Not going to lie, things haven't gone well over the last few weeks. Last week a final minute rushing TD by a rookie QB killed the Texans spread bet, Irv Smith scored 2 TDs, on his receptions when I had o2.5 – It was the right bet, and Tyler Lockett cost my a fortune by going down a yard short of the endzone for the Seahawks. Yes they're excuses, but I feel they validate my picks to a certain extent. It's been a rough few weeks.

Week 10 is here though and for me as a Bengals fan it's the game I mark on the calendar when the schedule is released. Bengals v Steelers. I'm hopeful we'll put up a good game and keep it close, of course it would be great to stop their unbeaten run, and the Bengals roster is so far different to anything they've put out there for the last 10 years or so that I think it could be the beginning of things turning in our favour. I hope. That game depends a lot on how well the offensive line stops the best pass rush in the league. That's where I'm less hopeful. Fingers crossed Joey B makes it out alive and the second half of the season starts with some promise, there's some easier games on the way for my boys.

Spread

The Bengals were in contention for my spread pick, I like them getting the hook on the 7 as I think it will be a one-score game, but I can't jinx my team like that. The Chargers +1.5 at the Dolphins were there, they've got to win a one-score game at some point and I think the Dolphins are over-rated. The Browns -4 at home to a dome-team in the Texans in “dangerously windy” conditions (according to NFLWeather) should be able to run all over them with Nick Chubb back in the line-up

But I'm settling on the Sunday night football match this week with the Ravens travelling to Foxborough to take on the pathetic Patriots. It's the largest underdog the Pats have been at home since 2001. 19 years. And realistically I think it should be closer to double-digits. The Patriots are ranked 31st by DVOA, 30th vs the pass, 31st against the run and they're not much better on offense with a complete lack of pass-catching talent.

The Ravens need to keep winning to keep pace with the Steelers at the top of the AFC North so won't be taking it easy, they had a weird week against the Colts, only 55 yards offense in the first half, but they ran out 24-10 winners and shut out the Colts in the second half. That Colts team is far better than the current iteration of the Pats and the Ravens could put up 300 yards on the ground with Mark Ingram expected to return to the backfield. They might even get the passing game clicking such is my disrespect of the Patriots defense here. Add to that the Ravens defense is one of the best in the league particularly against the run which is pretty much the only way the Pats will move the ball and I think it should be a 2 TD win for the Ravens.

Ravens -7 at 1.90 in the usual places.

Player prop

As always a few in contention for me here too, no doubt I'll pick the wrong one, but the likes of John Brown, Tim Patrick, Keenan Allen and Sterling Shepard receptions are lined well, Nick Chubb at 71.5 rush yards against a terrible Texans run D in what's likely to be a run-heavy game is tempting, but it's another returning running back that I'll go with here due to a decent discrepancy in lines between bookies.

Aaron Jones rush yards is lined at 71.5 on Bet365 but a lovely 66.5 on Skybet and in a weather-affected game as big favourites (around 14 points) there should be a ton of rushing attempts for one of the best backs in the league. He's had a month off through injury and will be raring to go, so I'm expecting 20+ carries for him, even at 3 yards per carry he's going to get close to this line and he's got the breakaway speed to hit this line in just a few attempts against a poor Jaguars run defense.

Aaron Jones o66.5 rushing yards – 1.83 (Skybet)

Anytime TD scorer

I used to think I was pretty good at picking TD scorers but they've been a bloody nightmare so far this season. I'll keep backing them of course, and looking for value where it is. Obviously, it makes sense to target the high scoring games on the slate, so the likes of the Bills v Cardinals and Seahawks v Rams, Broncos v Raiders are all over 50 points this week; I'm actually shocked the Broncos v Raiders line hasn't gone up this week I've got it pegged as a high scoring affair.

I like Kyler Murray again obviously, and maybe worth a look at the tight ends for the Cardinals as the Bills are susceptible across the middle of the field, Darrell Daniels and Maxxxxxx Williams both got on the scoresheet last week, but with 1 reception each. Actually both too short for pot-shots. The Bills side, I like John Brown (3.0) and Gabriel Davis (6.0), but they like the TE there too, so Dawson Knox is decently priced at 6.5

Carson and Hyde are once again out for the Seahawks so Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer are of interest at 2.75 and 3.5 respectively, Dallas has 3 TDs in 2 games. Homer gets more snaps if they're trailing. Of course you'd expect DK to get a TD again, he'll be against Jalen Ramsey but can anyone stop that beast of a man?

Noah Fant makes sense for the Broncos at 3.25, and a tight end on the other side tends to score 2 or 3 times a season so 16/1 for Foster Moreau isn't a terrible look either.

