Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Sporting scored early on Friday night allowing our bet to coast home. They wrapped up the game very late on with their second goal, winning the fixture 2-0. Now we are back in the Premier League for bet 4.
Bet 4 – Brentford vs Nottingham Forest – Saturday 31st October at 15:00
Brentford welcome Nottingham Forest to the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday. The Premier League meeting offers a strong opportunity to back at least two goals, with both teams producing encouraging attacking numbers at the relevant venues.
The strongest argument is the 100% success rate for over 1.5 goals across Brentford's four home matches and Nottingham Forest's four away fixtures. All eight have produced at least two goals, with a combined average of 3.00 per game.
Brentford have scored eight goals and conceded three at home. Their attacking output is supported by averages of 2.15 xG, 15.25 shots, 4.50 shots on target and 11.50 attempts inside the penalty area. The Bees also average 3.75 big chances per home match, demonstrating their ability to create high-quality scoring opportunities.
Their attacking threat extends to set pieces, with 0.91 xG generated from those situations per home fixture.
Nottingham Forest's away performances provide equally compelling evidence. They have scored six goals and conceded seven across four matches, with their fixtures averaging 3.25 goals. Forest's underlying attacking statistics are particularly strong. They average 2.46 xG, 18.75 shots, 5.25 shots on target and 14.25 attempts inside the box on their travels.
Their average of 5.75 big chances per away match is especially significant, suggesting their attacking performances have deserved more than the six goals scored. There are also opportunities against both defences. Brentford allow opponents 14.00 shots and 4.00 shots on target per home fixture, while Forest concede an average of 1.75 goals away.
Forest's defensive performances have produced 1.79 xGOT against per away match, further supporting the prospect of Brentford finding the net.
With both teams scoring in three of their four matches at the relevant venues, the attacking statistics suggest goals from either side are a realistic prospect. The combination of an 8/8 record for over 1.5 goals, strong xG figures and regular big chances makes at least two goals the preferred selection at 11/50.
- Bet: Over 1.5 match goals
- Odds: 11/50
- Bank: 17.29 units returns 21.09
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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