Roma are preparing for their first home match in the Champions League since 2019, and what better opponent than their former manager Jose Mourinho and his Real Madrid?
The Wolves remain unbeaten in all competitions since the start of the season, having deservedly topped Serie A until before the latest round. Yet at the same time, they have little to boast about in the last month, having drawn three of their last four matches.
At the weekend, they had a tough match against Como, which could easily be described as their weakest performance of the season so far. This is certainly a cause for concern, especially when you think about their recent poor form in Europe. Roma lost three of their last five home matches in UEFA competitions.
Jose Mourinho will return to Stadio Olimpico and is likely to be greeted with applause, having led Roma to their first European trophy when they won the UEFA Conference League in 2021–22.
Real Madrid undoubtedly have the stronger squad and are the expected favourites, but their away form since the start of the season has been far from impressive. For instance, the two defeats in four La Liga away fixtures are the reason Los Blancos are lagging behind in the title race.
Nevertheless, Real Madrid began their Champions League campaign with a win over Inter Milan, which should provide sufficient motivation.
How the bookies view it: Real Madrid to conquer Rome
As expected, Real Madrid are the clear favourites according to the bookmakers, even though AS Roma are in their best form in years.
At the moment, you can back Roma at 11/4, a draw at 3/1 or Real Madrid at around 17/20.
Recent head-to-head: Los Blancos won the last four
This is a classic clash from the rich history of the Champions League, with this set to be the 13th time that Roma and Real Madrid have met in the competition.
As you might expect, Los Blancos have a commanding lead in the head-to-head record, with eight wins to Roma’s three (D1).
What must be more worrying for the Wolves is the fact that Real Madrid have won 19 of their last 20 matches against Italian sides in the UCL.
Players to watch: No one comes close to Mbappe in the UCL
Cristiano Ronaldo is the only player to have scored more goals in a single Champions League season than Kylian Mbappe. Last year, he scored a total of 15 in 11 matches, and this season he has already found the net in the opening match against Inter Milan.
In addition, we can highlight Federico Valverde, who has certainly come into his own over the past year and has four goals and four assists in his last nine matches in the competition. He is clearly enjoying himself in the UCL and could be worth a look as a higher-odds option.
Probable line-ups
AS Roma: Gollini, Hermoso, Ndicka, Mancini, Wesley Franca, Kone, de Roon, Molina, Pellegrini, Dybala, Malen
Real Madrid: Courtois, Cucurella, Huijsen, Konate, Dumfries, Valverde, Tchouameni, Vinicius Jr., Bellingham, Guler, Mbappe
Anything else catch the eye?
Real Madrid have not conceded a single goal in their last four Champions League matches against Roma. However, at the moment, we certainly cannot say they are playing phenomenally well in defence.
So far this season, they’ve kept just two clean sheets in nine matches, and none away from home. The Wolves look quite decent in attack compared to previous seasons, having scored two or more goals in five of their seven matches so far this season.
They don’t look ready to win to me, but we can certainly expect some action from both teams.
Furthermore, I reckon we’ll definitely see quite a few cards in this match. Real Madrid, under Jose Mourinho, play a much more physical style of football and pick up at least a few cards in almost every match. They also saw red in their last two matches.
Over 4.5 cards seems a bit risky for a pre-match bet, but over 1.5 for Real Madrid appeals to me as an option.
Roma vs Real Madrid Betting Tips & Predictions
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