Not a good week on the betting front, I'm not one to make excuses, but… Think it was a bit of a bad beat on Thursday night, I tipped up Chris Conley o35.5, he finished on 34 yards and was missed on a walk-in touchdown with no-one around him which would have got us the total as well. A poor week all round for me actually. Apologies.
Week 3 is here though, and after a week filled with injuries to key players there's a few bits of value, and few things areas where you might have been able to garner some value through the week. It's all good, onwards and upwards for this week.
General rule of thumb is to take teams who are 0-2 against 2-0 teams, so, the Falcons vs the Bears, the Vikings hosting the Titans, Texans at Steelers, Lions at Cardinals those 4 teams fill the mould this week. However I'm not touching the Vikings or Lions, the Vikings defense looks terrible and I really rate the Cardinals this year. The Texans have a better chance, they've played the two best teams in the league so far, but the matchup doesn't bode well for them, they've allowed the most QB pressures this year and the Steelers have provided the most pressures. It could be a rough evening for Deshaun Watson.
Falcons -3 vs the Bears.
The one game which gives me a 0-2 team vs a 2-0 team is this one, and even if it wasn't for the record of the teams I think I'd have taken it, the Bears are a fraudulent 2-0 team after a comeback win to the Lions which they should have lost on the final play and scraping past the Giants without Saquon Barkley last week. They face a high scoring team this week in the Falcons and I don't think they'll be able to keep up with them. The Falcons have faced the NFC player of the week for the first two weeks in Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. Now there's a good reason they put up points and got the attention, the Falcons defense is terrible. However I don't fear Mitchell Trubisky. The Falcons look like they'll have Julio playing, he does usually play through injuries, but the hamstring strain he got limited in game last week so I think he's likely a distraction which will help Calvin Ridley continue his brilliant form so far, 2 TDs and 100+ yards in each game this season for him. I think the Falcons out-score the Bears and cover the 3.
Cincinnati Bengals v Philadelphia Eagles OVER 46.5
I'm kinda surprised the total is below 50 in this one, the Bengals have had the most offensive snaps of any team in the league and if they get behind, which they tend to do, they've shown they'll put it all on Joe Burrows shoulders to lead the team down the field. They stumbled in week 1 but should have won, they covered (or pushed) the spread, and they put up 30 on the Browns on TNF 10 days ago. They have shown they still can't defend the run so I expected the Eagles to use Miles Sanders a lot as well as their TE duo to put up points. On the Bengals side they go 5 wide often and I think Drew Sample is in for a big game in this one. They have shown a propensity to target the TE, 11 receptions for the position last game, 7 of them to Sample while the Eagles have allowed 9 receptions and 4 TDs to that position through their two games so far. I don't think either team will be able to slow either offense. Overs for me. (I've personally had a little nibble on over 60.5 in this and o69.5 in Seattle as a 25/1ish double)
D'Andre Swift o21.5 receiving yards. – 1.83 (365/Skybet/Hills)
The rookie RB put his drop in week 1 behind him last week to rack up 60 yards on 5 receptions against the Packers in the game which they were trailing from the 2nd quarter. I expect them to be trailing in a high scoring game this week and it looks like Swift is the pass-catching back with Kerryon and Adrian Peterson doing most of the groundwork. Most of the time teams tend to run the ball at the end of the game to take time off the clock and wither away the game, the Cardinals don't do that though they keep throwing which means the Lions will have to keep scoring as well.
Touchdown Scorer (Shortie)
Miles Sanders – 10/11 (Skybet/Betfred)
I had a few bits of value early in the weekend which doesn't help anyone now, but Jordan Reed, Jeff Wilson were priced well as was Drew Sample who I mentioned above. But I'll try and be sensible with the short priced one this week. The Bengals still seem unable to stop the run, they allowed 140 odd yards to the Chargers in week 1 and 215 yards to the best RB duo in the league Chubb and Hunt last weekend. They'll face Miles Sanders this week who had over 75% of the teams snaps and carries last week, and attributed 37% of the total yardage put up by them as well both on the ground and through the air. I've got to think he finds the endzone this week.
Touchdown Scorer (Longshot – half stake)
Alex Armah – 40/1 (365)
Now this one may be utterly stupid, so I really shouldn't be putting it out there to be recorded, but the Carolina full back had that carry at the end of their opener, which he failed to get… however they're without Christian McCaffrey this week, do I think there's a chance he's used as a goal-line back? Yeah, why the hell not. The issue will be whether they get to the goal-line to be able to do that. I'm not expecting this to land, but at the odds, without their main man they might use other options so why the hell not.
- Falcons -3 vs. the Bears – 10/11
- Bengals v Eagles OVER 46.5 – 10/11
- Miles Sanders anytime TD – 10/11 (Skybet/Betfred)
- Alex Armah anytime TD – 40/1 (365)
Good luck with whatever you're on this week, as always check out my site for more previews TDtips.com
Lets hope it's a good weekend.