The end of the season has arrived, and it's done so without them having to miss any games at all. Sure there's been delays, some teams will feel hard done-by with some of the decisions made by the league, but with Covid rampant in the US it's a big achievement to have played all 240 games so far and to be able to complete the entire regular season.

With the addition of the 7th playoff team in each conference the league has got what it wanted and there's actually quite a lot at stake as we come into this week. The Chiefs have secured the AFC #1 Seed and with it a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Bills are #2 there, and the Steelers are the third seed. The 4th seed is up for grabs with the winner of the AFC South taking it, most likely the Titans, but could be the Colts should they slip up. One of 4 teams in the AFC race will miss out. It's the Browns (vs Steelers reserves), Ravens (vs. Bengals), Miami (vs. Bills, likely to rest players in the second half) and the Colts (vs. 1 win Jacksonville) – It seems like it will stay as is and the Colts will miss out on 11 wins. Harsh, but they shouldn't have lost the opener to the useless Jags!

The NFC is lesser quality but has more going on… The Packers will secure the #1 seed with a win against the Bears. However, if they slip up… then the Saints can clinch that spot IF the Seahawks also win, and create a 3-way tie… the Seahawks could snatch that 1 seed IF they win, the Packers lose and the Saints fail to win… does that make sense? It SHOULD basically stay the same, but it could be one of three teams getting homefield. It's actually quite significant with these teams. Outside of those, Washington are win and in, they play in the Sunday night game and the Eagles seem to be resting everyone to allow them to win and stop the Cowboys getting in (Cowboys and Giants have a chance depending who wins their matchup) – The Rams are in at the moment, they play the Cardinals without Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson… if the Rams lose (and Cards win) then it all comes down to the Packers and Bears game… IF the Rams lose and Bears win, then the Bears AND Cardinals get in and they miss out… Again, I think that's correct! https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-playoff-clinching-scenarios-for-week-17-of-2020-season

So, on to the final previews.

Spread/Moneyline

The Cowboys need to win to have a chance of making the post-season and I think they've got too much offensively for the Giants to keep up with them. They've stepped up on defense in recent weeks and have been racking up points now that Andy Dalton has settled into the system. He's got a great trio of WRs in Cooper, Lamb and Gallup and Zeke looked back to health last week saying it was the best he's felt all season with over 100 yards on the ground. The Giants on the other hand will be starting Daniel Jones who's not looked right since his hamstring injury, his mobility is key for him, without it he's below par. Colt McCoy is poor too.

Essentially I don't think the Giants will be able to score enough to keep this one close, I'm a little worried about the line going towards the Giants, that doesn't make sense to me. Cowboys moneyline – 4/5 (365take them at 10/11 on -1.5 if you want, but the odds aren't far apart.

TD Scorer

There will be some big priced TD scorers this week, picking who it will be however won't be easy. There's a ton of movement on rosters with teams resting players or just giving up and giving the younger players a shot, I'm trying to stick to teams who need wins and seem more settled, with that in mind I don't mind Zeke at evens (see above) – But I'll stick with JK Dobbins who's come on really well in the second half of the season, Mark Ingram has been a healthy scratch in recent weeks and misses this with illness, while Gus Edwards is questionable but likely to play with a neck injury. Dobbins has scored a rushing TD in his last 5 games, and should carry that on against a below-average Bengals rush defense. JK Dobbins – 5/4 (Unibet) happy with 11/10 everywhere else. A few longshots I have had a poke on – James Washington 11/2 (Uni), Smythe 15/2, Shaheen 21/2 (both Uni), KeShawn Vaughn – 15/2 (Sportnation), Darrynton Evans – 9/1 (Skybet), JJAW 20/1 (Skybet). Again, it's a crap-shoot but there will be big price scorers around the league.

I think I'll stick to that for this week, player props are also all over the shop and there's limited selections on a lot of games. If there's a passing line on Cam take the under, Jerrick McKinnon for the 49ers had low lines last week and flew over his rec. line take the over on him if it's low again.

  • Cowboys moneyline
  • JK Dobbins anytime TD scorer

Check out my site – TDTips.com for very in-depth previews, I've mentioned the permutations in every game and the players who are in and out.

Happy New Year to all, I hope the Christmas period went well.

Adam (@TouchdownTips on twitter)

18 Comments
  1. nflfan 2 weeks ago

    Simple double for me tonight
    Packers ml
    Buccaneers ml
    Coral evens
    Packers win they no 1 seed
    Buccaneers win they stay no 5 seed and play a 4 seed from nfc east with a losing record

    1
  2. Johnb 2 weeks ago

    NFL Week 17 Bets

    Teaser Treble
    1.34/1 paddy power (Already Advised)

    03/01/21
    Dallas Cowboys at NY Giants (18:00)
    NY GIANTS +8.5

    03/01/21
    Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18:00)
    TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -0.5

    03/01/21
    New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (21:25) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -0.5
    *******************

    03/01/21
    Dallas Cowboys at NY Giants (18:00)

