Fair to say, the trip up to Scotland was not worth the time on Glittering Surf.
It was always a shot in the dark backing Glittering Surf, but with the small sample size of runners-to-winners in Scotland, I thought it was worth a try, especially with a wind op happening since her last run.
God Of War was outpaced in his race and did run on, but he was running on extremely slowly. It was a race for four places, but with three non-runners, it reduced it back to the usual three places.
Hickory Lad 7/4 – Ayr 2.30
Based on the form shown by all of the horses, this is Hickory Lad's race to lose.
You could say that Mussab has a chance on the back of his third at Royal Ascot in the Norfolk, but in hindsight, that race wasn't great. The winner looked impressive, and I believed the hype when backing him next time out. He was comfortably beaten in France, and the runner-up in Norfolk was a 150/1 shot, who has done little since. To add to this, his pedigree and form on good to soft at York make it look like he prefers a quick surface.
Hickory Lad has been solid all season long. He won a good race at Epsom earlier in the season, and then ran well in a Group 2 at Newmarket, before flopping a little at Goodwood and then finishing third in a Listed race at York.
Hickory Lad looks more assured on today's ground, and 15/8 doesn't look a terrible price.
Luna A Inbhis Nis 9/2 – Ayr 3.05
Another favourite I did like the look of on Friday is Beautiful Diamond. She won this race by a couple of lengths last year, and if she puts in a repeat performance to that level, she could be tough to beat, but I like the second favourite.
There are interesting runners in this field, with the likes of Luna A Inbhir Nis and Heavenly Heather. The latter has had a cracking season, climbing from Class 5 handicaps to Class 1 races, and running well in them too. The former ran in this race last year and put in her best RPR in defeat, and she didn't run badly at all considering she was rated 89 and was massively inferior.
This season, Luna A Inbhir Nis has gotten better without actually winning a race. Her RPRs and performances in Class 1 races have been very good, albeit the better runs have been on good or quicker. She was last seen at Sandown in a Group 3, finishing second to Rumstar, losing by a length. That was a career best for the four-year-old filly.
If she is in the same type of form that she was at Sandown after a couple of months away, she is a big player.
Francisco's Piece 11/1 (EW, 6pl) – Ayr 3.40
My biggest price runner of the day comes in the Ayr Bronze Cup, and I am very happy that Adrian Keatley has sent Francisco's Piece for this race.
This horse loves testing ground, so the more rain that falls, the better his chance of winning is. He was a tip on the page earlier in the season when he ran at Carlisle in June. The rain didn't fall as much as I anticipated that day, so his effort was still good enough to finish in the middle of the pack. Since then, he has won on good and then finished a good second on soft at Beverley to an in-form horse who also loves soft ground.
His form as a juvenile on soft ground means he is well-handicapped off his current rating. Juvenile form doesn't always work out, so his handicap mark at that time might have been inflated, but he did finish second on soft in a Listed race, and now he is 13lbs lower. At a solid each-way price, he's worth a shot.
GambleAware