Our La Liga outright winner odds and prediction analyse the chances of teams battling to displace Real Madrid as the kings of Spain.
The usual suspects – Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid – are expected to be the main title challengers, but is there anyone else who could do what Girona did last term and mix it with the traditional heavyweights? Let's take a look.
Best La Liga outright winner odds
Barcelona – 4/5
Despite a fine start to life under Hansi Flick, Barcelona were still as long as 13/8 at the beginning of October to win La Liga. That has all changed now, with their thumping 4-0 win in El Clasico resulting in a new favourite in the outright winner market for the 2024/25 Spanish top flight.
They've since made it 11 wins from 13 games to start their domestic campaign. With 40 goals scored over that period, Flick's impact has been both dramatic and immediate with the German reviving the fortunes of the Catalan giants after a frustrating 2023/24 season.
Youngsters such as Marc Casado, Pau Cubarsi and Lamine Yamal have gone from strength to strength under his guidance so far, while veteran striker Robert Lewandowski has been prolific with 19 goals in 17 matches in all competitions.
Barca's title prospects currently look very bright, but challenges still lie ahead as they look to balance league and Champions League action, with a number of injury problems, including a season-ending issue for keeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen.
They did head into the international break following a setback though. A 1-0 defeat at Real Sociedad, in a game which saw Lewandowski have a goal controversially ruled out for offside, resulted in their lead at the top being cut to six points. Their La Liga title odds drifted slightly to 4/5 as a result of that.
Real Madrid – 13/10
Who will win La Liga in 2024/25? According to the bookies, it was hard to look past Real Madrid at the beginning of the season, but their odds have drifted to 13/10 following humiliation in El Clasico and a slightly unconvincing start overall.
They are clearly missing Toni Kroos' controlling influence in midfield, while doubts as to whether new signing Kylian Mbappe is the right stylistic fit for this team are certainly there.
The balance hasn’t looked quite right in the opening games, with Mbappe, Vinicius and Rodrygo all being players who would naturally like to cut in from the left onto their stronger right feet.
Following the postponement of their trip to Valencia, Real Madrid fell nine points behind their great rivals, before cutting the gap with an impressive 4-0 win over Osasuna.
It was another victory that was soured by a major injury though, following on from their success against Villarreal last month which saw Dani Carvajal suffer a season-ending setback. This time it was another defender, Eder Militao, who suffered his second ACL injury in the space of little over a year.
To make matters worse, Lucas Vazquez and Aurelien Tchouameni also picked up injuries, essentially leaving Carlo Ancelotti with only three fit senior defenders right now, two of whom are left-backs.
Atletico Madrid – 28/1
On the surface, Diego Simeone’s side look well equipped to be serious contenders this term and odds of 28/1 seem long given they’ve improved both their starting XI and squad depth this summer.
There was excitement at the Estadio Metropolitano after Atletico Madrid made four major additions in their boldest summer transfer window in several years. Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez, Conor Gallagher and Robin Le Normand all looked like smart signings that should have freshened up an Atleti team that can still count on Antoine Griezmann's brilliance.
However, draws in five of their opening nine games, meant that Atletico Madrid quickly fell off the pace at the top. A first defeat at Real Betis at the end of October and some really poor Champions League displays have added to the sense that it's unlikely to be their year.
Simeone has continued to rotate regularly, but it seems far from clear as to who belongs in his best eleven. If he doesn't find the answer soon, Los Rojiblancos risk falling completely off the pace, but they did at least head into the international break following four straight wins in all competitions.
- Best odds for Atletico Madrid to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 1/2
Villarreal – 250/1
Aside from the usual big three, Villarreal look best placed to mount a challenge at the top end of La Liga this season. They cashed in on Sorloth and goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen for big money this summer and look to have reinvested well with the additions of the likes of Ayoze Perez, Logan Costa, Sergi Cardona and Thierno Barry.
A strong start has raised expectation levels, and unlike the other likely challengers, they have no European distractions which could be significant. A convincing victory over Alaves just prior to the international break leaves them well positioned in fourth place and just two points behind Atletico Madrid, with a game in hand.
Their defence does still look a bit shaky, though, and they'll most likely be targeting fourth rather than first place.
- Best odds for Villarreal to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 6/1
Athletic Club – 300/1
On paper, Athletic look the best equipped of the other clubs to challenge. Holding onto Euro 2024 star Nico Williams has been key and there have been no major departures, which suggested they could potentially go one better than last season's fifth place with Girona expected to fall back this term.
A title challenge looks well beyond their capabilities though, faced with such stiff competition. Ernesto Valverde's side will also be placing a big emphasis on the Europa League, with the final in their own stadium. That could have a knock-on effect on their domestic form as the season wears on.
They'll most likely end up fighting with the likes of Villarreal, Real Betis and potentially Basque rivals Real Sociedad, for the European places.
- Best odds for Athletic Club to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 10/1
Who will win La Liga? Here’s our prediction
The pre-season La Liga outright winner odds pointed towards a successful Real Madrid title defence, but Barcelona's strong early season form suggests we could have a really tight race on our hands.
Despite periods of European dominance, Los Blancos haven’t won back-to-back league titles in 16 years. Since Pep Guardiola was appointed Barca boss in 2008, the Catalans have won La Liga nine times to Real Madrid’s five.
The retirement of Toni Kroos is certainly a significant blow for the defending champions, who have ridden their luck at times so far this season.
Barcelona have certainly had higher highs than Real Madrid, with Raphinha, Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal clicking better than the forward players in the Spanish capital.
Even at the age of 17, Yamal already feels like an absolutely elite level performer. He's added more composure in front of goal to his game this term, with six goals and nine assists already in all competitions.
Flick has sparked real life into Barca and they currently look the fitter and more threatening of the two La Liga giants. Their high line is working well too and despite a couple of off days in La Liga, Barca look worthy of their status as title favourites.
As for the more niche ‘w/o Real and Barcelona' odds market, it's hard to see anyone challenging Atletico Madrid. Even without playing well, Diego Simeone's side are in third place and they have finished above the other 17 teams in the division in 11 of the last 12 seasons. They can be backed at 1/2 to do likewise this term.