But I'll veer away from those and, to me, I think the best value this week is Nick Chubb for the Browns. I am fairly surprised to see him above evens in a game that I think he'll return to the heavy workload that he had pre-injury. Kareem Hunt has been fine but is nowhere near as good as Chubb as an RB1. They're up against a bottom 5 run defense in a game I expect to be very run-heavy given the weather there, he'll get goal-line looks and I think he'll find the end-zone. He's priced as low as 1.5 on Spreadex, so to get 2.2 on him at Betfair, to me, seems very good.

Nick Chubb anytime TD – 2.2 (Betfair/PP)

Bigger priced TD scorer – Samaje Perine 8.5 of the Bengals (Betfair/PP) – They're without Mixon again and Perine was used in goal-line positions against the Colts in the last game they played, assume he'll take that role again this week.

Summary

Hoping for a change in fortunes on here.

  • Ravens -7 – 1.90 (365/most)
  • Aaron Jones o66.5 rush yards – 1.83 (Skybet)
  • Nick Chubb anytime TD – 2.2 (Betfair/PP)
  • Samaje Perine – 8.5 (Betfair/PP) – Half stake

Good Luck with your bets this week, if you follow me on twitter it should be entertaining, yet swear-filled from 925 onwards when I'll inevitably be tweeting during the Bengals and Steelers game.

Adam (@TouchdownTips, tdtips.com) – If you play Draftkings, or want to then check out my sister site – NFL-DFS.com for line-up advice.

#WhoDey

50 Comments
  1. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    Going for a treble browns -4. 5, dolphins -1. 5, and Ravens -6. 5 odds 5.81/1
    I’ll come back later after seeing if there is anything else I like

  2. mar10bet 3 weeks ago

    Is 86.5 rushing a low yard for Cook even against that Bears D? 200+ 2 games straight and was taken off the 4th quarter last week as it just wasn’t fair on the Lions!

  3. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    In fact I like mckissic over 4.5 receptions 11/10
    Luton over 7.5 rushing yds 11/10
    Michael Thomas over 73.5 reception yds 5/6
    Treble pays 7.09/1

    Will be backing your bets this week as well Adam you are due a bit of luck

  4. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    Mars10bet that has a chance, I think a lot of that line has to do with the bears stuffing Henry last week and Kamara the week before. The rams had 2 backs combine for good yds and even Ronald Jones ran all over the bears so they can be run on and well cook is on fire ATM and can run on anyone imo

  5. BaDkO 3 weeks ago

    Treble:
    NY Giants +11.5
    CIN Bengals +14.5
    BAL Ravens money line

    Treble pays 2.35 at bet365.

  6. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Hi all heading to the late games for a
    Treble
    Steelers saints raiders 13/8 enhanced
    Skybet

    Also 9.05 and 9.25 games all over 50 points 28/1 long shot
    Small stake that one ☘️

  7. Inches 3 weeks ago

    Any john b tips?

    Big Mick how do you do the same game parlay?

  8. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    What do you mean inches?

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Did you not do a bet last week where you selected multiple legs from the same game into an accumulator? I might be wrong now lol sorry.

  9. Inches 3 weeks ago

    Browns -2.5
    Ravens -7
    Chargers +2.5
    Cardinals -3
    10.77/1

  10. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    Ah i got you same game multi on Paddy power

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Thanks I’ll set up an account there.

  11. Inches 3 weeks ago

    Chubb over 72.5 rush
    Robinson jags over 67.5 rush
    Murray over 54.5 rush
    Jackson over 55.5 rush
    Burrow over 38.5 passing attempts
    19.77

  12. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    I’d say good luck with your betting inches but you are up against me in the dolphins-chargers game lol. What made you pick the Cardinals over the bills? Tough game to call they both recently beat the Seahawks but the cards lost to the dolphins who are worse than the bills. I don’t know it’s a bold selection or not lol.

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Mate I’m not jumping on the Tua train, dolphins have 2 key defensive players out. Herbert train I am on I think hes unbelievable. I know bosa is out but o still think they will get to Tua with Ingram.

