Not a good week on the betting front, I'm not one to make excuses, but… Think it was a bit of a bad beat on Thursday night, I tipped up Chris Conley o35.5, he finished on 34 yards and was missed on a walk-in touchdown with no-one around him which would have got us the total as well. A poor week all round for me actually. Apologies.

Week 3 is here though, and after a week filled with injuries to key players there's a few bits of value, and few things areas where you might have been able to garner some value through the week. It's all good, onwards and upwards for this week.

General rule of thumb is to take teams who are 0-2 against 2-0 teams, so, the Falcons vs the Bears, the Vikings hosting the Titans, Texans at Steelers, Lions at Cardinals those 4 teams fill the mould this week. However I'm not touching the Vikings or Lions, the Vikings defense looks terrible and I really rate the Cardinals this year. The Texans have a better chance, they've played the two best teams in the league so far, but the matchup doesn't bode well for them, they've allowed the most QB pressures this year and the Steelers have provided the most pressures. It could be a rough evening for Deshaun Watson.

Spread bet

Falcons -3 vs the Bears.

The one game which gives me a 0-2 team vs a 2-0 team is this one, and even if it wasn't for the record of the teams I think I'd have taken it, the Bears are a fraudulent 2-0 team after a comeback win to the Lions which they should have lost on the final play and scraping past the Giants without Saquon Barkley last week. They face a high scoring team this week in the Falcons and I don't think they'll be able to keep up with them. The Falcons have faced the NFC player of the week for the first two weeks in Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. Now there's a good reason they put up points and got the attention, the Falcons defense is terrible. However I don't fear Mitchell Trubisky. The Falcons look like they'll have Julio playing, he does usually play through injuries, but the hamstring strain he got limited in game last week so I think he's likely a distraction which will help Calvin Ridley continue his brilliant form so far, 2 TDs and 100+ yards in each game this season for him. I think the Falcons out-score the Bears and cover the 3.

Total

Cincinnati Bengals v Philadelphia Eagles OVER 46.5

I'm kinda surprised the total is below 50 in this one, the Bengals have had the most offensive snaps of any team in the league and if they get behind, which they tend to do, they've shown they'll put it all on Joe Burrows shoulders to lead the team down the field. They stumbled in week 1 but should have won, they covered (or pushed) the spread, and they put up 30 on the Browns on TNF 10 days ago. They have shown they still can't defend the run so I expected the Eagles to use Miles Sanders a lot as well as their TE duo to put up points. On the Bengals side they go 5 wide often and I think Drew Sample is in for a big game in this one. They have shown a propensity to target the TE, 11 receptions for the position last game, 7 of them to Sample while the Eagles have allowed 9 receptions and 4 TDs to that position through their two games so far. I don't think either team will be able to slow either offense. Overs for me. (I've personally had a little nibble on over 60.5 in this and o69.5 in Seattle as a 25/1ish double)

Player prop

D'Andre Swift o21.5 receiving yards. – 1.83 (365/Skybet/Hills)

The rookie RB put his drop in week 1 behind him last week to rack up 60 yards on 5 receptions against the Packers in the game which they were trailing from the 2nd quarter. I expect them to be trailing in a high scoring game this week and it looks like Swift is the pass-catching back with Kerryon and Adrian Peterson doing most of the groundwork. Most of the time teams tend to run the ball at the end of the game to take time off the clock and wither away the game, the Cardinals don't do that though they keep throwing which means the Lions will have to keep scoring as well.

Touchdown Scorer (Shortie)

Miles Sanders – 10/11 (Skybet/Betfred)

I had a few bits of value early in the weekend which doesn't help anyone now, but Jordan Reed, Jeff Wilson were priced well as was Drew Sample who I mentioned above. But I'll try and be sensible with the short priced one this week. The Bengals still seem unable to stop the run, they allowed 140 odd yards to the Chargers in week 1 and 215 yards to the best RB duo in the league Chubb and Hunt last weekend. They'll face Miles Sanders this week who had over 75% of the teams snaps and carries last week, and attributed 37% of the total yardage put up by them as well both on the ground and through the air. I've got to think he finds the endzone this week.

Touchdown Scorer (Longshot – half stake)

Alex Armah – 40/1 (365)

Now this one may be utterly stupid, so I really shouldn't be putting it out there to be recorded, but the Carolina full back had that carry at the end of their opener, which he failed to get… however they're without Christian McCaffrey this week, do I think there's a chance he's used as a goal-line back? Yeah, why the hell not. The issue will be whether they get to the goal-line to be able to do that. I'm not expecting this to land, but at the odds, without their main man they might use other options so why the hell not.

Summary

  • Falcons -3 vs. the Bears – 10/11
  • Bengals v Eagles OVER 46.5 – 10/11
  • Miles Sanders anytime TD – 10/11 (Skybet/Betfred)
  • Alex Armah anytime TD – 40/1 (365)

Good luck with whatever you're on this week, as always check out my site for more previews TDtips.com

Lets hope it's a good weekend.

23 Comments
  1. mar10bet 3 weeks ago

    Right, I’ll blast over this and your own site now Adam but what about Packers @ Saints? You think there’s value in Saints -3 as the Packers ain’t replayed this level of opposition so far. 4/6 in places even on ML but you reckon Saints can cover the spread?

