Week 11 of the season is here, and it's thanksgiving week so keep your eye open for the Thursday games, the late, late one is the key to the slate as the Steelers take on the Ravens, it will wrap up the AFC North for the Steelers or keep the Ravens in the hunt for the division. Houston v Detroit is the 6pm, Washington v Dallas 2130 and Steelers v Ravens 1:20am for us in the UK. I'll be staying away from the Steelers spread because of their big game upcoming.

Anyways, Sunday night, some good televised games, the NFC South clash between the Taysom Hill Saints and the Atlanta Falcons, followed by the Packers @ Indy, and Titans v Ravens probably the pick of the non-televised games.

Spread

I really don't want to take the Browns again but it's dropped below the 3 and is more tempting now. Even Nick Chubb stepping out of bounds on the 1 wouldn't have beaten the 3 point spread last week, I'm still annoyed by that passage of play. The Ravens v Titans is tempting, I don't rate the AFC South and the Ravens should bounce back but Derrick Henry has a good matchup against a poor run D so I'm off that. I like my Bengals getting points against an NFC East team, that division is terrible and the Bengals aren't bad away from their own division but the pass rush of Washington puts me off there.

So I'll go for the Packers to cover against the Colts. I'm not convinced the spread is the right way here, I'd probably have the Packers as slight favourites. They're getting players back on offense with Aaron Jones a week fitter, Allen Lazard expected back albeit on a snap count tonight and Davante Adams the best WR in the league this year. Aaron Rodgers in a dome should be a good thing, he's had 7 TDs in 3 games vs the Colts in his career, and got MVS going last week with 149 and 2 TDs for him.

The Colts have a highly ranked defense but haven't really played anyone this season, I don't rate them much on offense the run game is struggling, although I do like Michael Pittman who is playing well back from injury and adds some much-needed talent at WR for them and he gets a good matchup with Jaire Alexander is out with concussion as expected.

Green Bay Packers +1.5 @ 1.90 (365)

Player prop

I think I'm going large on one prop this week. It seems to me that it should be a much higher line – JD McKissic o4.5 receptions for the Washington football team. They're starting Alex Smith who leads the league in yards over the last couple of weeks, he's target McKissic an absurd 29 times in those two games, with 16 receptions for him, 9 and 7. He goes up against a Bengals team who are beaten up on defense. He's clearly the release ball for the team and while the Bengals LBs are better than most think I doubt they'll shut him down.

A few others I like, although all a fairly short prices, Mike Davis o3.5 recs (Panthers), Goedert o3.5 recs, Hurst o3.5 recs, Deshaun Watson o29.5 rush yards and Justin Herbert o1.5 passing TDs – shortest of them all at 1.52 he's had at least 2 in his last 5 games.

TD Scorer

I should probably go for Nick Chubb again this week, he's had 5 TDs in 3 games at home for them this season including his one last week and is still nearly even, 10/11 for him to score anytime and worth a shout at 6/1 to score first. Todd Gurley is 11/10 anytime, he leads the league in rushing TDs so getting over evens is a good price for him. D'Onta Foreman scored for the Titans last time out, he's 14/1 anytime on PP/Betfair which is probably worth a nibble. Durham Smythe for the Dolphins has 2 in 3 games with Tua at QB, he's 10/1 on 365.

I'll go for Terry McLaurin anytime at 6/4 against the Bengals. He's had 7+ receptions, 90+ yards and a TD in each of their last 2 home games and should have a good matchup tonight against a battered up Bengals defense who give up a lot of yards to WRs.

Summary

It's been a rough few weeks so I'll stick to just the three bets.

  • Packers +1.5
  • McKissic o4.5 receptions
  • Terry McLaurin anytime TD

Good luck this week folks, enjoy the games. Check out Touchdown Tips for previews on all games.

21 Comments
  1. BaDkO 2 months ago

    My weekly treble (won 1 out of 3 so far):
    GB Packers +8.5
    ATL Falcons +11.5
    MIA Dolphins +3

    It pays 2.37 with bet365.

  2. bigmick 2 months ago

    Meyers and mckissic both over 4.5 receptions double 1.62/1
    Patriots, browns, dolphins ml treble 7/2
    Nice treble badko that looks good. I like the saints to win but think the Falcons will keep it tight.
    Adam not much value in the mckissic bet this week but it should come up I’ve added Meyers in who should also go over as he is getting plenty of looks recently.

  3. Johnb 2 months ago

    Week 11 NFL Teaser Treble (Already Advised)
    1.37/1 bet365

    NE Patriots at Houston Texans HOUSTON TEXANS +8

    Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team
    CINCINNATI BENGALS +8.5

    Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
    MINNESOTA VIKINGS -1
    *********************

    Sunday NFL NAP (Already Advised)
    GB Packers at Indianapolis Colts

    INDIANAPOLIS COLTS to win
    20/23 paddy power
    ********************

    Sunday NFL (NB) (Already Advised)
    Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

