Our La Liga outright winner odds and prediction analyse the chances of teams battling to displace Real Madrid as the kings of Spain.
The usual suspects – Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid – are the main title challengers, but is there anyone else who could do what Girona did last term and mix it with the traditional heavyweights? Let's take a look.
Best La Liga outright winner odds
Barcelona – 8/11
Despite a fine start to life under Hansi Flick, Barcelona were still as long as 13/8 at the beginning of October to win La Liga. That all changed with their thumping win in El Clasico, resulting in a new odds-on favourite in the outright winner market for the 2024/25 Spanish top flight heading into November.
However, Barcelona's league results following that were much less impressive and they somehow managed to turn a significant advantage at the top into a seven-point deficit, in the space of just a couple of months. Three straight home league defeats in late 2024 were particularly damaging, with Las Palmas, Leganes and Atletico Madrid all winning at the Estadi Olimpic.
Barca have looked much more convincing since returning from the festive break though. They were worthy Supercopa winners, seeing off Athletic Club and Real Madrid in dominant fashion, and have reeled off six straight victories in La Liga to regain top spot.
With Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha forming a potent front three, the Catalans have at times looked unstoppable going forwards. They've rattled in 71 league goals already, and 124 in all competitions, but they are not a flawless team. There are some doubts about goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny, as well as their ability to break down teams that defend very deep.
It has already been a title race of many twists and turns, but following their latest win over Real Sociedad, Barca are odds-on to win La Liga again. They shortened from 6/5 to 8/11 as a result of the matchday 26 action.
Real Madrid – 10/3
Who will win La Liga in 2024/25? According to the bookies, it was hard to look past Real Madrid at the beginning of the season, but their odds did lengthen significantly following humiliation in El Clasico and a slightly unconvincing start overall.
Following the postponement of their trip to Valencia in late 2024, Real Madrid were already nine points off the pace at the top, but they responded well with eight wins out of 10 in La Liga, following their 4-0 defeat to Barcelona in October.
With their great rivals capitulating during that period, Los Blancos regained their status as favourites, and they were as short as 4/9 to successfully defend their title by the end of January.
However, it is Real Madrid who have been stuttering in recent weeks. With some controversial refereeing decisions going against them, they dropped points in three league games on the spin. A shock defeat at Espanyol, was followed by a draw in the derby with Atleti, and another draw at Osasuna in a game that saw Jude Bellingham sent off in just the 39th minute.
They bounced back with a win over Girona, but Saturday's 2-1 defeat against an Isco-inspired Real Betis side has done great damage to their title prospects.
There are also fresh selection issues for Carlo Ancelotti to deal with. The Italian is already missing defensive regulars Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao to long-term injuries, and he's now set to be without midfielder Dani Ceballos, who has broken into the side over the past couple of months, until deep into April.
As a result of their latest loss, Real Madrid trail Barca by three points and will most likely end the season with the inferior head-to-head record given their heavy Clasico defeat. A successful Madrid title defence now looks much less likely and they've drifted out to 10/3 in the outright winner market.
Atletico Madrid – 7/2
This is by no means just a two-horse race though, and Atletico Madrid are bidding to spring a surprise and claim their third league title under Diego Simeone.
There was excitement at the Estadio Metropolitano after Los Rojiblancos made four major additions in their boldest summer transfer window in several years. Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez, Conor Gallagher and Robin Le Normand all looked like smart signings that would freshen up an Atleti team that can still count on Antoine Griezmann's brilliance.
However, draws in five of their opening nine games, meant that Atletico quickly fell off the pace at the top and they were priced at greater than 20/1 to win La Liga by November.
They have really hit form since then though. With the likes of Pablo Barrios and Giuliano Simeone injecting some youthful energy into the side, they recorded a club-record 15 straight victories in all competitions around the turn of the year and have lost just one of their last 26 in all competitions.
Simeone looks to have found solutions to most of his team's early season problems, and while they have dropped points in some recent games, back-to-back league wins over Valencia and Athletic Club suggest they may be capable of pushing the other two clubs all the way.
Atleti leapfrogged their neighbours into second place at the weekend and there's now very little to separate the Madrid sides in the betting markets. Los Rojiblancos are priced at 7/2 to win La Liga, and those odds will shorten significantly if they can win their upcoming showdown with Barcelona.
- Best odds for Atletico Madrid to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 1/20
Athletic Club – 500/1
On paper, Athletic Club always looked the best equipped of the other teams to challenge. Holding onto Euro 2024 star Nico Williams was key and there were no major departures, which suggested they could potentially go one better than last season's fifth place, with Girona falling back this term.
They've had a terrific campaign and were unbeaten in 16 league matches heading into their weekend trip to the Estadio Metropolitano. However, a 1-0 defeat in Madrid effectively ended any suggestion that they might be able to fight for the title, and they've drifted out to 500/1 as a result.
- Best odds for Athletic Club to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 12/1
Villarreal – 1000/1
Villarreal are also in good form and in strong contention for Champions League qualification.
They cashed in on striker Alexander Sorloth and goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen for big money in the summer and reinvested well with the additions of the likes of Ayoze Perez, Logan Costa, Sergi Cardona and Thierno Barry.
A strong start raised expectation levels, however a poor run in late 2024 and some poor defensive displays left Marcelino's side trailing the sides at the very top by a significant margin and they cannot be seen as serious title contenders.
- Best odds for Villarreal to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 25/1
Who will win La Liga? Here’s our prediction
The pre-season La Liga outright winner odds pointed towards a successful Real Madrid title defence, but Barcelona's overall improvement under Flick and a competitive Atletico Madrid suggests that we have a really exciting race on our hands, that could go to the wire.
Despite periods of European dominance, Los Blancos haven’t won back-to-back league titles in 16 years. Since Pep Guardiola was appointed Barca boss in 2008, the Catalans have won La Liga nine times to Real Madrid’s five, and the latest odds suggest that Barcelona is the most likely destination for this season's title too.
Barca have certainly had higher highs than Real Madrid this season, with Raphinha, Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal clicking better than the forward players in the Spanish capital.
Even at the age of 17, Yamal already feels like an absolutely elite-level performer. He's added more composure in front of goal to his game this term, and is already in double figures for goals and assists in all competitions. Meanwhile, Raphinha has arguably been the best player in Spain, in a major transformation of his fortunes.
Barca's dip in form in late 2024 did coincide with an injury for Yamal, with four of their five league defeats coming when the teenager wasn't a starter, while they've won 18 out of 21 with the winger. They look to be getting back to their best now, and the Catalans still look good at 8/11 to win La Liga.
While Real Madrid are over the worst of their injury crisis, with Antonio Rudiger fit again and youngster Raul Asencio stepping in and doing well in central defence, a lack of depth in some key positions could still be an issue for Ancelotti, particularly if they go deep in the Champions League again.
Atletico Madrid cannot be discounted and they do have arguably the deepest squad in Spain. Their overall form has dipped slightly though, and they are often scraping wins rather than blowing teams away. They aren't quite as attractive at 7/2, as was the case several weeks ago when they were looking more impressive and available at longer odds.
As for the more niche ‘w/o Real and Barcelona' odds market, it's hard to see anyone challenging Atleti. Diego Simeone's side have finished above the other 17 teams in the division in 11 of the last 12 seasons and they are available at 1/20 to do likewise this term.
Mark is a freelance football writer based in Madrid. He has been covering Spanish and European football for more than 10 years. He regularly attends matches in La Liga and covers the Spanish top flight for MFT.
