half a game back from the Bills the expectation will be to better them or go into our first head to head against them equal. This game also has major ramifications on playoff seedings, at home with the better coaching I expect is to pick up this victory.

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