Our La Liga outright winner odds and prediction analyse the chances of teams battling to displace Real Madrid as the kings of Spain.
The usual suspects – Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid – are expected to be the main title challengers, but is there anyone else who could do what Girona did last term and mix it with the traditional heavyweights? Let's take a look.
Best La Liga outright winner odds
Real Madrid – 5/6
Who will win La Liga in 2024/25? According to the bookies, it was hard to look past Real Madrid at the beginning of the season, but their odds did lengthen following humiliation in El Clasico and a slightly unconvincing start overall.
They are still clearly missing the controlling influence of Toni Kroos in midfield, while doubts as to whether new signing Kylian Mbappe is the right stylistic fit for this team remain. The balance hasn’t looked quite right in many games, with Mbappe, Vinicius and Jude Bellingham all being players who would naturally like to drift to the left, before cutting in onto their stronger right feet.
Following the postponement of their trip to Valencia, Real Madrid were nine points off the pace at the top, but they have responded well with six wins out of eight in La Liga since their 4-0 defeat to Barcelona in October.
That's despite a defensive injury crisis that means they'll most likely be without regulars Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal for the remainder of the campaign. They have looked vulnerable at the back as a result against the stronger sides, and conceded five against Barca in the Supercopa last weekend. While they are usually reluctant January spenders, Real Madrid may seek to bolster their defence this month.
Carlo Ancelotti will at least be encouraged by some positive developments in the final third, with Bellingham really hitting form in recent weeks. At the midway point, his side remain the 5/6 favourites to win La Liga.
Barcelona – 3/1
Despite a fine start to life under Hansi Flick, Barcelona were still as long as 13/8 at the beginning of October to win La Liga. That all changed with their thumping win in El Clasico resulting in a new odds-on favourite in the outright winner market for the 2024/25 Spanish top flight heading into November.
Everything was looking bright for Hansi Flick and his side at that point. Youngsters such as Marc Casado, Pau Cubarsi and Lamine Yamal were really shining, while veteran striker Robert Lewandowski has been prolific with 26 goals in 27 matches in all competitions so far this term.
However, Barcelona's recent league performances have been much less impressive and they've somehow managed to turn a significant advantage at the top into a six point deficit, in the space of just a couple of months.
Three straight home league defeats have been particularly damaging, with Las Palmas, Leganes and Atletico Madrid all winning at the Estadi Olimpic. That kind of form suggests a return to Camp Nou, scheduled for early 2025, cannot come soon enough.
Barca have looked much more convincing since returning from the festive break though. They were worthy Supercopa winners last week, seeing off Athletic Club and Real Madrid in dominant fashion.
Flick will be hoping his refreshed squad can now go another winning run in La Liga, but with ground to make up, they've drifted to 3/1 in the outright winner market.
Atletico Madrid – 7/2
There was excitement at the Estadio Metropolitano after Atletico Madrid made four major additions in their boldest transfer window in several years. Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez, Conor Gallagher and Robin Le Normand all looked like smart signings that would freshen up an Atleti team that can still count on Antoine Griezmann's brilliance.
However, draws in five of their opening nine games, meant that Atletico quickly fell off the pace at the top. A first defeat at Real Betis at the end of October and some really poor Champions League displays added to the sense that it was unlikely to be their year, with Los Rojiblancos priced at greater than 20/1 to win La Liga in November.
They have really hit form in recent weeks though. With the likes of Pablo Barrios and Giuliano Simeone injecting some youthful energy into the side, they've recorded a club record 14 straight victories in all competitions.
Diego Simeone looks to have found solutions to his team's early season problems, and while they were fortunate to win in Barcelona, the result really catapulted them firmly into a title race that they now lead by a point.
As a result, Atleti's odds have continued to shorten, and they have been cut to 7/2 to win the Spanish top flight.
- Best odds for Atletico Madrid to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 1/14
Athletic Club – 300/1
On paper, Athletic look the best equipped of the other clubs to challenge. Holding onto Euro 2024 star Nico Williams has been key and there have been no major departures, which suggested they could potentially go one better than last season's fifth place, with Girona falling back this term.
With five wins from their last six in La Liga, Athletic are now only two points behind Barcelona, although they do have eight to make up on leaders Atletico Madrid.
Ernesto Valverde's side will also be placing a big emphasis on the Europa League, with the final in their own stadium. That could have a knock-on effect on their domestic form as the season wears on, and it's hard to see them sustaining a genuine title challenge, despite an excellent home record.
They'll most likely end up fighting with Villarreal, and potentially Basque rivals Real Sociedad, for fourth place and entry into next season's Champions League.
- Best odds for Athletic Club to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 11/1
Villarreal – 1000/1
Aside from the usual big three, Villarreal looked well placed to mount a challenge at the top end of La Liga this season. They cashed in on striker Alexander Sorloth and goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen for big money and look to have reinvested well with the additions of the likes of Ayoze Perez, Logan Costa, Sergi Cardona and Thierno Barry.
A strong start raised expectation levels, and unlike the other likely challengers, they have no European or domestic cup distractions which should be a major advantage.
However, their defence does still look shaky and with only one win in their last seven in La Liga, Marcelino's side cannot be viewed as serious title contenders.
- Best odds for Villarreal to win La Liga without Real Madrid or Barcelona: 66/1
Who will win La Liga? Here’s our prediction
The pre-season La Liga outright winner odds pointed towards a successful Real Madrid title defence, but Barcelona's strong early season form and an improving Atletico Madrid suggests we could have a really exciting race on our hands.
Despite periods of European dominance, Los Blancos haven’t won back-to-back league titles in 16 years. Since Pep Guardiola was appointed Barca boss in 2008, the Catalans have won La Liga nine times to Real Madrid’s five.
Barcelona have certainly had higher highs than Real Madrid this season, with Raphinha, Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal clicking better than the forward players in the Spanish capital.
Even at the age of 17, Yamal already feels like an absolutely elite level performer. He's added more composure in front of goal to his game this term, with eight goals and 11 assists already in all competitions, while Raphinha has arguably been the best player in Spain in a major transformation in his fortunes.
Barca's dip in form did coincide with an injury for Yamal, with four of their five league defeats coming when the teenager wasn't a starter, while they've won 12 out of 14 with the winger.
They do need to immediately hit the ground running again in La Liga, but the quality of their football has been very high at times, and with Yamal fit again, they look capable of bouncing back from this significant wobble. The Catalans look good at 3/1 to be crowned Spanish champions.
It's hard to fancy Real Madrid at a price of 5/6 given their obvious defensive flaws, particularly at right-back. Atletico Madrid cannot be discounted and they have arguably the deepest squad in Spain, but they are scraping wins, rather than blowing teams away. They have some tougher matches on the horizon in both the league and Europe which may spark a slight reversal in their fortunes.
As for the more niche ‘w/o Real and Barcelona' odds market, it's hard to see anyone challenging Atleti. Diego Simeone's side have finished above the other 17 teams in the division in 11 of the last 12 seasons and they have been slashed to 1/14 to do likewise this term.
In December 2020 we sadly 
