NFL Opening night; Detroit Lions @ KC Chiefs – Best bets

I say it every year, but that 9 months between Super Bowl and the new season starting seems to drag doesn't it! But we made it to the start of the 23/24 season as 32 teams look to make the Super Bowl in Las Vegas… I missed going to LA when the Bengals made it last time around, would I hand over £10k to get to see them in Vegas? Probably not, but it's nice to have that thought before the season starts, and I'd imagine half the league have mildly realistic hopes of being one of the teams taking the field at the Allegiant stadium in February next year.

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Lions +4.5 @ Chiefs: 53

As is tradition the Super Bowl winners get to host the opening game and once again it's the Chiefs after they took advantage of the lack of suitable footwear on the Eagles side of things to beat them in the finalé last season, and this year the league have chosen one of the possible up-and-comers to take part in the opener with the Lions coming in on the back of a 9-win season last year.

It should be a cracking game to kick things off, we all know the Chiefs record coming off of extended rest is phenomenal and with a total of 53 points on the board the bookies clearly think we're going to get off to a flyer here, the Chiefs tend to score very freely in week 1 of NFL seasons so the team total of 30 points isn't exactly a shock, the least they've scored in week 1 with Mahomes at the helm has been 33 points, unsurprisingly they've done well in those games going 4-1 against the spread, and since the Lions have been led by Jared Goff they've been involved in two openers with more than 70 points, so the overs looks a good lean straight away!

Kansas City Chiefs

Let's kick off the nitty-gritty with the champs then, Patrick Mahomes is of course the best QB in the game at the moment and I will repeat once more, I think he'll be the best we've ever seen when all is said and done and this year even more so he might have to do more with less than he's ever had, I'm sure he won't mind doing that but he'd probably like a WR corps like the Bengals do… There's not a whole lot to say about Mahomes really, if he can't find guys through the air he'll take off and scramble for the key yards, if the WR/TE aren't available, he'll dump it off to Pacheco or McKinnon and they'll do some work. They're an annoyingly well-run offense with Andy Reid as coach, will the change of OC make a difference? Probably not.

To begin the lack of high-draft talent we've got Isiah Pacheco at running back who earnt the role as a 7th round pick, I am apparently a bit of a snob with these things and I'm not sure he'll ever be that far above average but he will get the touches and with this team they'll be valuable touches. I do, however, quite like Jerick McKinnon in this team, he finished the year on a crazy run of TDs with 8 receiving TDs in December and January and I don't see why that won't continue this season. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a high pick by the Chiefs but things just don't seem to have worked out for him so far.

The WR group is “led” by Marquez Valdes-Scantling who was on the roster last year? That's about as positive as I can be about someone with u700 yards and 2 TDs… He obviously does his job well enough but as with most of this group they don't really jump out at you. Kadarius Toney is fun and I hope that he stays healthy for the season although after an injury in pre-season he comes into this one probably less than 100%, so it's not exactly a great start, he will get the ball all over the field and can make things happen. The good news for Chiefs fans, and I guess humanity in general is that it looks like Justyn Ross will make his debut tonight after seemingly getting through a potentially career-ending back injury, he was on for a first-round pick before the injury flared up so I'm hopeful he'll turn into a stud (as an owner in many fantasy leagues). Skyy Moore scored in the Super Bowl, he has a similar skillset to Toney and should have a bigger role coming into year 2 in the league and they brought in Richie James from the Giants over the summer as well who has shown bits in poorer teams that he may do well here. Oh, and Chiefs fans like Rashee Rice who they drafted this year, I'm waiting on that one.

The lede here though really should have been about Travis Kelce who hyper-extended his knee in training in the week, there's no real damage but I personally think he'll miss out tonight (although latest news suggests he will give it a go) and that is a huge miss for the Chiefs as he dominates the target share and redzone chances each year. Without him you're looking at Noah Gray and Blake Bell to try and fill in. Obviously, they can't replace Kelce but it gives them more of a chance in the redzone.

The main news on defense is that elite D-Lineman Chris Jones will miss out as he barters over a new deal, so they may well struggle to get pressure against one of the better OLs in the league. Great news for the neutrals wanting a lot of points.

It sounds a negative preview, but when you've got Mahomes it doesn't really matter. They'll score points. They always do.

Detroit Lions

So it looks like games with Goff and the Lions tend to start very high-scoring as well and having tweaked their offense from where they were last year I don't see why that will change here. The weather is fine in KC so Goff won't have to struggle with anything other than the atmosphere. I quite like him as a QB and I think he'll do a good job although the supporting cast around him isn't exactly littered with studs either, he does have a new young pass-catching back and TE to get the ball to if he does feel any pressure.

The running back room received a re-vamp and upgrade as 17 TD Jamaal Williams moved on to the Saints to be replaced by David Montgomery who comes in FA after spending his career with the Bears, I think he's an upgrade to the bruiser role and while I liked D'Andre Swift, the Lions clearly didn't as they picked up Jahmyr Gibbs early in the draft. It seems like he's coming in to by Swift-PLUS and from videos we've seen of the draft room they definitely love him so it will be interesting to see how they split the work. I personally think it'll be 70/30 or so to Monty on the ground and the opposite through the air with Monty getting a lot of the goal-line work (hence why I've been so high on his rushing TD line). I am looking forward to seeing Gibbs in action though.

Amon-Ra St. Brown came off a surprising rookie year to show it was no fluke as he smashed last year too with 1,161 yards and over 100 receptions. He'll be the lead once more as the players around him don't exactly jump off the page. Josh Reynolds and returning Marvin Jones are listed as the other starters on ourlads.com – that's not exactly promising with Antoine Green and Kaliff Raymond behind them, Raymond will get a deep shot or two per game so keep an eye out on his prices through the year.

At TE they traded away TJ Hockenson (who recently reset the market in terms of wage) and went with Brock Wright who did admirably, but they've brought in Sam Laporta in the draft, now TE's tend to start their careers slow so don't be afraid to go on Wright or James Mitchell for a TD if the price is high enough.

The defense isn't great although Aiden Hutchinson came on strong at the end of the year and James Houston notched up some good pressure as well, the secondary was poor so they brought in CJGJ from the Eagles at Safety, he seems to have made it back from an injury scare to be available tonight so that'll help at least.

Overview

It's Mahomes, Andy Reid and the Chiefs, even if Kelce doesn't play they'll probably still hit 30 points. (Latest news at 1800 suggests Kelce is likely to play…) with him they should be fine and the 4.5 points is a gift. It will probably move back towards 6.5 if he's confirmed a “go”.

Betting-wise? I won't be betting the main markets, but I'd have to take the Chiefs to cover and the over.

I do like Gibbs o3.5 receptions – 1/1 Skybet seems to be the best price I can find. I wouldn't be shocked if they feature him heavily on the opening drive.

5/2 for Jerrick McKinnon is good enough a price for me to go on him at 888Sport

I have gone for a little bet-builder at PP, came out to around 30/1;

• • David Montgomery – Any Time Touchdown Scorer

• • Jerick McKinnon – Any Time Touchdown Scorer

• • Jerick McKinnon Over – Jerick McKinnon – Receiving Yds

• • Isiah Pacheco 40+ Yards – Isiah Pacheco – Alt Rushing Yds

• • Jahmyr Gibbs Over 3.5 recs – Jahmyr Gibbs – Total Receptions

I do think Montgomery gets the goal-line work so it might be the only time you get him above evens at 13/10, but I'm here for bigger odds than that. LET'S GO!

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