NFL Week 5; The Stars return

After a successful weekend for my betting tips last week, including all the props landing and the TD scorer with Anthony Richardson finally seeing out a game and finding the endzone as he has done in every game of his short career so far.

The London game was a bit of a dud in the end as Desmond Ridder let everyone down and the Jags walked out easy winners, but this week should be a different story with the Jags staying in England to take on the Bills at Spurs stadium. Elsewhere in the league it was a weird week with a big mix of blow-outs and OT games.

The big news for this week is the return of Jonathan Taylor to the Colts, with a HUGE new contract, they have obviously looked at the division seen that it's easily winable and paid their top man to bolster the rushing attack, and the return of Cooper Kupp to the LA Rams to probably take a lot of the targets away from Puka Nakua (so watch out if you're on his props this weekend).

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I'll be at the London game this weekend, my first trip to the Spurs stadium, so this preview is being done on Saturday evening (just in case any news comes out before the games on Sunday…) and it's there where I'll start my previews, last week didn't go well betting wise although the Jags did quite easily cover the spread.

Jaguars +5.5 vs. Bills: 48.5

I believe this is the Jaguars first trip to the proper NFL stadium of the UK as the Bills are the official host of the game, but the fact they have spent the week over here for the first time will surely give them the advantage over a Bills team travelling over mid-week for the game.

The Jags have been frustrating this year, when they click they're very good but their redzone woes have hurt them and they'll be hoping for Zay Jones to return to give them a bit more threat in that department against a Bills team who are without lead cornerback Tre'Davious White. Calvin Ridley only had 2 receptions last week, 1 of them on a scramble play, as they focused on Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in the shorter passing game. They will need more explosivity to keep up with the Bills though so Ridley should get a lot more involved this weekend. The running game has been fine, Etienne the lead back there still they'll use Tank Bigsby and D'Ernest Johnson on 3rd downs though.

The Bills should really be 4-0 coming into this one after stomping on the upstart Dolphins last weekend with Josh Allen taking the lead in the MVP betting as a result. He will look to Stefon Diggs to continue his start to the season in the passing game as he and Gabe Davis do what they tend to do as they both found the endzone last weekend. They have more balance this year as well with James Cook taking the lead on the ground and Lat. Murray and Damien Harris doing some work in the redzone.

The Bills should win by a TD or so IF it was in Buffalo, however this will be a real test of whether travel really affects teams or not and that puts me off of taking them on the spread despite them being the better team. I'd still lean to the Bills and over on the total, I said last week that Wembley games tend to go under and Spurs games on familiar surface go over. Trevor Lawrence o15.5 rush yards – 5/6 (Bet365) my one recommendation for a bet on this game.

Best Spread

Texans +1.5 @ Falcons.

My God, what's happening to me, I went for the Colts last week (who nearly pulled out the win) and this week another bum team from the AFC South in the Texans. It's safe to say I'm drinking the Kool-aid on CJ Stroud and this Texans offense which has been surprisingly fun so far this season. They destroyed a good Steelers defense last weekend and with the connection the Nico Collins and Tank Dell in particular looking strong I think they can put up 24+ on the Falcons.

The Falcons looks like they're sticking with Desmond Ridder regardless of performance and after travelling back from London probably come into this as the lesser rested of the two. They should get Bijan Robinson 25+ touches after his performance last weekend but it's tough to change how HC and OC's do things despite what a lot of us see on the field.

To put it simply I think the Texans win outright by out-scoring their opponent so I'll happily take them getting points.

Best Total

Saints vs. Patriots u39

Two of the better defenses in the league take the field on Sunday night in this one with Derek Carr and the Saints taking on a poor Mac Jones led Patriots offense which looks like it's stuck in the dark ages.

The Saints should be able to put up a few points with Alvin Kamara settling in after his return to the league last weekend and with Chris Olave they have the best offensive talent on the field but they've struggled to put up many points in any game this season.

On the other side of the field the Patriots have struggled to score as well but with Belichick in charge they tend to keep teams down against them, so as long as Mac Jones doesn't keep giving the ball to the opposition this could well be a 14-17 slobber-knocker.

Best TD Scorer

Ja'Marr Chase – 10/11 (Paddypower)

I'll get this out there first… The Bengals have been TERRIBLE so far this year, but they have faced 4 of the better defenses in the league and simply couldn't cope with the Titans pass-rush last weekend which rushed an immobile Burrow throughout. This week though Burrow wasn't on the injury report for his calf for the first time this year and said he feels the best he has all season which has to help against a team many thought would be a shoe-in for the #1 pick next year.

Add to all the positivity over Burrow the fact that Chase was recorded after the game complaining about always being F-ing OPEN, AND the longest drought in his college and professional career AND Tee Higgins missing this game, and I can't see how Chase doesn't get 12+ receptions and at least one TD against a below-average Cardinals defense here.

Best Prop

Zach Ertz o3.5 receptions – 5/6 (SkyBet)

In the same game as above I like the TE on the other side of the ball. So far this season Ertz has 6,6,2 and 6 receptions in their 4 games so to get 5/6 on him getting 4 receptions in this one against a Bengals defense which looked all at sea last weekend looks like a gift. The Cards don't have that much else so when push comes to shove old reliable is a favoured target for Dobbs and the team.

Good luck if you're betting this weekend, I'm looking forward to the 2nd London game, not so much the 6 hours of travel, but for a once a year experience for myself I'm sure I can deal with it!

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