      I think murray is the better QB I think they have better receivers Also I just dont trust Josh Allen and the Bill’s. I just cant figure them out. Cardinals owe me too lol

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Gl to you too pal

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Also Bill’s are terrible against running qbs, all over murray yards

  13. Johnb 3 weeks ago

    TREBLE (Already Advised)

    Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
    INDIANAPOLIS COLTS + 7.5 ✅

    Seattle Seahawks at LA Rams
    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +8.5

    Philadelphia Eagles at NY Giants
    NY GIANTS +10.5
    1.41/1 bet365
    ********************

    For the first time this season I am advising a second treble

    No 2 TEASER TREBLE
    1.33/1 Bet365

    Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (01:20)
    BALTIMORE RAVENS -0.5

    Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (21:25)
    PITTSBURGH STEELERS – 0.5

    San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (21:25)
    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – 2.5

    Baltimore Ravens at NE Patriots

    The biggest shock last week was nearly the New England Patriots who trailed the 0-8 NY Jets by 10 points going into the 4th quarter, it was more of the Jets quarterback Joe Flacco handing New England the win with a poor 4th quarter performance than New England winning the game by themselves
    Baltimore are
    1st in points allowed per game with 17.8
    8th in yards allowed per game with 324.9
    Last week Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson completed 19 of 23 passes for 170 yards which was only average for Lamar but he did just enough for Baltimore to win.
    The New England defense ranks last in pass yards allowed per play, allowing a league-worst 8.41 per completion and with Lamar being able to keep teams guessing with his running and passing. he can take advantage by completing some deep passes here,
    I don’t like New England’s chances coming off a short week here and I will easily take Baltimore at -1 in a teaser when I think they could actually win by 20+ points

    Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

    The undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Cincinnati Bengals in what is set to be the first matchup between these division foes this season.
    Pittsburgh are
    4th in the NFL for points allowed per game with 20.1
    6th for total yards allowed per game with 317.4
    5th for passing yards allowed per game with 214.6)
    9th for rushing yards allowed per game with 102.8
    Last year, Pittsburgh won both games against Cincinnati with a 27-3 win at home followed by a 16-10 victory on the road. They have won 10 in a row against Cincinnati with the last loss coming back in 2015.
    Pittsburgh look to be vulnerable just now and Cincinnati could take advantage but with Pittsburgh at home and having a point to prove after last weeks narrow win over Dallas, their run game was a massive disappointment against Dallas, managing just 46 yards on 18 carries. James Conner averaged just 2.4 yards per carry but they should get the job done here

    San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

    No team has been ravaged by injury more than the 49ers this season and it’s taking its toll,
    New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees led the 38-3 rout of Tampa Bay last week and the only chance San Francisco has is to keep the score low, which will be much harder than it sounds as New Orleans has score at least 24 points in all games this season and look to have all their offensive weapons available for this game
    *********************

    NFL Sunday NAP

    Philadelphia Eagles at NY Giants (18:00)

    OVER 44.5 points
    9/10 paddy power
    *********************

    NFL Sunday NB

    Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions (18:00)

    DETROIT LIONS -2.5
    9/10 unibet

    • Jakarariw 3 weeks ago

      Thanks JohnB
      The treble from Thursday went through

  14. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    You’re yards bet I like that tempted to go with you on that. PP is good for some bets but other bets you are better comparing odds with you’re usual bookie, they have a good fantasy betting where you can enter tournaments similar to draft kings won a little bit from those too.

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Sounds great. I’ll set up an account tomorrow. Cheers.

  15. Inches 3 weeks ago

    Bit of a craic bet. Missed fg in the windy games
    Packers
    Eagles
    Browns
    steelers.

    All games to have a missed fg. 19.17/1

  16. TDTips 3 weeks ago

    Chubb scores, a winner finally!

    That Mckissic receptions bet is a cracker every week Smith is in there by the look of it.

    Aaron Jones rush yards is going nowhere by the look of it though, need him to break a big one

    • bigmick 3 weeks ago

      I reckon so Adam and nicely done with the Chubb td. Unlucky inches I had the browns to win by 5 wish I’d taken them to win by 3 like you did. Hate those browns lol.

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Shocking Mick.

  17. Inches 3 weeks ago

    Nick chubb is a flipping ball bag

  18. TDTips 3 weeks ago

    That Chubb “incident” was a killer I had him anytime and 2 or more in an acca.

    I get it. It guaranteed the win, but we’re the Texans gonna score 10 pts in 20 seconds?

    Killed bettors

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Unlucky Adam, I actually cant believe he done that. I had the browns -3 and -3.5 in other bets.

  19. Inches 3 weeks ago

    Mick well done with the fins, they actually look really good, I just thought their defense wouldn’t be as good as it has been but they are very impressive. I really hope nick chubb dosent kill your treble.

    John b great pick with the lions, but how unlucky with giants game .5 point downed it, 2 trebled still running hope the hawks put some points up for you.

    Great pick with chubb anytime Adam.

    I really hope Lamar puts his running shoes on later.

