First off a mention for Paul. I didn't know the man in person, unfortunately, I never got the opportunity to meet him, but he was kind enough to take me on as the NFL writer for the last couple of years, something which I greatly appreciate. The amount of comments on his passing shows how well thought of he was in the betting community and it's a big loss. My thoughts go to his friends and family at this time. I urge you all to keep an eye on the site and when a fund-raising cause is announced you think about donating.
I like the Saints and the Rams against the spread tonight. The Saints played the Falcons a couple of weeks back and won by 15. They got constant pressure on Matt Ryan and he could barely complete a pass late in that game. You've got to think they'll be better this week after seeing this Saints team two weeks ago, but I'm not convinced they'll be able to protect Ryan long enough. Julio Jones injured his hamstring in that game, and was ineffective, he had last week off to recover and says he's fine to go this week which helps the Saints. He's averaged 111 yards per game the last 5 times they've hosted the Saints.
Sean Payton is now 7-0 in the last two years with a backup QB and Taysom Hill looks to make that 8 here. He's not the best passer in the league but has read the memo to throw the ball 5 yards down the field to Michael Thomas and it looks like he can manage that. He's rushed for 2 TDs in each of his two starts and I wouldn't be shocked to see him score tonight (11/10 isn't a bad price on him) One person he seems to struggle to get involved though is Alvin Kamara who has 1 reception for -2 yards in those games with Hill. Murray has been the more effective rusher for them.
I don't see how the Falcons have turned things around enough to win here.
Saints -3 @ 11/10 (365)
Sean McVay's Rams are 6-0 against the Cardinals since he took over with winning margins of 7,27,22,34,16 and 33 points. Admittedly only the first two were against rookie Kyler and Kliff, so while it looks extreme it might not mean a whole lot. This one though is based on Kyler's health. He's only had 5 carries in each of the last two and has slid short of the sticks in both games to avoid contact after straining his AC joint. I don't think he'll be 100% again this year and if he's not rushing then the offense doesn't really work. The Cards don't get a whole lot of pressure on the QB and if Goff is clean he's a decent enough QB. I like Rams to cover the 2.5.
DK Metcalf at 10/11 on BetVictor looks great. He's had 8 TDs in 6 home games this year, and looks to make it 7 in a row at home against a decent enough Giants defense, but he's unstoppable at the moment. 4/5 on Skybet is fine as well if you're blocked from Victor which is entirely possible.
As above I like Taysom Hill at 11/10, and Murray at 3/1 (PP) as decent prices for the Vikings.
Austin Ekeler returned from injury last week and had 129 scrimmage yards against the Bills. They host the Patriots this week who are ranked bottom 2 on defense according to DVOA. He had 11 catches from 16 receptions and nearly found the endzone before Joshua Kelley cultured a goal-line carry from him. They should be able to move the ball on the Patriots and at plus money I'm more than happy to have a punt on him.
Quite a few options I like here, Tim Patrick receptions or yards for Denver against the Chiefs, Jalen Richard rec. yards for the Raiders assuming he takes the Booker role with Booker moving up to RB1, Sterling Shepard receptions line is low but it's going to be Colt McCoy which is the worry there. Ekeler rec. yards, as above he should have a decent game.
I think my official play here will be Denzel Mims o55.5 receiving yards for the Jets. Yeah, they stink, they're obviously going 0-16 this year and have no interest in winning, but Mimsy has been a bright spot since returning from injury with over 60 yards in each of the last three games for the team. He gets a decent matchup against a poor Raiders secondary so I like him to go over his line again this week.
- Saints -3 @ 11/10 (365)
- Austin Ekeler anytime @ 23/20 (Uni/888)
- Denzel Mims o55.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (Skybet)
Good Luck with whatever you're on. Live life, don't hold grudges.