I was a bit disappointed with the run of Aalto.
I really thought off his handicap mark that he would be tough to beat. Dark Tornado beat me with a tipped-up horse last year at decent odds, and he's gone and done it again. He pulled away towards the end, so I can't really complain about the result.
As for the Newcastle pair, it looked like they were positioned in the wrong place.
I'm not sure if the heat has resulted in the track riding the way it is, as it seemed impossible to make up ground from the rear. Dosman was in the last two/three, and never looked like he was going to challenge. Per Contra had a good draw to get a prominent seat, but Dave Allan fancied holding him up in last place. I saw the ride get a lot of stick on social media, but I'm not sure it was warranted. The money was down on him, and I think he struggled to pick up.
Kylian 15/2 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Newcastle 7.28
Backing out of form horses always comes with risks attached. However, when a horse returns to the all-weather from the turf, I think you can get away with it. Based on Kylian's strike rate on the all-weather, he has to be more comfortable on this surface than racing on grass.
He has recorded four wins from six runs on the all-weather, which is much better than his 2/24 on turf. Sometimes, the handicapper gives horses with the profile of Kylian a different mark for AW and turf. I'm not sure why they haven't taken this approach on him, but it's my gain if he can bounce back to form.
He is currently rated 95, which gives him a super chance of getting involved. He won off higher mark in 2024, and at the start of 2025. He didn't get a chance to run on the AW again until the start of this year, which was a solid effort in fifth. That day, he was making his return from 190+ days away from the track, and was off a mark of 102. Running off a 7lb lower mark should allow him to be competitive, and I thought he was very good EW play.
I had this typed up a fair few hours before it got posted, and his price has collapsed to nearly half the price I saw him at. At 15/2 and with four places on offer, he's probably at the price he deserves to be at. I'd like to be more confident in him, but with how Newcastle was riding on Thursday, that has resulted in a minimum stake EW bet.
GambleAware