NFL Picks: Packers @ Bears – Green Bay to edge low-scoring affair

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

• 1:20am Friday 6th September, Soldier Field, Chicago.
• Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Low scoring affair in the offing?

The season is finally hear and for the 100th anniversary of the NFL they've swapped out their usual Superbowl winner opening the season to go for the longest running rivalry in the game as the Green Bay Packers visit Soldier field to take on the Chicago Bears for the 199th time in their histories, for the record the Pack are ahead by 2 in the overall standings.

So what's going to happen tonight?

I have no idea. In all honesty I am expecting it to be a low scoring affair. Divisional games are usually lower scoring than others because the teams know each other so well, the Bears defense was one of the best in the league last year and Aaron Rodgers doesn't do very well in Chicago in general.

The Packers defense is also, on paper at least, looking like a really good unit this year, they've added pace and youth all over and should be able to keep Trubisky in the pocket where he's less effective. Add to all this the fact that neither team played a lot of their starters in pre-season which means the offenses might not be fully up to speed and the under 46.5 points on show looks like a tempting bet.

I think that the Packers win tonight. It doesn't go to form, or the fixtures history in Chicago, but the change of head coach in the off-season will have a big effect on them.

The rift between Mike (not Mick) McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers had been growing and was clear to see for all, Rodgers just didn't seem to be putting in the effort that he used to, and was changing a lot of plays at the line of scrimmage.

With new coaching he'll be in F-You mode trying to prove that he wasn't the issue, additionally the new HC they brought in is from the McVay and Shanahan tree so should be able to get players in space and create easy throws.

The Bears defense was the main reason for their success last year with 27 interceptions and that will regress. It's not a “sticky” stat year on year and defensive genius Vic Fangio leaving for Denver will hurt them as well. They had one of the easier schedules last year and 3rd best injury luck. Basically it all came together for them last year.

I trust in Matt Nagy to scheme well on offense, I'm not sure I trust Trubisky to convert that into anything on the field though.

Look at it this way. Would you prefer Rodgers or Trubisky? Adams or Robinson? Jones or Montgomery? Graham or Burton/Shaheen? In all areas on offense I'd take the Green Bay players, and honestly I think their defense will surprise a lot of people this year.

If you want a TD scorer, Davante Adams is probably your man, he had nearly half of the Packers receiving TDs last season, 12 of his 13 coming from within the Red zone where he was the most targeted player in the league. It's not easy against the Bears secondary, but he seems the most likely for me, it is reflected in the price though, best priced at 2.00 on Paddy Power.

If you're up late enough to check team news then keep an eye on whether Trey Burton is playing or not, if not then get to Skybet quickly for 5.50 on Adam Shaheen anytime, he's the backup tight end and at 6'6″ 274lb he's a tough guy to stop.

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• Total points u46.5 available everywhere.

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