NFL tips; Week 6 – Change of coaching does it for AP? #NFL100

There was no post on Thursday as it wasn't a game I wanted to be involved in, of course I went and one on a Request a bet on Sky, but wasn't confident in much so gave it a miss for you guys.

All day for AP

You might think the Redkins v Dolphins game is a weird one to start with, but with both of these teams coming into the game at 0-5 there's a bit of value around on it, and I don't think this line reflects the change of head coach in Washington. The offensive line coach Bill Callahan has taken the reigns in the capital and he's said all week that he want to establish the run game. That means a lot of carries for Adrian Peterson who can still do it when given the chance and AP himself has said he's excited to see how it all goes tonight against a poor Dolphins defense.

Dirty birds win the avian battle in Arizona

The one spread I'm most confident in this week is the Falcons -2.5 in Arizona. Neither team has impressed this year, the Falcons have been unable to defend and the Cardinals haven't exactly revolutionised the league in the way they thought they might coming into the season. But one of these teams is led by a top tier QB with an elite WR to throw the ball to, and that's the one I'm leaning on here. Matt Ryan has over 300 yards in every game, and multiple TDs in 4 of his 5 this season and has three legitimate targets to throw the ball to. The Cardinals are banged up with David Johnson likely to play through a back injury. Look for Austin Hooper to continue the TE trend against Arizona, but I'm sticking with the Spread and Total.

David to give Moore in Cleveland

I have a confession. I can't stop betting on David Moore to score touchdowns when he's on the field. It all started last season when he scored once at 14/1 and twice and 500/1 on Paddypower for me to win a considerable amount (and for Paddy to stop offering those prices with a max of 100/1 on double scores now) – So I feel I owe him a bit of faith and at the prices he is most weeks, he usually pays off for me. He gets a lot of redzone targets for the Seahawks and I'll always have a nibble at 6/1.

Rookie QB to run on Chargers

What do rookie QBs like to do in their first game or two in a team? They generally aim for high-percentage targets, the slot, the tight ends, the running backs, short easily completed passes. They also have a propensity to run the ball when pressure gets on them as well. Devlin Hodges came in for the Steelers last week after Mason Rudolph took a brutal hit and was out cold immediately, and he did pretty well, almost leading the team to a win. He completed 7 of 9 passes, but also had 2 rushes for 20 yards on the ground and that's the line I'm attacking in this one, set at 11.5 on Skybet and 365.

Recommended Bets;

• Adrian Peterson o56.5 rushing yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)
• Atlanta Falcons -2.5 and o52 points – 3.64/1 (365)
• David Moore anytime TD – 6/1 (Unibet/888)
• Devlin Hodges o11.5 rushing yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)

Good luck if you're on anything tonight, and remember the Bucs v Panthers at Spurs is on at 1430! (quite like the Bucs to win that one)

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