Our La Liga outright winner odds and prediction analyse the chances of teams battling to displace Real Madrid as the kings of Spain.
The usual suspects – Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid – are the main title challengers, but is there anyone else who could do what Girona did last term and mix it with the traditional heavyweights? Let's take a look.
Best La Liga outright winner odds
Barcelona – 4/11
Despite a fine start to life under Hansi Flick, Barcelona were still as long as 13/8 at the beginning of October to win La Liga. That all changed with their thumping win in El Clasico, resulting in a new odds-on favourite in the outright winner market heading into November, but a miserable run of results at the end of 2024, turned the tide back in the favour of the Madrid clubs.
Barca have looked much more convincing in 2025 though, and they have now reeled off nine straight victories in La Liga to regain top spot. That includes a vital 4-2 comeback win at the Estadio Metropolitano against Atletico Madrid just before the international break, with Flick's side scoring four goals after the 70th minute to land a potentially knockout blow on one of their two title rivals.
With Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha forming a potent front three, the Catalans have at times looked unstoppable going forwards. They've rattled in 82 league goals already, and 139 in all competitions.
It has already been a title race of many twists and turns, but Barca are odds-on to win La Liga again. They shortened from 6/5 to 8/11 as a result of the matchday 26 action, and were cut further to 4/6 after their win at the Estadio Metropolitano.
They were angry at being made to play their rearranged game against Osasuna, less than 48 hours after some of their players had been involved in international matches. However, a 3-0 win in that match, swiftly followed by the 4-1 demolition of Girona, leaves Barca in a very commanding position at the top of the table.
They hold a three-point advantage on their nearest challengers, and the bookies have slashed their title odds to 4/11 as a result of those latest results.
Real Madrid – 5/2
Who will win La Liga in 2024/25? According to the bookies, it was hard to look past Real Madrid at the beginning of the season, but their odds did lengthen significantly following humiliation in El Clasico and a slightly unconvincing start overall.
Following the postponement of their trip to Valencia in late 2024, Real Madrid were already nine points off the pace at the top, but they responded well with eight wins out of 10 in La Liga, following their 4-0 defeat to Barcelona in October.
With their great rivals capitulating during that period, Los Blancos regained their status as favourites, and they were as short as 4/9 to successfully defend their title by the end of January.
However, it is Real Madrid who have been stuttering since then. With some controversial refereeing decisions going against them, they dropped points in three league games on the spin in February, while a 2-1 defeat at the Benito Villamarin against Real Betis at the start of March was another major setback.
Hard-fought wins over Rayo Vallecano, Villarreal and Leganes have come since then, all via one-goal margins. However, Ancelotti's side are not playing convincing football right now, and the natives are restless with some whistles again greeting their performance at the Bernabeu on Saturday.
They are now available at 5/2 to win La Liga, but they may need to win El Clasico in Barcelona in May to stand a realistic chance.
Atletico Madrid – 40/1
This has been a three-horse race, although Atletico Madrid are now in real danger of slipping out of contention for major silverware, after a number of domestic and European setbacks.
There was excitement at the Estadio Metropolitano after Los Rojiblancos made four major additions in their boldest summer transfer window in several years. Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez, Conor Gallagher and Robin Le Normand all looked like smart signings that would freshen up an Atleti team that can still count on Antoine Griezmann's brilliance.
However, draws in five of their opening nine games, meant that Atletico quickly fell off the pace at the top and they were priced at greater than 20/1 to win La Liga by November.
They really hit form around the turn of the year though, with the likes of Pablo Barrios and Giuliano Simeone injecting some youthful energy into the side. They recorded a club-record 15 straight victories in all competitions, and had lost just once in 26 matches heading into the first leg of their Champions League tie against city rivals Real Madrid.
However, late collapses against Getafe and Barcelona in La Liga, followed by a draw at Espanyol in their first game back following the internationals, mean that Atleti's title challenge is fading fast. They've drifted out to 40/1 to win La Liga as a result of that latest setback.
- Best odds for Atletico Madrid to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 1/12
Athletic Club – 1000/1
On paper, Athletic Club always looked the best equipped of the other teams to challenge. Holding onto Euro 2024 star Nico Williams was key and there were no major departures, which suggested they could potentially go one better than last season's fifth place, with Girona falling back this term.
They've had a terrific campaign and were unbeaten in 16 league matches heading into their recent trip to the Estadio Metropolitano. However, a 1-0 defeat in Madrid effectively ended any suggestion that they might be able to fight for the title, and they dropped points again against Osasuna at the weekend, meaning the Basques are now distant 1000/1 shots.
- Best odds for Athletic Club to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 15/2
Who will win La Liga? Here’s our prediction
The pre-season La Liga outright winner odds pointed towards a successful Real Madrid title defence, but Barcelona's overall improvement under Flick and a competitive Atletico Madrid suggest that we have a really exciting race on our hands, that could go to the wire.
Despite periods of European dominance, Los Blancos haven’t won back-to-back league titles in 16 years. Since Pep Guardiola was appointed Barca boss in 2008, the Catalans have won La Liga nine times to Real Madrid’s five, and the latest odds suggest that Barcelona is the most likely destination for this season's title too.
Barca have certainly had higher highs than Real Madrid this season, with Raphinha, Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal clicking better than the forward players in the Spanish capital.
Even at the age of 17, Yamal already feels like an absolutely elite-level performer. He's added more composure in front of goal to his game this term, and is already in double figures for goals and assists in all competitions. Meanwhile, Raphinha has arguably been the best player in Spain, in a major transformation of his fortunes.
Barca's dip in form in late 2024 did coincide with an injury for Yamal, with four of their five league defeats coming when the teenager wasn't a starter, while they've won 21 out of 24 with the winger. They look to be getting back to their best level now, and the Catalans are worthy of their status as 4/11 favourites.
While Real Madrid are over the worst of their defensive injury crisis, a lack of depth in some key positions still looks to be an issue for Ancelotti, particularly with them going deep in the Champions League again.
Atletico Madrid's chances are fading, and the psychological damage of their European exit against Real, and league defeat to Barca, will take some time to recover from. They do have less distractions now though, and they don't have to face top-five opposition again this season in La Liga, but a nine-point gap looks insurmountable with just nine games to play.
Los Rojiblancos are still the obvious choice in the more niche ‘w/o Real and Barcelona' odds market. Diego Simeone's side have finished above the other 17 teams in the division in 11 of the last 12 seasons and they are available at 1/12 to do likewise this term.
Mark is a freelance football writer based in Madrid. He has been covering Spanish and European football for more than 10 years. He regularly attends matches in La Liga and covers the Spanish top flight for MFT.
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