Some would say that the season only starts after Thanksgiving as things start to get interesting. The AFC has a lot of teams in contention while the lack of talent in the NFC this year keeps things interesting as well although in a different way.
I had a cracking Thursday night as my post on here provided 5 bets and returned 5 winners! I also put out a prop for the Friday game with Jeff Wilson going over his 9.5 receiving yards with relative ease. Let's see if I can carry that into Sunday night.
Best Spread – Steelers -2 @ Bengals
I will always admit to being a pessimistic Bengals fan, and with the season now being over as Joe Burrow heads to IR with a wrist injury it's not been a happy week to be a fan, but this isn't all about my misery, there are reasons for thinking the Steelers win this one.
All of their games tend to go to the fourth quarter and are decided by 3 points, they have one of the best defenses in the league who generate turnovers frequently and they have a QB who seems to come alive at the end of the game. Their offense has been dismal for multiple seasons now, they've not had a 400 yard offensive game for 3 years, which is absurd, SO they finally fired Offensive Co-ordinator Matt Canada this week.
I am informed by Steelers fans that this is the key to their season and we'll see Kenny Pickett improve greatly. It can't get much worse for them on offense and the promotion of Jaylen Warren to the main RB looks like it's going to work well for them as well as he played very well last weekend. They have talent in the passing game with the return of Pat Friermuth helping the middle of the field and George Pickens could be in for a big game against a terrible Bengals defense.
The matchup is good for Pitt regardless of who is at QB for the Bengals, they have struggled to protect Burrow against TJ Watt and the pressure they'll get on an inexperienced QB will be very tough for Jake Browning to do much against, add to that a bottom 5 defense in terms of yards and I think he Steelers are in a great spot to cement the Bengals to the bottom of the division.
Best Total – Browns v Broncos u37
There's a lot of 30-somethings on the board this week, and I agree with Brady there's a lot of mediocrity around league this year so I'm finding it tough to go for an over.
The Browns have shown up to be probably the best defense in the league this year and with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB couldn't move the ball at all against the Steelers last week. So they'll stop the opponent and won't put up much themselves, that's side “a” sorted out.
The Broncos have won 4 games in a row, mainly on the back of their defense looking a lot better recently, ranking top 5 over the last month while they have run the ball well they're facing a very good defense here so I don't think we'll see 20 points from either team.
Best TD Scorer – Kyren Williams – 1/1 (William Hill)
With so many low totals, poor offenses and good defenses this year it's increasingly tough to find a decent TD scorer around even money so I'm plumping with Kyren Williams finding the endzone in his return for the Rams against a poor Cardinals defense.
He was explosive early in the season and the release of Darrel Henderson this week shows to me that they're confident in him being fully healthy in his return for them. He had 158 yards and a TD in the earlier matchup between these two teams.
Best player prop – Jaylen Warren o51.5 rush yards (PaddyPower)
As I said above in the spread bet section I like the matchup for the Steelers and I like how good he looked as the designated starter last weekend, 129 yards and a TD on the ground for him, albeit 74 of that came from one long run. The Bengals allowed 150 yards to Devin Singletary so I think Warren to top 51 – I don't mind the 11/2 on him having over 100 yards on the ground at the same bookie if you wanted something a lot more expansive as well.
My boy Josh Downs is back for the Colts as well, o4.5 receptions at 5/4 is a great price on him.
Good luck if you're following today. Adam (@TouchdownTips)