SOMETIMES there are easier bets to take on but real (potential) value usually comes from taking a calculated risk and that's my steer for tonight's selections – hopefully fortune favours the brave…
FJÖLNIR VS. KEFLAVÍK (8.15pm)
Prices are as short as 4/11 for Fjolnir here and whilst I understand how those prices have been generated on recent standings and form, tjere's a significant history between these two that goes back a long way.
Yes, Fjolnir currently sit top but Keflavik aren't too far behind with a gap of just 5 points – more notably, Fjolnir have had a lot of wins but very fre have been convincing scorelines…I sense their old Urvalsdeild foes may run them a little tighter than those pesky bookmakers reckon!
I've no idea how many of these match-ups I've followed over the years but I do know even from memory that they have nearly all been close affairs.
H2H-wise, there have been 11 games over an 11 year period with nearly all of these being played out in the top-flight, of those 11 games: 55% ended in a stalemate and 82% would have seen Keflavik win with a goal headstart!
Like I said, there is probably easier bets to take on this evening but sometimes it pays to stick your neck out…if it comes off then it's a chance to extend a big middle finger towards the bookmakers:
- Keflavik +1 h/cap
- (9/5, paddypower) NAP
- (15/4, bet365) NB