    NY GIANTS to win
    11/10 paddy power

    The Giants opened as -4 point favourites in Vegas and are now +1.5 point dogs but the big punters are now coming in for the Giants because the bookies overreacted to last weeks games,
    Everyone knows the Cowboys offence is playing better than the Giants offence and the Giants defence is playing better than the Cowboys defence and while people are looking at the Cowboys offence against the Giants defence, it’s the other side, the Giants offence against the Cowboys defence that’s going to win and lose this game and I simply can’t trust the Cowboys defence, they look all over the place and undisciplined,
    The Cowboys defensive line don’t do their job, they leave gaps for running backs, Dallas have gone from 10th, allowing 103.5 rushing yards per game in 2019 to 32nd allowing 161.1 rushing yards per game in 2020 and its all down to being undisciplined, too aggressive and probably not doing what they are being asked to do, it makes me think that this Cowboys defensive line can be manipulated into making mistakes and if this Cowboys defensive line do what they have been doing and leaving gaps the Giants will take advantage,
    On the other side the Giants defensive line have been allowing 111.6 rushing yards per game, they need to stop Zeke Elliott and they can stop him,

    Oxn the offensive side Daniel Jones is crucial to the Giants, he may not look it but Jones is one of the best and most accurate passers of the ball in the nfl, when given time to throw he can certainly launch them and even if his fitness isn’t quite there after his hamstring injury, he’s fit enough to play so he’s fit enough to scramble for 3 & 4 yards at a time, it may not sound a lot but those small gains make a huge difference on third and fourth downs, Jones says he has to change his game because he can’t do what he’s been doing because of the hamstring but I think it’s all mind games, why else would you tell your opponent you can’t run, you just need to plant a seed of doubt and the Cowboys defensive line could adjust their game without really realising it,
    *******************

    03/01/21
    Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (21:25)

    TY HILTON over 57.5 receiving yards
    5/6 william hill (NB)

    TY Hilton has gone over this total in the last 5 games with

    60 yards from 3 receptions against the Steelers

    71 yards from 4 receptions against the Texans

    86 yards from 5 receptions against the Raiders

    110 yards from 8 receptions against the Texans

    81 yards from 4 receptions against the Titans
    *******************

    03/01/21
    Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18:00)

    ANTONIO BROWN over 55.5 receiving yards
    5/6 william hill

    Brown played against the Falcons two weeks ago, he had 5 receptions from 7 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown,
    Although Brown has only gone over this total in 3 of his 7 games this season he did have by far his best game of the season against the Falcons and there is no reason why he can’t repeat that here
    *******************

    03/01/21
    Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (21:25)

    DAVID MONTGOMERY over 78.5 rushing yards 5/6 bet365 (NAP)

    I have advised a bet on David Montgomery rushing yards for the last four games at over 61.5 yards against the Lions, over 63.5 yards against the Texans, over 62.5 yards against the Vikings and over 77.5 yards against the Jaguars and all have won by large margins,
    David Montgomery has come in to form over the last 5 games with totals of

    95 yards from 23 carries with 1 touchdown against the Jaguars

    146 yards from 32 carries with 2 touchdowns against the Vikings

    113 yards from 11 carries with 1 touchdown against the Texans

    72 yards from 17 carries with 2 touchdowns against the Lions

    103 yards from 11 carries with 0 touchdowns against the Packers
    *******************

    03/01/21
    Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (18:00)

    JUSTIN JEFFERSON over 5.5 receptions
    20/23 william hill

    with Justin Jefferson looking to break so many records it’s a bet of value,
    4 of his last 5 games have gone over this number. his receptions being

    6 receptions against the Saints
    8 receptions against the Bears
    4 receptions against the Buccaneers
    9 receptions against the Jaguars
    7 receptions against the Panthers
    *******************

    03/01/21
    Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18:00)

    TOM BRADY over 2.5 passing touchdowns
    5/4 william hill

    4
    • Deb2000 2 weeks ago

      John your nap Montgomery is down to 73.5 with Hills.

  3. Johnb 2 weeks ago

    TDTips left out touchdown scorers this week but I do like the JK Dobbins one

    • TDTips 2 weeks ago

      Wins just after half time

  4. Johnb 2 weeks ago

    If anyone can find a price on the Jets over points in first quarter, up to 2.5 points it’s worth a bet, the Jets are going for 10 games in a row for scoring first quarter points, posted it last week, bet365 may put odds up closer to kickoff but the bookies are poor for NFL bets this week,

    • taj 2 weeks ago

      Jets over 0.5 1st quarter points is 3/5 on Ladbrokes 👍🏽

      1
    • Johnb 2 weeks ago

      Worth a bet as the Jets always start well

    • BaDkO 2 weeks ago

      Jets over 0.5 1st quarter points is available at 1.73 with Pinnacle, for those eligible to bet there.

    • Johnb 2 weeks ago

      No, on Jets points scored in the first quarter, in the last 9 games they have scored 3 or more

    • Johnb 2 weeks ago

      Thanks, ignore last comment, it was for someone else

  5. mar10bet 2 weeks ago

    Do you mean on the spread John?

    • Johnb 2 weeks ago

      No, on Jets points scored in the first quarter, in the last 9 games they have scored 3 or more

  6. mar10bet 2 weeks ago

    Magic. Ladbrokes one looks like the spread

    • mar10bet 2 weeks ago

      Take it back it’s actually a quarter market like taj says. That’s getting backed 👍🏻

    • taj 2 weeks ago

      Had me panicked there in case I misread it 🤣

  7. Bamlfc 2 weeks ago

    Hi all nfl bet tonight some teams a lot to play for

    Titans -7
    Packers -4.5
    Dallas ml
    Washington -4

    Good luck if you follow 👌👌

    1
  8. nflfan 2 weeks ago

    Winner from me 👍
    Winners all around Adam and John b
    👏👏👏
    Roll on playoffs and let’s keep it going
    With winners
    ☘️

    1

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