Based on how Il Est Francais was ridden, they weren't trying on him as Ffos Las.
The horse is all about leading and jumping with plenty of enthusiasm and making his opposition tap out by not being able to go the gallop. Harry Skelton did nothing as expected and anchored him in last position. He had the horse 15 lengths off the lead for the entirety of the race, and never put him in. There wasn't much of a drift, so that dampens my thought on them not trying a little, but that type of ride stunk of being a pipe opener.
Lillie Margot ran a perfectly solid enough race at Nottingham. She clearly enjoys that track, but bumped into a couple on this day. Based on that run, I think they need to reach for some version of headgear and maybe a drop to seven furlongs; that will massively help.
Polly The Sniper 7/1 (EW, 2pl) – Brighton 2.05
I think it's fairly obvious the reason why My Boo Boo is the favourite and Chapel Down is second in the market, but neither has concrete form. If I had a gun to my head, I'd rather side with Chapel Down of the two, but at the prices, I thought Polly The Sniper had a much better chance than being a 7/1 shot.
Chapel Down was third on his debut as a 100/1 shot. The form isn't amazing; there has been a winner that has come out of that race since, but there have also been six unplaced efforts, which makes me believe it's not worth a lot.
Polly The Sniper returns to a maiden race after finishing second in a nursery last time out, and I like the angle of her being a filly and getting weight from every horse in the race. She has an official rating of 64, so if she were to run to form, the top three in the market would have to run to a mark of 72, which I struggle to see, even considering My Boo Boo is 73 rated.
Polly The Sniper has improved ever so slightly on every turf run so far. Her two worst efforts have been on the AW, but her RPRs of turf read 57, 60 and 61. The latest run at Bath saw her short for room at points when she was trying to make her challenge, but she did stay on towards the finish. She goes back up to six furlongs, which is half a furlong more than her last two turf runs, and I think that'll suit.
It's only a two-place race, but I think it would be the smart idea to opt for that.
GambleAware