First off a mention for Paul. I didn't know the man in person, unfortunately, I never got the opportunity to meet him, but he was kind enough to take me on as the NFL writer for the last couple of years, something which I greatly appreciate. The amount of comments on his passing shows how well thought of he was in the betting community and it's a big loss. My thoughts go to his friends and family at this time. I urge you all to keep an eye on the site and when a fund-raising cause is announced you think about donating.

Spreads

I like the Saints and the Rams against the spread tonight. The Saints played the Falcons a couple of weeks back and won by 15. They got constant pressure on Matt Ryan and he could barely complete a pass late in that game. You've got to think they'll be better this week after seeing this Saints team two weeks ago, but I'm not convinced they'll be able to protect Ryan long enough. Julio Jones injured his hamstring in that game, and was ineffective, he had last week off to recover and says he's fine to go this week which helps the Saints. He's averaged 111 yards per game the last 5 times they've hosted the Saints.

Sean Payton is now 7-0 in the last two years with a backup QB and Taysom Hill looks to make that 8 here. He's not the best passer in the league but has read the memo to throw the ball 5 yards down the field to Michael Thomas and it looks like he can manage that. He's rushed for 2 TDs in each of his two starts and I wouldn't be shocked to see him score tonight (11/10 isn't a bad price on him) One person he seems to struggle to get involved though is Alvin Kamara who has 1 reception for -2 yards in those games with Hill. Murray has been the more effective rusher for them.

I don't see how the Falcons have turned things around enough to win here.

Saints -3 @ 11/10 (365)

Sean McVay's Rams are 6-0 against the Cardinals since he took over with winning margins of 7,27,22,34,16 and 33 points. Admittedly only the first two were against rookie Kyler and Kliff, so while it looks extreme it might not mean a whole lot. This one though is based on Kyler's health. He's only had 5 carries in each of the last two and has slid short of the sticks in both games to avoid contact after straining his AC joint. I don't think he'll be 100% again this year and if he's not rushing then the offense doesn't really work. The Cards don't get a whole lot of pressure on the QB and if Goff is clean he's a decent enough QB. I like Rams to cover the 2.5.

TD Scorer

DK Metcalf at 10/11 on BetVictor looks great. He's had 8 TDs in 6 home games this year, and looks to make it 7 in a row at home against a decent enough Giants defense, but he's unstoppable at the moment. 4/5 on Skybet is fine as well if you're blocked from Victor which is entirely possible.

As above I like Taysom Hill at 11/10, and Murray at 3/1 (PP) as decent prices for the Vikings.

Austin Ekeler returned from injury last week and had 129 scrimmage yards against the Bills. They host the Patriots this week who are ranked bottom 2 on defense according to DVOA. He had 11 catches from 16 receptions and nearly found the endzone before Joshua Kelley cultured a goal-line carry from him. They should be able to move the ball on the Patriots and at plus money I'm more than happy to have a punt on him.

Austin Ekeler @ 23/20 (Unibet/888)

Player prop

Quite a few options I like here, Tim Patrick receptions or yards for Denver against the Chiefs, Jalen Richard rec. yards for the Raiders assuming he takes the Booker role with Booker moving up to RB1, Sterling Shepard receptions line is low but it's going to be Colt McCoy which is the worry there. Ekeler rec. yards, as above he should have a decent game.

I think my official play here will be Denzel Mims o55.5 receiving yards for the Jets. Yeah, they stink, they're obviously going 0-16 this year and have no interest in winning, but Mimsy has been a bright spot since returning from injury with over 60 yards in each of the last three games for the team. He gets a decent matchup against a poor Raiders secondary so I like him to go over his line again this week.

Summary

  • Saints -3 @ 11/10 (365)
  • Austin Ekeler anytime @ 23/20 (Uni/888)
  • Denzel Mims o55.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (Skybet)

Good Luck with whatever you're on. Live life, don't hold grudges.

18 Comments
  1. TDTips 2 months ago

    Some good teaser legs this week, bring the Raiders and Packers down to 0.5 and 3, the Bills up to 7

  2. Johnb 2 months ago

    All these bets have been advised over the last few days so some lines may have moved like David Montgomery with william hill and bet365 going from 61.5 yards to 66.5 yards, so please shop around if you haven’t already backed my earlier bets because these extra yards can make a difference and it often pays to get on early

    NFL Week 13 Bets
    Teaser Treble
    (current treble record 10-3)

    08/12:20
    Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (01:15)
    SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +8.5

    06/12/20
    Las Vegas Raiders at NY Jets (18:00)
    LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -2.5

    06/12/20
    Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (21:25)
    GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5

    Treble 1.23/1 888sport (Advised Wednesday)
    ********************
    Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (18:00)

    DAVID MONTGOMERY over 61.5 rushing yards
    5/6 william hill bet365 (Advised Friday)

    Montgomery got 64 yards from 13 carries against the Detroit Lions in week 1 and last week against Green Bay he rushed for 103 yards from 11 carries, that was his best performance of the season, he has a total of 575 yards from 142 carries in 10 games this season, averaging just over 4 yards per game, on those numbers we would be looking at 16 carries to reach our total, however I can see Montgomery getting 20+ carries in this game
    ********************

    Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (18:00)

    MICHAEL PITTMAN JR over 56.5 receiving yards
    5/6 william hill bet365 (Advised Friday)

    Michael Pittman has come to life over the last 4 games and is getting better with
    2 receptions for 28 yards v Tennessee
    3 receptions for 66 yards v Green Bay
    7 receptions for 101 yards v Tennessee
    4 receptions for 56 yards v Baltimore
    Over the season Pittman is averaging 12.7 yards per receptions but over the last 4 games he is averaging just under 15.68 yards per game, on those numbers we would be looking at 4 receptions to get our bet up, Pittman though is getting better and he can make big yardage plays, the Houston Texans are prone to giving up big yardage plays so Pittman against this Texans team could only need a couple of receptions to get over the total
    ********************

    NY Giants at Seattle Seahawks (21:05)

    UNDER 48.5 points
    4/5 paddy power (Advised Friday)

    The Giants have only gone over this game total once this season, that was a 71 point total in Dallas, this Giants defence led by Blake Martinez is getting better and are now difficult to score against, it’s unlikely Daniel Jones will play but even if he did I would still like the under here, Seattle are a team that are not pressing for more when in front even though they have the weapons to do that,
    Last week the Eagles showed that if you play good defence you can limit the Seahawks offensively and the Giants are better defensively than the Eagles,
    The Seahawks last three games have gone under the total with the Giants going under in 4 of their last 6 games
    ********************

    Monday Night Football
    Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers

    DEEBO SAMUEL over 48.5 receiving yards
    5/6 william hill bet355 (Advised Saturday)

    Deebo missed practice on Thursday but it was only as a precaution, he is coming off his best game so far with 11 receptions for 133 yards but has only featured in 5 games this season due to hamstring and foot injuries,
    his game stats so far are
    11 receptions for 133 yards v LA Rams
    5 receptions for 65 yards v New England
    6 receptions for 66 yards v LA Rams
    2 receptions for 19 yards v Miami
    3 receptions for 35 yards v Philadelphia
    The 49ers like to get creative with Deebo to guarantee him the big plays and he gets extra yardage himself with his strength, speed and agility,
    The Bills have given up 1299 yards after the catch this season
    the yards Deebo gets after a tackle makes this total look too low and I like him to get close to if not over 100 receiving yards this week

    • Deb2000 2 months ago

      Johnb do you have a nap in these tips ?

    • Johnb 2 months ago

      It was David Montgomery at over 61.5 yards, he is still a strong bet even with the yards going up to 66.5 but the Deebo Samuel bet would be my best bet now

  3. BaDkO 2 months ago

    My treble:

    Miami -3
    NY Giants +18.5
    KC Chiefs -5.5

    It pays 2.23 with bet365.
    My record is 1 win in 4.

  4. bigmick 2 months ago

    Saints, dolphins, packers all -2. 5 odds 2.09/1

  5. bigmick 2 months ago

    Firsker to score 11/4
    Agholor to score 13/8
    Add Tyreek Hill to score for a treble 14.9/1

  6. nflfan 2 months ago

    In tier 2 now so lucky coral machine in shop missed it 😂
    Texans +7
    Bears +3
    Rams +4.5
    Treble 2/1
    Good luck ☘️

  7. bigmick 2 months ago

    Liking deebo, Pittman, and Montgomery as well this week John. Adam already on the saints will take a look at mims. Ekeler is good bet too. Badko good luck with your treble it looks a good one as the giants should keep it close enough and I like the chiefs and dolphins to cover too. Anyone like the Texans to beat the Colts?

  8. bigmick 2 months ago

    Missed your post nflfan I like that treble too, good luck mate

  9. TDTips 2 months ago

    Love the Deebo line, will definitely be on that tomorrow

  10. TDTips 2 months ago

    Saints scrape the cover. Mims finished on 40.

    Ekeler scoring would be lovely

  11. nflfan 2 months ago

    The bears 🐻 done me twice this season 🤦‍♂️

  12. nflfan 2 months ago

    Well in Adam with saints
    Well in mick with treble
    Well in John b with unders shout
    Just love our thread

  13. bigmick 2 months ago

    Thanks nflfan gonna try this for the chiefs game it’s got a chance I think. CEH, Hill, and Gordon to combine for 4+ tds 11/2
    Hill to score and chiefs to win 5/6

  14. nflfan 1 month ago

    Any thoughts on the steelers v Washington game
    Looking at Washington + 7 4/5 coral
    A Gibson o 47 .5 rush yards 5/6 skybet

  15. nflfan 1 month ago

    Injury curtailed Gibson rush yards I first quarter
    Washington + 7 winner tho

  16. nflfan 1 month ago

    Learn something every day skybet refunded my prop bet money on Gibson over rush yards when he was injured in the first quarter result
    Wouldn’t happen in the footy
    Or any other sports I can think of

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