NFL Divsional round weekend – The best weekend of the season

Divisional Weekend is here!

So we're on to the best weekend, 4 games, the top 2 in each conference being brought in to play the teams who earned a spot in the final 8 last week.

Minnesota Vikings +7 @ San Francisco 49ers – Total: 44.5

The 49ers absolutely spanked them! Domination in all areas of the game last night, under on the total though.

• Dalvin Cook anytime TD – 11/10 (365)
• Raheem Mostert anytime TD – 23/20 (888/Uni)

Both of them sucked, Cook was shut down and Coleman got all the play for the 49ers.

Tennessee Titans +10 @ Baltimore Ravens: Total – 47.5

Glad I didn't recommend anything on this one, a HUUUUUGE shock on the night as the Titans won again, easily as well. They were outgained almost double by the Ravens but it didn't matter, 160 passing yards in 2 weeks? Doesn't matter. Derrick Henry over 180 yards for the 3rd straight game, the first person ever to do that. That matters. Amazing result for the Titans.

Houston Texans +10 @ Kansas City Chiefs: Total – 50.5

The Texans scraped through in a crazy comeback against the Bills last week, they trailed 16-0 early in the second half but a JJ Watt sack on his return to the team changed the momentum and Deshaun Watson, the magician did the rest. He was lights out in the second half after a pretty terrible first half.

They face a Chiefs team who rank high against the pass but are missing rookie Juan Thornhill who had been very good for them this season. The Texans should welcome back Will Fuller who changes their offense massively and should be able to get open down field. The run game is the way to get at the Chiefs this year and that's a complicated area. If they get behind then they will more than likely go away from Carlos Hyde who still got a decent amount of carries last week. WHEN THEY TRAIL they'll probably use Duke Johnson more coming out of the backfield and he's one of the best pass catching backs in the game against a Chiefs team who are poor against that type of back. DJJ receiving line is 25.5

The Chiefs come off their bye in good health, Kelce has been listed with a knee injury, Chris Jones is questionable as well which hurts their pass rush. They've looked good on offense in recent weeks as players get healthy. It's been a rough season for them on an injury front as Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams and Patrick Mahomes have all been injured at various points during the season. Andy Reid coming off a bye is something you'll probably hear a lot about, he's got a good straight up record, not that great against the spread. Interestingly the total has only gone over in ONE of their last SEVEN games coming off a bye week, although that's more restricting the opposition than themselves not scoring. Patrick Mahomes games off a bye they've averaged 36 points a game. I quite like Mecole Hardman in this one, I'm not sure why, but just a feeling he'll have a decent game.

The running game for the Chiefs is a difficult to choose, I think it will be Damien Williams who was the 1 coming into the season and has had the bulk of touches in the final two weeks of the season. My one worry is that McCoy was “time managed” during the season and surely they've done that for a reason? But speaking to a Chiefs fan he reckons McCoy he fallen out of favour due to fumbling and it will be largely Damien Williams. Turns out the Texans are poor vs pass catching backs too, his rec. line is at 22.5

Bet; 

• Duke Johnson o25.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (365)
• Mecole Hardman o20.5 receiving yards – 1.91 (Will Hill)

Seattle Seahawks +4 @ Green Bay Packers: Total – 45.5

A tough one to finish off the weekend. I thought coming into this that I would definitely be on the Seahawks getting points against a Green Bay team who somehow managed to get the bye week in the NFC despite being pretty damn awful all season.

The Seahawks scraped through against a 40 year old backup last week after a Clowney cheap shot took out Carson Wentz for the game. They want to run the ball more but haven't been able to since they lost Carson, Penny and Prosise. They've been forced into using Travis Homer who's a third down back trying to do more and Marshawn Lynch who re-joined after having a year out of the game. He's not looked match fit but they've said they will use him more tonight and he's shown in goalline rushes that he's difficult to stop.

Russell Wilson is the best QB in the NFC. He's under pressure most of the time, but scrambles and throws better than anyone else on the run. Tyler Lockett is his usual target when scrambling, but DK Metcalf has had a good rookie season and shown that he's expert at running very quick in a straight line and being bigger than everyone. I tipped him last week and he had 160 yards and a TD. I wouldn't be shocked if he tops 100 and scores again in this one. David Moore chips in, I've liked him since he won be 1,400 quid a couple of years back. Jacob Hollister is their tight end, he gets involved quite a lot especially in the redzone.

Aaron Rodgers doesn't look happy and hasn't had a very good season, he ranked 21st in QBR on ESPN which is pretty poor. It doesn't help that he's only got one player that he actually wants the pass the ball to in the form of Davante Adams who has double digit targets in 8 of their last 9 games, averaging about 7 receptions in each of them. Outside of him they tend to try at least one deep ball to Marquez Valdes-Scantling down the field but he's fallen out of trust due to not being able to catch anything, Geronimo Allison is distinctly average, and Allen Lazard seems to have taken over the WR2 slot for them, he's had 17 targets in the last 2 weeks.

Jimmy Graham isn't very good any more, but the Seahawks are the second worst team in the league against tight ends and Graham still gets frequently targeted, so in theory he should have a good game tonight. If you wanted a truly ridiculous long shot then rookie TE Jace Sternberger is 22/1 on 888/Unibet.

Bets;

• Jimmy Graham anytime TD – 4.50 (Skybet)

Good luck tonight, enjoy the games!

Adam.

🔗 Share on Social Media