NFL Week 9; Betting picks

First up, apologies for the lack of posts over the last week or so. I was at the game in London last week, went down on the Saturday straight after work, a few beers on the train, checked in, went out, next thing I knew it was Sunday morning and my head was banging, met my mate in the city at 12, so… long story short, I ran out of time to get anything done last week.

I'm at the game this weekend too, but only going down for the Sunday so not as much alcohol and a full Saturday evening to do it all. If you see a short hairy man in a Gio Bernard jersey then give him a shout and get him a beer!

Bet 1; Jacksonville Jaguars +1; 1.91 (Everywhere)

This is mainly a bet on the relative familiarity that the Jaguars have with making the trip over to the UK. It's the 7th year running that they've been over, they've won 3, lost 3, but they have their routine, same hotel every year, come over on the same day, do the same things, and that counts for a lot in the NFL. The Texans are making the trip for the first time so there's an advantage to the Jags there. The Jags are probably the best supported team at Wembley games as well because of the familiarity so a slight bump there for them. The Texans have Deshaun Watson under centre with one eye after he got kicked in the eye last week. Their offensive line isn't great and the way to beat the Texans is to get pressure on the QB. The Jags can definitely do that. The earlier game this season finished with the Texans lowest points of the season, a 13-12 win to them at home. I'm happy to get points on the Jags.

Bet 2; Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5; 1.91 (Everywhere)

I should probably get off of the Tampa train, Jameis just keeps screwing me over, but I look at their offense and see yards and points, I look at their defense and they should be able to stop/slow the Seattle running attack; they've kept CmcC, Barclay, Kamara, the 49ers to very little and are ranked #1 on rush defense DVOA according to footballoutsiders. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will probably get at least 2 TDs between them, they could do with help on the ground, they can't rely on Winston being the leading rusher each week. The Seahawks at home this year? 2-2 with a point differential of -20, 2 wins of 1 point, and two losses. They've really not blown anyone away this year so I'm happy getting 5 points on the Bucs.

Bet 3; Robby Anderson anytime TD; 3.00 (888/Unibet)

This is going to be a weird way to start a handicap. The Jets are an absolute state of a franchise at the moment and that was born out this week on trade deadline day when they apparently offered pretty much everyone with any kind of value around to the league. LeVeon Bell, Robby Anderson and superstar safety Jamal Adams were supposedly all available for the right cash. That kind of act isn't exactly conducive of good locker room morale… BUT… What's the best way to fix a locker room? Winning games, and what better way to do it than playing a team who is actively trying NOT to win. This week the Dolphins put their best cornerback, and probably best player full stop, on IR, and they were already giving up a lot of big plays. It bodes well for Darnold and Anderson. The Dolphins also can't get pressure on opposing QBs so he should be able to find his man.

Bet 4; The big(ger) one; Jonnu Smith anytime TD; 4.75 (888/Unibet)

Not the hardest handicap on this one, he scored last week with Delanie Walker out and Walker is again out of this one. He completed 6 of his 7 targets last week for 78 yards and that TD. The Titans offense has improved since Ryan Tannehill took over as he's so much more aggressive than Mariota was, he'll throw the ball into tight windows and that's what the Titans need, and while he will spread the ball around (They've had 9 different pass catchers in each week of Tannehill starting) he does seem to like the athletic Jonnu Smith.

Bet recommendations;

• Jaguars +1 – 1.91
• Tampa +5 – 1.91
• Robby Anderson anytime – 3.00 (888/Unibet)
• Jonnu Smith anytime – 4.75 (888/Unibet)

Good Luck if you follow. If you're at Wembley tomorrow enjoy the day, it's a great day out!

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

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