NFL Tips Week 15: Chiefs to make their mark

The Buffalo Bills won the AFC East last night with a comfortable win over the Broncos in Denver, Josh Allen looked great rushing in for a couple and throwing for a couple as well. It's nice to see someone other than the Pats winning the division. They still have an outside shot of the #2 seed in the AFC with the Steelers.

The Packers kept up their hopes of the 1 seed in the NFC with a win against the Panthers, they only scored 3 points in the second half. Not entirely sure what happened there, as it was 2am and it had been a long day. They couldn't be stopped first half as Rodgers walked in and Robert Tonyan found the endzone.

The teaser landed easy enough and should have set people up for the weekend.

Spread

It's mostly the B's again, Buccs, Browns, Bills (won already) that I fancy this week, Buccs 6.5 faves at the Falcons, Browns 6.5 against the Giants. They all should win, the Falcons without Julio aren't the same, but I'm avoiding that one. The Browns take on the Giants with Colt McCoy and without James Bradbury in the secondary, they rely on their defense and that weakens it considerably.

But I think I've got to concentrate on the big game of the weekend with the Chiefs taking on the Saints in New Orleans. It's a potential Superbowl preview, but for me there's only one winner here. Well, apart from the viewers who get to see two good teams take each other on.

I really like the Chiefs giving 2.5 points this weekend. I'm shocked that it's dropped under the 3 that it's been stuck at all week so I guess the Sharps see something that I don't in this one. The Chiefs have only lost one game this year against the Raiders, they've strolled through most games without really impressing, but the one game they HAD to win this year was against the Ravens and they were comfortable in that one.

They're actually a fairly shallow offense, the run game isn't great, Clyde hasn't done a whole lot on the ground but is good through the air, Lev Bell if anything has made them go away from the run game even more. It's mainly Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in the passing game. Kelce leads the league in receiving yards and is looking to be the first TE to win the receiving title, he's on 1,250 yards with 9 TDs (He's actually second now after Diggs put up a lot last night) – Tyreek has 14 receiving TDs this year to lead the league. So it's mainly those two, but Watkins, Hardman, Robinson all chip in to get the ball moving on occasion.

They've not been great defensively but they can score quickly as shown last week where they turned a 10 point deficit quickly into a 20 point lead.

The Saints welcome back Drew Brees at QB after a month off with 11 rib fractures. That's probably not great. They're without Michael Thomas for three games now, so will get him back healthy for the playoffs. He has missed most of the season anyway. It will probably be a whole lot of Alvin Kamara again as it was earlier in the season, he'll probably be over 6.5 receptions line, and they'll need him to score really. The one pass-catcher I like is Jared Cook, the Chiefs have been poor against the Tight end this year and Cook has 6 TDs this year after two in the last two weeks.

Basically I think they've got too much for a Saints. I like the Chiefs team total at 27.5. The Saints have been good on defense recently but they've not faced anyone good and this is the best offense in the league.

Chiefs -2.5 @ 10/11 (most places)

Total

I like the Bears and Vikings to be a surprisingly high-scoring game. They're both at 6-7 with a chance of making the playoffs so should be both going for it, and amazingly Trubisky has been playing all right recently. They've gone over the total in 5 games this year, Trubisky was at QB for 4 of those games and led them to 30+ points last week. I think the Vikings still score 20+ as well, so I'll be taking the over in this game.

Bears v Vikings over 47 @ 10/11 (Most)

TD Scorer

It's been dismal from me recently, fingers crossed it will turn around soon. This week I'll be taking TY Hilton to score against the Texans as he did when they played a couple of weeks ago. He loves playing the Texans, averaging 100+ yards against them in 17 games in his career with 11 TDs.

He started the season poorly but has 4 TDs in his last 4 games and I fancy him to make that 5 this week.

TY Hilton anytime TD @ 7/5 (PaddyPower)

There are a couple of longshots, Adam Shaheen for the Dolphins, I've had a win on him this year and Mike Gesicki might not play after dislocating his shoulder last week, so he could be in for more targets.

Player prop

Dallas Goedert seems like he's Jalen Hurts favourite target. I'm surprised to see his line at 3.5 receptions this week against the Cardinals. He's had 5+ receptions in 4 of his last 5 games including last week. The Cards aren't exactly the best defense in the league and I can only assume it's because of Hurts at QB and the perceived lack of passing attempts.

Dallas Goedert o3.5 receptions @ 10/11 (365/Hills)

I like Kenyan Drake receiving yards in that game as well with Chase Edmonds expected to be out he should get more work in the passing game. It's set at 9.5 on 365 at 4/5. Up to 13.5 on Skybet now

Summary

• Chiefs -3
• Bears v Vikings o47
• TY Hilton anytime
• Goedert o3.5 receptions

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