  2. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    I like all of those bets apart from the long shot but you never know. I’m on handicap treble 49ers, Cardinals, Titans
    Player prop McKinnon over 58.5 yds 5/6
    I’m on the same bets as Adam otherwise apart from the long shot

  3. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    I actually like the packers to win that one personally both teams look to be without their main wr. Packers haven’t faced a team as tough as the saints yet. It looks like it could be a shootout though I like the overs in this one

    • mar10bet 3 weeks ago

      I think the bookies are trying to bait me into betting them at that spread 😂 I’m not biting. Bounce back win for the Saints in the dome and that top D to come up big and cover the spread.

  4. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Hi all simple one to start
    Patriots
    Colts
    Bucs
    Ml treble pays 5/4 coral

  5. mar10bet 3 weeks ago

    Titans, Cards & Pats ML treble 21/10 – 5 pts

    Add 49ers & Saints @ 7/1 – 1 pt

    Falcons, Titans, Cards & Saint on spread with over in Bengals @ Eagles acca pays 27/1 (parlay bonus) – 0.5 pts

    • mar10bet 3 weeks ago

      Kyler Murray is really blowing this. After getting out of jail with the Titans it leads into 3 ints for the Cards. Murray’s constantly throwing into trouble 🙈

  6. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Early thoughts posted last Monday on last weeks thread
    Titans +2.5
    Philly v bengals over 40.5 points 11/8 double 👍
    Hope some one got on

    • mar10bet 3 weeks ago

      Nice bet that. Great price too 💪

  7. TDTips 3 weeks ago

    I don’t really have an opinion on GB v NO.

    Id say the Packers win out right a I have no faith in Brees. But it’s not one I’d be putting money on.

    Nothing more gutting than having o46.5 and the game ending in a 23-23 tie…

    • mar10bet 3 weeks ago

      Not even getting FG in OT is unreal

  8. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Seen that Adam so unlucky how many ties do we get a year normally 1-2
    At most so normally points in overtime

  9. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Thanks mar10bet I do like the coral in shop terminal
    It always gives the alternative handicap and alternative point spreads from Monday
    Some of the others tend to wait till later in the week

  10. dj76 3 weeks ago

    Aaron Rodgers 1+ passing td in each half
    17/10 @ PP

  11. TDTips 3 weeks ago

    A shocker for me last night, nothing good at all.

    Falcons the first team to ever give up consecutive 15 point fourth quarter leads.

    46 pts.

    Swift played 5 snaps?! FIVE SNAPS. Targeted on 2, caught 1 for 19 yards.

    Sanders had the yards, but no goal line work as the Eagles didn’t get to the goal line.

    Terrible night.

  12. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Adam your knowledge is second to none
    These things happen you will bounce back next week or even this evening if you posting
    ☘️☘️

  13. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    Adam don’t worry about it your knowledge is good and although it’s not quite hitting right now I’m confident you’ll be helping us bash the bookies soon enough. I too didn’t have the best night although I was right about my thoughts on 2 of the games others questioned over the last couple of days. The Broncos game did go under and the packers won along with overs. I should of bet and tipped those instead of the crap tips I did put up lol. I think the good times are coming soon.

  14. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    What’s the thoughts on the chiefs v Ravens other than it should be a cracker?

  15. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Tonight’s game
    I have changed my mind umpteen times
    Over the last few days
    Both teams are class
    Both coaches very experienced
    Both teams can rack up points
    Feel Baltimore s defence at the minute is the must better D
    Will keep studying and post later ☘️

  16. nflfan 3 weeks ago

    Can’t pick a winner tonight so gunna try some prop bets
    P Mahomes over 18.5 rushing yds 5/6
    P Mahomes to score anytime TD 5/1
    L Jackson and P Mahomes to score anytime TD s 14/1
    All skybet
    Not big stakes only an interest
    Should be a cracker ☘️

  17. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    I’m big on edwards-helaire tonight. Think the one weakness the Ravens d has is they can struggle against the run. I’m taking him on to score a td, rush for over over 62.5 yds and chiefs plus 10.5 points. Odds just a shade over 2/1 I think the chiefs could cover the the 3.5 spread and maybe even win but I expect it to be within a td either way so giving them 10.5 points head start along with CEH getting the yds and score feel it has a chance. Neither side great at stopping the run but it’s hard to say who will get the carries for the Ravens right now I think Ingram is the starter but Gus Edwards got more carries than him last game and Dobbins could get more looks too not to mention jackson likes to take off too. Any of them could get big yds against the chiefs d. I like both Kelce and Andrews tonight too both these teams have struggled against TEs so far njoku and fells scored against the Ravens and Akins scored against the chiefs and Henry put up decent numbers against them. I might have a look at those 2 later maybe both to score a td or something with the yds or receptions?

  18. bigmick 3 weeks ago

    Think I’ll have a go at both teams to score 25+ points at 7/4 as well

  19. mar10bet 3 weeks ago

    You guys talked me down from Saints last night so landed over 51.5 & Packers -3………..but trebled it with the Celtics 🙈 Still can’t believe the Cards never won that game as I’d have been on a tidy profit. Still it’s was an exciting games across the board yesterday so it’s all good.

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