    • Johnb 3 weeks ago

      Thanks, thought the Lions had blown it but got the late field goal and disappointed with the Giants score but hopefully the trebles will make up for it as I don’t usually go for two but this week looked good

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Glad the seahawks went for that fg for you. What about Hopkins. That was incredible. I think cardinals will beat the hawks on Thursday.

  20. Jakarariw 3 weeks ago

    Thanks JohnB
    The treble from Thursday went through

  21. Inches 3 weeks ago

    Chubb over 72.5 rush
    Robinson jags over 67.5 rush
    Murray over 54.5 rush
    Jackson over 55.5 rush
    Burrow over 38.5 passing attempts
    19.77

    Sorry it was actually murrat6over 55.5 and Jackson over 54.5 skybet. cant believe it jackson finished on 55 yards. Actually thought it was beat until I checked my account.
    So as no one follows me and I dont keep points I’m taking it as a win haha

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      ✅✅✅✅✅

  22. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Well done inches
    Winning treble from me
    I like to think all our opinions and thoughts matter as sometimes we can pick out something from another person which could help our bets
    Personally like to read all our thoughts and make a decision on my bets
    So in a way I follow everyone ☘️

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Good shout with your treble nflfan I hate doing those enhanced trebles with skybet I dont think I’ve ever won on them especially with the footie and horses.

      Good point though. Cheers.

  23. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    Agree with that nflfan everyone is very knowledgeable and we get bits from each other. It’s good that we a bit of actual chat and thoughts from a good bunch.

  24. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    I follow you and everyone inches I don’t bet everything as it would probably be too much but I do bet some of yours and everyone’s tips.

  25. jolo210 3 weeks ago

    So glad I didn’t bet this week and won’t be betting again this season how the browns Nick Chubb can get away with what he did shows you that the nfl is rigged against the punter and Arizona Cardinals not kicking the extra point has me bemused to say the least Never Again

  26. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    I’m not sure about tonight’s game the bears and Vikings are both difficult to figure out. I did read Kirk Cousins is 0-9 on Monday nights for what that is worth. News is Lamar Miller could start for the bears I wouldn’t be surprised if he scored a td. As mars10bet mentioned cook going over the yds might be worth a look the way he’s running of late.
    I like Mooney over 3.5 receptions at evens
    Over 40.5 total points and bears +10.5 handicap evens

  27. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Tonight’s game
    Chicago + 5 4/5 coral
    Expecting a close game
    Going with the dog at home

  28. TDTips 3 weeks ago

    Yeah. Kirk Cousins in prime time is a terrible record.

    Lamar Miller is 9s on Victor and 7s on Hills. I’ve had a bit on him.

    Skybet have Cook rec. Yards at 16.5, up to 20.5 on Betfair. He’s had over that in 4 of the last 5 games.

  29. dj76 3 weeks ago

    I can’t really call tonights game with any confidence so i’ve decided to go for a same game multi bet.

    Cook & Thielen anytime td scorers
    Robinson over 74.5 yards
    Graham over 31.5 yards

    10.7/1 @ PP

  30. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Good shout on the cook yards mar10bet
    Close game as I thought bears offence is omg tho
    With hindsight the unders was the shout

  31. Inches 3 weeks ago

    Some unlucky bets last night 16 reception yards cook is a killer. I couldn’t touch it as I just didnt have a clue. How bad is that bears offense? Lamar miller no rush yards? Foles 106 pass yards? Graham no receptions? What the hell.

    • TDTips 3 weeks ago

      Story of the last few weeks for me there, half a yard or so off all the time

    • Inches 3 weeks ago

      Hop back on the horse mate, what you fancy for Thursday night? Looks to be a cracker.

  32. Inches 2 weeks ago

    Evening lads, I fancy the cardinsls +3 tonight so just put them into an early bet with a few for the weekend. No time for research but just gut feeling picks.
    Main bet tonight just small stakes on cards to win by 1-6 points 17/4

    Also added eagles to win by 1-6 for 25.25/1

    Have a feeling eagles win lol we are due 1……

    • Inches 2 weeks ago

      Just realised its only Wednesday haha. Best to do the opposite of those picks bow ffs haha.

  33. dj76 2 weeks ago

    Hoping for a repeat of the previous meeting between the cardinals & seahawks resulting in lots of points & yards for both teams this time round again

    Murray & Wilson each to have 1+ passing tds in each half 12/5
    Murray rushing td 6/4 (enhanced price)
    Murray to have 50+ rushing yards & score 1 + rushing tds 2/1
    Each team to score 1+ rushing tds & 1+ passing tds 5/4
    Both teams to score 2+ tds in each half 10/1
    All bets with PP

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