Week 6 had highs and lows for the column, the London game went very well with Henry and Bateman going over their lines for the props and the Ravens covering a low-scoring game as expected. The props both landed in the evening games too with Josh Downs and Jonnu Smith both hitting their lines on receptions but the spread and total bets let me down. The Eagles may have been looking ahead to this weeks game against the Dolphins when they lost a game they should have comfortably won against the Jets but 3 interceptions from Jalen Hurts will kill you against anyone and the Bengals offense disappeared in the second half as they won a close game against the Seahawks.
On to Week 7 though and the Sky games this week offer the best slate they've had all year with the 5-1 Lions taking on the 4-2 Ravens in the early game, a usually high-scoring AFC West clash in the 925 slot and closing out the evening with the Dolphins and Eagles both coming in at 5-1. We will get a chance to find out whether the upstarts in the NFC and AFC are worthy of the praise of whether they've just been beating up terrible teams.
Buccaneers -2.5 vs. the Falcons
I'll admit I'm struggling a little this week for my favourite spread on the slate as there are a LOT of injuries around the league which makes it tough to judge how many teams will fare tonight.
So I was looking for a team at home giving up less than a field goal and the NFC South provides that with the Buccs looking to bounce back from their loss to the Lions last weekend against a Falcons side who are far better at home.
Baker Mayfield at QB for the Buccs is who we expected, can have good games but overall is distinctly average, but that may be enough against this Falcons team who are prone to mistakes. The offense moves mainly through Mike Evans who could have had a far bigger game last weekend if things had bounced right, he's averaging 80+ yards a game with Mayfield and while the Falcons defense has improved it will do well to slow him here.
The Buccs defense is where the game should be won though, they remain very good against the run and if you force the Falcons to throw the ball then they will likely struggle as shown by Desmond Ridder giving the ball away multiple times on the drive they needed to tie up the game against the Commanders last weekend.
Probably a low-scoring game but I fancy the Buccs to win by a TD or more.
Browns vs Colts u41
There are a lot of low totals on the board this week which is probably a look at the offensive injuries across the league and the lower scoring in general so far this season.
It's an Under I'm looking at as well as Gardner Minshew faces arguably the best defense in the league in Cleveland. Minshew threw 3 interceptions against the Jags last weekend in a winable game and facing the pressure that this Browns DL gets on a weekly basis he will likely struggle here as well.
The Browns offense hasn't been great whether it's Deshaun Watson or PJ Walker at QB so I'm not sure Watson returning after a shoulder injury is much of an upgrade at that position here. They don't have much outside of Amari Cooper in the passing game and while I think the run game will be fine here with Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, I don't see them putting up much over 20 points.
Best TD Scorer
Cooper Kupp – 6/5 (BetVictor)
In past years the injuries to players would give us the chance to snap up some value on the TD scorer market but annoyingly the bookies aren't as stupid as they used to be and have a lot of guys far shorter than expected, the Rams being the prime example having brought in Darrell Henderson, Royce Freeman and Myles Gaskin, they're all priced under 3/1 to find the endzone on Bet365 (Although Gaskin is a standout 7/1 at Unibet)
It's the Rams game I'll be looking at though as the Steelers defense isn't as fearsome as in previous years and has given up yards in the passing game this season. Cooper Kupp has returned from injury to hit 100 yards and a TD in each of his two games this season and above evens at most bookies is a price I'm fine to take.
Best Prop Bet
Joshua Dobbs o23.5 rush yards
I don't want to repeat myself on these props, so while I do like the lines for Josh Downs of the Colts (still at 3.5 against a very good defense) and Jonnu Smith (at 3.5 again) – there seems to be a lot more risk in taking them this week against good defenses.
One I didn't mention on here last week but had a winner on was Josh Dobbs using his legs for the Cardinals. He ran for 24 yards on his first scramble of the game and without James Conner there again this week he may well have to do similar against a solid Seahawks defense. He finished with 7 carries last week and has topped 40 yards in 4 of his 6 games this season.
That'll do it for the column this week, some cracking games in prospect. For the record I think the Lions may well win, I'm not convinced the Dolphins will be able to do it against a good team though, they've only faced one this year and it provided their only defeat, and this Eagles team is better than the Bills.
Good luck with your betting and remember we're on for 1700 kick-offs in the UK next weekend as we switch the clocks back.