Our La Liga outright winner odds and prediction analyse the chances of teams battling to displace Real Madrid as the kings of Spain.
The usual suspects – Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid – are expected to be the main title challengers, but is there anyone else who could do what Girona did last term and mix it with the traditional heavyweights? Let's take a look.
Best La Liga outright winner odds
Real Madrid – 4/7
Who will win La Liga in 2024/25? According to the bookies, it’s hard to look past Real Madrid, who are the red-hot favourites after losing just two competitive matches last season. That's despite dropping points in two of their opening four league games.
The arrival of French goal machine Kylian Mbappe certainly helps justify their favourites tag. However, it’s by no means a foregone conclusion that Los Blancos will successfully defend their title.
Doubts as to whether Mbappe is the right stylistic fit for this team are certainly there. The balance hasn’t looked quite right in the opening games, with Mbappe, Vinicius, and Rodrygo being all players who would naturally like to cut in from the left onto their stronger right feet.
Things did take a step in the right direction with Mbappe scoring his first goals in La Liga in the 2-0 win over Real Betis on matchday four. However, Los Blancos already have ground to make up at the top of the table.
Barcelona – 9/4
As for Barca, they have begun with four straight wins. The first three were all by 2-1 margins and required the Catalans to dig deep at times, but things have been much more fluent since the introduction of summer signing Dani Olmo, who came on at the interval in their third game against Rayo Vallecano.
Olmo was the inspiration for an impressive comeback win in Vallecas, a bogey ground for Barca in recent years. He made his full debut in the following game and Hansi Flick's side ran riot, hammering Real Valladolid 7-0 at the Estadi Olimpic. That was a real statement of intent which suggests they should at least push Real Madrid close this season.
Their strongest XI is not short on quality, but there are potential weaknesses, with the lack of a natural option for the holding role in midfield being one.
Compared to Real Madrid, their squad depth is also considerably less impressive, and the injuries are already mounting. That suggests they may find it really difficult to maintain their league form, especially once the newly expanded Champions League kicks into life.
Atletico Madrid – 11/1
Diego Simeone’s side look like serious contenders this term. Odds of 11/1 seem long given they’ve improved both their starting XI and squad depth this summer.
There is real excitement at the Estadio Metropolitano after Atletico Madrid made four major additions in their boldest summer transfer window in several years.
Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez, Conor Gallagher, and Robin Le Normand all look like smart signings. They should freshen up an Atleti team that can still count on Antoine Griezmann's brilliance.
Best odds for Atletico Madrid to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 4/5
Athletic Club – 100/1
On paper, Athletic look the better equipped of the Basque clubs to challenge. Holding onto Euro 2024 star Nico Williams has been key and there have been no major departures, which suggests they could go one better than last season's fifth place with Girona expected to fall back this term.
However, Ernesto Valverde's side has not had a good start. Their late defeat against Atletico Madrid on Sunday, which was their first at San Mames in more than a year, leaves them eight points behind Barcelona. A title challenge looks well beyond their capabilities.
Best odds for Athletic Club to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 10/1
Real Sociedad – 100/1
Having lost Mikel Merino and Robin Le Normand, who have been two of their most important players in recent years, it’s likely to be a transitional kind of season at Real Sociedad.
Although they have a brilliant record for developing young talent, they will not be able to compete for the title this term.
Best odds for Real Sociedad to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 12/1
Villarreal – 100/1
Aside from the Basque clubs and the usual big three, Villarreal look best placed to mount a challenge at the top end of La Liga this season. They cashed in on Sorloth and goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen for big money this summer and look to have reinvested well with the additions of the likes of Ayoze Perez, Logan Costa, Sergi Cardona and Thierno Barry.
An unbeaten start has raised expectation levels, and unlike the other likely challengers, they have no European distractions which could be significant. Their defence does still look a bit shaky, though, and they'll be targeting fourth rather than first place.
Best odds for Villarreal to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 20/1
Who will win La Liga? Here’s our prediction
The La Liga outright winner odds point towards a successful Real Madrid title defence, and it’s hard to argue with that. They are the outstanding team in Spain, and you have to think that Carlo Ancelotti will find a way to make it work with Mbappe before too long.
Whether 4/7 offers value is more debatable, though, given they haven’t won back-to-back league titles in 16 years. Since Pep Guardiola was appointed Barca boss in 2008, the Catalans have won La Liga nine times to Real Madrid’s five.
With Flick at the helm, Barca do look a stronger outfit, but it's a long season and man for man, they still look weaker than their eternal rivals. So it should certainly be a closer Spanish title race this season, but Los Blancos should still win it.
As for the more niche ‘w/o Real and Barcelona' odds market, we feel as though the 10/1 best price available for Athletic Club is a tempting proposition, given that Barcelona failed to snatch Nico Williams from the Basque side during the summer window.
In December 2020 we sadly 
