A great weekend of football last week has led us to the final 8 teams and the divisional round, it was a good weekend for the bets I put up on here too as the teaser treble landed on Saturday and Chase Claypool did the job on Sunday night to bring home his anytime and 2 or more at 17/2 on Paddypower.

The Saturday games this week shape up well, it's a shame they're so late for us in the UK, but it is what it is, the NFC is first up at 935, and arguably the best game of the weekend the Ravens v Bills is 115am for us over here.

LA Rams +6.5 vs. Green Bay Packers: 45

The key to this game is the Ramsey vs. Adams matchup, if the Rams are going to win this then they need to keep him quiet and get home to Rodgers. I don't think the Rams are going to put up a lot of points themselves, Jared Goff is 0-4 in his career in temperatures under 35, and does not do well in the cold, add to that a poorly thumb and I'm not expecting a whole lot from the Rams side of the ball I'm afraid. Aaron Donald looks like he'll be playing through torn rib cartilage but should still be able to get home on Rodgers, he's a damn machine. – Cooper Kupp looked like he did his knee quite seriously last week, it's not as bad as expected but he's probably not going to be full strength meaning Woods and Reynolds will likely have to step up. Could mean more for Higbee who got a lot of snaps last week once Goff took over.

Cam Akers is the main man for them on offense though, he had 176 scrimmage yards and a TD last week from his 31 touches. He'll probably get a fair bit in the receiving game if they're trailing which the line suggests they will be in this one.

Aaron Rodgers has been brilliant this year, and sitting at #1 in TDs, INTs and QBR he's rightly going to win MVP when that vote is finalised in a couple of weeks. He's only been sacked 20 times this year and a quarter of those came in one game, but he'll probably face more pressure with his LT and RT both out, and facing Aaron Donald. He's not got a whole lot to throw too which makes his season even more impressive. Davante Adams led the league with 18 TDs, and Robert Tonyan scored 11 from the TE position as well. Marquez Valdes-Scantling will likely get a few deep targets and may well catch one, although the Rams are good at stopping deep plays.

Aaron Jones has 4 TDs in the 2 playoff games he's had in his career and will probably be the bellcow back for them while Jamaal Williams will get a few receptions as well. I don't mind AJ Dillon at 12/1 but he's rightly a long-shot after 1 carry in the final game of the season.

I can't see the Rams winning, despite the adage that defense wins championships I just don't see Goff getting the Rams to enough points to keep things close.

Total passing yardage – Under 520.5 – 4/5 (365)

Baltimore Ravens +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills: 49

The late, late game of the night should be the most exciting of the weekend as the Ravens meet the Bills after shutting down the Titans last week while the Bills struggled to a win against the Colts.

Both QBs got the monkey off their backs from losses in the playoffs last year to get their first wins and they're the keys to the game.

The Ravens should be able to move the ball on the ground, of course they do every game but that's the weakest spot of the Bills defense and the triple-headed monster of Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards should all put up yards after their 236 combined last week. Lamar had 136 of those and a TD, while JK Dobbins found the endzone for his 7th game in a row to cap a brilliant end to the season.

Marquise Brown had another 100 yard game, his second in his 2 playoff games, and Mark Andrews has a good match up in the middle of the field against the Bills who conceded 9 TDs in the regular season to the position as well as 1 last week and allowed 136 yards to the Colts TEs.

The Bills are going to be relying even more heavily on their passing game after losing Zack Moss last week, it leaves them thin on the ground and I don't think Montgomery picks up the slack, I think they'll just pass the ball more, it's where the Ravens are weaker, if anything it could mean more rush attempts from Allen who found the endzone last week and may well do that again this week.

Stefon Diggs will lead the way through the air again, he led the league in receptions and yards in the regular season and topped 100 and scored last week. Cole Beasley should get his receptions, as always he caught all 7 of his targets last week, and a line of 4.5 receptions at plus money is good, John Brown will do better than his nothing last week and Gabriel Davis had a good rookie season, I wouldn't be shocked to see Dawson Knox find the endzone again either.

I think the Ravens win this one, but it's too tight to call, I'm surprised the line has come down, the weather isn't as bad as expected and both teams should put up points.

Mark Andrews anytime TD – 21/10 (Paddypower)

Good luck with your bets this weekend, I'll get a Sunday preview up tomorrow.

Adam (@TouchdowTips)

  1. dj76 4 months ago

    Just a double for me after a poor return last week i think rodgers & green bay will be too strong for the rams at home & will cover the handicap & i’m backing lamar jackson to continue his great form on the ground by going over on his rushing yards again.

    Packers -6.5 & jackson over 77.5 rushing yards

    5/2 @ Skybet

  2. nflfan 4 months ago

    The bills v ravens is a genuine 50-50
    Like last week like josh Allen pass yards
    Over 294.5 10/11 skybet
    Ravens rank last against the pass
    Allen got a cannon of an arm
    Early game like Tonyan packers tightend
    6/4 anytime touch down
    Rodgers like to find him

  3. nflfan 4 months ago

    Miss read my stats ravens not last against the pass but still feel Allen goes over the total 294.5 pass
    The only way they win the bills that is so will air it out
    Sorry any confusion about ravens D
    Silly me 🤷‍♂️

  4. Johnb 4 months ago

    NFL Teaser Treble
    1.23/1 bet365 (already advised)

    LA Rams at Green Bay Packers (21:35)
    LA RAMS +14.5

    Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (20:05)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (23:40)

    Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (20:05)

    OVER 57 points
    10/11 bet365 NAP (already advised)

    Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (01:15)

    GABRIEL DAVIS anytime touchdown
    10/3 paddy power

    GABRIEL DAVIS over 25.5 receiving yards
    5/6 bet365

    Gabriel Davis is a value scorer pick when you see that he has scored 7 touchdowns from 16 games this season, he also has an average of 2.18 receptions per games for an average of 37.44 yards per game

    JK DOBBINS over 60.5 rushing yards
    5/6 bet365


    LA Rams at Green Bay Packers (21:35)

    MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING over 23.5 receiving yards
    5/6 bet365

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (23:40)

    CHRIS GODWIN over 68.5 receiving yards
    5/6 bet365

    Although the Saints pass defence is ranked 5th I can see Chris Godwin having a good game, Saints cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore should be covering Buccs wide receivers Mike Evans and Antonio Brown, leaving Chris Godwin to be covered by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson who has allowed the 8th most receptions in the league from the slot position, In two games against the Saints this season, Godwin has
    3 receptions for 41 yards
    6 receptions for 79 yards
    Tom Brady has struggled in both games against the Saints this season, his passer rating has gone below 80 on three occasions this season with two of those against the Saints, if you also look at interceptions, Brady has had 12 this season. with 5 of those against the Saints,
    Brady could struggle to connect with Brown and Evans so expect to see him throw to Godwin more,
    Chris Godwin’s stats this season have seen him complete 65 catches for 840 yards in 13 games, giving game averages of 5 receptions per game and 12.92 yards per reception, meaning 6 catches should cover this 68.5 yard total, last week Godwin surprisingly dropped 5 passes but don’t expect him to do that again


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