    OVER 46.5
    9/10 paddy power
    ********************

    Since week 7 Diontae Johnson is ranked 6th among all wide receivers after being targeted 38 times, I can see Diontoe Jackson having a good game against a Jacksonville team that has allowed a 100-yard receiver in each of its last three games. The second-best wide receiver in those games gained between 66 and 84 yards, so over 59.5 receiving yards looks good as Pittsburgh have been more pass-heavy recently than the other teams the Jaguars have faced, so there is the possibility that the Steelers receivers can get even more yards, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool should both be able to take advantage of the Jaguars defensive weak links which are the outside cornerbacks who have given up 941 yard which is the 7th worst in the NFL, to make matters worse for Jacksonville but better for us is that Jacksonville have placed rookie cornerback CJ Henderson on injured reserve with a groin injury, Henderson was the ninth overall pick in the NFL draft and has six pass breakups and one interception, he has started eight games this season, Tre Herndon could be the player to take up the outside cornerback position

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)

    DIONTAE JOHNSON over 58.5 receiving yards
    5/6 skybet (PROPS NAP)

    CHASE CLAYOOOL over 45.5 receiving yards
    7/10 888sport
    ********************

    Washington has fallen behind by 13 or more points before or at halftime in eight of nine games this season
    These are the first half points scored by teams playing against Washington this season
    17 v Philadelphia Eagles
    20 v Arizona Cardinals
    17 v Cleveland Browns
    21 v Baltimore Ravens
    20 v LA Rams
    13 v NY Giants
    3 v Dallas Cowboys
    20 v NY Giants
    17 v Detroit Lions
    The only team unable to score above the 10.5 points was Dallas but that’s no need to worry as Dallas are as bad as you can get

    In the last 4 weeks the Cincinnati Bengals have scored the following first half points
    24 v Indianapolis Colts
    17 v Cleveland Browns
    17 v Tennessee Titans
    7 v Pittsburgh Steelers
    Even the 7 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers is a positive with how good their defence is

    Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team

    CINCINNATI BENGALS over 10.5 first half points
    1/1 bet365

    • Jakarariw 2 months ago

      JohnB for the weekly treble please just stick with your speciality handicaps +ve …these seem to work
      Otherwise next weekend is still there
      Thanks

  4. nflfan 2 months ago

    Mahones herbert burrow rothesiberger
    + 225 pass yards and 2 pass touchdowns
    Skybet 5/1

  5. nflfan 2 months ago

    Burrow Mahones rothesiberger Herbert
    + 225 pass yards and 2 pass TDS
    5/1 skybet

  6. nflfan 2 months ago

    ☘️☘️ good luck all

  7. Inches 2 months ago

    Sorry lads nothing from me. Hectic week. Wish you all the best. And check in tomorrow. Took johns teams and 4 others in a 100 teaser. Gl nfl fan, mock and Adam

    • Inches 2 months ago

      Big mick lol

  8. Inches 2 months ago

    thank feck I proof read after I post

  9. nflfan 2 months ago

    Posted a treble earlier seems to have disappeared
    Steelers-7
    Ravens ml
    Chiefs ml
    2/1 treble skybet
    Odd it gone 🤷‍♂️

  10. bigmick 2 months ago

    Lol inches I’ve been called a lot worse. Darn auto correct lol. Good luck everyone

  11. Johnb 2 months ago

    Can’t believe the Bengals didn’t get over 10.5 points, no problem getting down the pitch but got stopped on 1 yard line, missed extra point, two missed field goals that hit the upright and ended up with 9 points, on a positive note the two player receiving yards are winners

  12. nflfan 2 months ago

    D Henry is a monster
    Downed my treble
    J burrow injury curtailed my other bet
    🥲

  13. TDTips 2 months ago

    The Bengals would have comfortably won that game had it not been for the injury. They were dominant in the first half, would have been comfortable.

    Gutted TBF, Bengals were aiming for 4 or 5 wins but this was the start of their easy run of games, they won’t win another game now

  14. nflfan 2 months ago

    Totally agree Adam bengals would have won
    Torn Acl just heard ouch

  15. TDTips 2 months ago

    Jeeez,

    ACL, MCL and “other damage” for Burrow – Seems like he might struggle to make week 1 next year.

    Not much on tonight’s game for myself, Josh Reynolds would be the one to look at for props, he’s out-targeted Woods in recent weeks I believe

    • mar10bet 2 months ago

      Might help them get some high picks on D for next season as they’ve not been great in the secondary. Or even add Jamarr Chase to the receiving core. Looked a bad one though on Burrows. Horrible angle all that weight came in in. Hope he recovers well as looks an immense talent.

  16. bigmick 2 months ago

    Cam Akers over 20.5 rushing yds 5/6
    Brady under 285.5 passing yds 5/6
    Antonio Brown over 4.5 receptions 5/6
    Just going for the prop bets tonight. Cam over the yds he’s starting to get more touches with 9 and 10 carries last 2 games think the total is a bit low here. Hard to bet against Brady but the rams d has only let 1 qb throw over 270 yds all season and that was in a shootout with the bills when Allen was red hot. The last is because brown is a target Brady likes, Jalen Ramsey will likely be covering Evans and Godwin still recovering from injury. He caught only 3 in his first game but caught 7 last week I see reckon he gets plenty of looks tonight.

  17. bigmick 2 months ago

    2 out of 3 ain’t bad, Akers had the most carries of the 3 rams rbs but they stuck with Goff passing which worked.

  18. nflfan 2 months ago

    Well in mick
    Good shout

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