Both fancies on Thursday were backed at shorter prices than when advised, but both missed the places.
Cindy Lou Who had the position to be competitive, but she didn't show a turn of foot when required. I wouldn't say she wilted inside the final furlong, so the trip definitely wasn't the reason for not being placed.
Miss Tonnerre also lacked gears, but I think she was mightily unlucky not to be placed. She was checked in running at a vital moment, and she lost a fair chunk of momentum, making it near impossible to go again and place.
Woven 7/2 – Haydock 3.15
It's going to be a tough ask for Woven off a heavy weight of 9st 11lbs on soft ground, but there are reasons to believe he can cope.
I've tipped up quite a lot of old horses on the flat over the last week or two, and Woven is another. He is a ten-year-old, but he's still showing encouraging signs that he can still mix it at a decent handicapping level.
He is a course and distance winner, and has already shown a very good liking for testing surfaces. Haydock will receive a few more millimetres of rain, which could potentially turn the ground to heavy, so having a horse that handles those conditions is a must. He didn't run a bad race last time out, but having the nine next to his name makes it look worse than it is. If you can look past that and concentrate on his form from York the time before, where he finished second of 21, he's going to have a huge chance.
It's a shame that the price has collapsed on him, as he is now a much shorter price, but that's the way things go when you don't tip horses up the minute the markets open.
Thickthorn Tom 13/8 – Bangor-on-Dee 2.50
The price is slightly on the drift for Thickthorn Tom, which is a little surprising, as I think he has the best chance of winning this race.
He's not a big price, but I think in a small field like this, 13/8 is definitely considered as value. Thickthorn Tom is a horse on the up and is still progressing nicely over fences. Dan Skelton does extremely well with horses like Thickthorn Tom, especially during the summer months/early jumps season, and there's no reason to believe his progression has stopped.
He landed the hat-trick in good style last time out, and is running with a 7lb penalty, which means he is still ahead of his reassessed mark, which comes into play on a later date. This is a longer trip, which is probably why he is priced the way he is, but I struggle to see many negatives attached to this horse's chances of winning.
GambleAware