Week 13 is here, and I'm feeling good!
Bet 1; NY Jets v Cincinnati Bengals o42.5 points.
When I thought Ryan Finley was starting for the Bengals I pulled the trigger on the Jets covering the 3 points spread, but they've announced that veteran Andy Dalton will be starting tonight in a desperate hope to actually win a game this season. It will give a boost to all the pass catchers on the Bengals roster and I see it as a big step up for their offense as a whole. Strangely the spread stayed around 3 points, but I think it increases the odds of a shoot out in this. The Jets have put up 34 points in 3 consecutive games and are full of confidence, they should be able to get near that against a poor Bengals defense. The Jets run defense is brilliant, but they're poor vs the pass, I can see this being an end-to-end point fest. (With hopefully my Bengals winning) but this is a low total I want to go over.
Bet 2; Cleveland Browns -2.5 v Pittsburgh Steelers.
This is a re-match of a couple of weeks ago where the Browns won convincingly and the game ended in farce as Myles Garrett aggressively tried to help Mason Rudolph get his helmet back on. It's led to Garrett being suspended for at least the rest of the season along with fellow pass rusher Larry Ogunjobi and Maukrice Pouncey missing this one. Mason Rudolph was a hideous QB, and the Steelers finally saw sense by replacing him with the “3rd string” QB. It's not great for the Steelers either way who are also without their starting RB and WR with James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster both likely missing out (Conner is officially doubtful and Steelers very rarely play on that designation) The Browns have found their feet on offense and are solid defensively they're in with a shot of the play-offs still and have too much talent in this.
Bet 3; Darren Waller o4.5 receptions – 1.90 on Betway (1.83 on 365/Skybet)
I like my reception bets, I was actually tempted to return to Kareem Hunt o3.5 again this week as he had 7 vs the Steelers in their first matchup, but he burnt me last week so I'm on to the Oakland Raiders tight end who faces a Chiefs defense which allows a lot to opposing tight ends, 7 receptions to the position in each of their last 3 games. They allowed Waller to receive 6 in the week 2 matchup between these team. From the Raiders POV it appeals as they lost slot WR Hunter Renfrow to a broken rib this week. He had been taking targets away from Waller in recent weeks so I've got to think they'll go back to Waller with the rest of the WR corps not exactly convincing.
Bet 4; The Longshot – Mo Alie-Cox anytime TD – 10/1 (WillHill) – half stake
I'm pretty sure I've mentioned Big Mo earlier in the season, well there's more reason for him tonight. He's been playing on around 30% of offensive snaps for the Colts anyway, and this week they lost their main RZ threat Eric Ebron for the season, so I'm expecting a target or two for the former basketball player who snagged a couple of TDs for them last year. He's only had 1 Redzone target this season, while Ebron led the team with 11 for the season. If he gets a couple of them then I'm happy to take a punt at this price.
I'll stick to the three for tonight, last week was poor again, so really shouldn't push it.
- Jets v Bengals o42.5
- Browns -2.5 v Pittsburgh
- Darren Waller o4.5 receptions – 1.90
- Mo Alie-Cox anytime TD – 10/1 (half stake)
Good luck with whatever you're backing and enjoy the games.