EVERYONE wants to see Novak Djokovic slug it out with Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final and the bookies can’t see either of them slipping up in today’s semi-finals.
Defending champion Djokovic is going for a fifth crown in a row and is Bet365’s hot 1/6 favourite to see of Jannik Sinner this afternoon.
The young Italian came close to shocking Djokovic in last year’s quarter-finals, racing into a 2-0 lead before eventually losing in five sets.
Sinner has been pretty impressive again, dropping just two sets on his way to the semis, so backing him at +5.5 in the games handicap could pay off (11/10, Paddy Power).
Betting on the score being 3-3 after six games paid off yesterday in Ons Jabeur’s thrilling semi-final win over Arnya Sabalenka.
The same bet pays 5/4 at BoyleSports today and that could be worth a punt once more.
Young gun Alcaraz has been getting better with every game and beat Holger Rune in straight sets in the last eight.
He now faces Daniil Medvedev, who needed five sets to get past crowd favourite Christopher Eubanks in his quarter-final.
The Russian has plenty of fighting spirit but he’s a 21/10 outsider (William Hill) today while Alcaraz’s best price is just 2/5 (Unibet).
This could be a tight one and I’m going for a four-set match at 8/5 with Bet365.
It’s a busy night of women’s international football as teams gear up for the World Cup.
Co-hosts Australia have a friendly with France and it will be interesting to see what kind of shape the Socceroos are in.
Paddy Power make them 5/2 outsiders with the French favourites at evens (Betway).
BTTS is just 8/13 (William Hill) but over 1.5 first-half goals is better at 6/4 (Paddy Power).
Super Singles
- Score 3-3 after six games in Djokovic v Sinner (5/4, BoyleSports).
- Over 1.5 first-half goals Australia v France.
Match Previews & Tips
- Sat 15:00 Elgin City vs Motherwell
- Sat 15:00 The Spartans vs Dundee United
Racing Tips
For Day 2 of the July Cup Meeting at Newmarket, Rizzel has picked out three fancies with two priced up as EW selections and the other being 9/2
Golf Betting Tips
The caddy also makes a return this week with his best bets from the Scottish Open.
In December 2020 we sadly 
🇫🇮 MP Mikkeli v JaPS 🇫🇮
🇮🇸 Fram v Breidablik 🇮🇸
▪️Over 2.5 Match Goals Double (1.17/1, william hill)
🇦🇷 Godoy Cruz v Defensa Y Justicia
▪️Over 2.5 Match Goals (5/4, ladbrokes)
After a great day yesterday I’m hoping this can continue for today’s men’s semi final matches.
Below are my thoughts and plays on the first match.
Sinner – Djokovic
A repeat of last years Wimbledon quarter final in which Sinner lead the match 2 sets to 0 before Djokovic took firm control of the match, winning the last 3 sets comfortably. So far this tournament Sinner has been playing extremely well but has yet to face any real opposition with his highest ranked win against world number 79 Quentin Halys. This is obviously going to be a huge step up from anyone he has faced so far. Djokovic, who has not lost on centre court at Wimbledon for over 10 years, faced his toughest match of the tournament against Hurkacz where he could easily have lost that match in straight sets had Hurkacz held on to his leads in the opening two set tie breaks. If Sinner is going to test Djokovic in the same way he will need to serve incredibly well. However, an issue he will need to overcome is his 1st serve percentage. So far he is averaging 57% but only once out of his 5 matches to date as he served higher then 60% which was his opening match (69%). Compare that to Djokovic who is averaging 65.8% and has yet to serve lower than 62% in any match. If Sinner again serves in the low 50’s then this will allow Djokovic plenty of looks at his second serve and will more than likely enable him to dictate play with his returns. If Sinner is to have a chance in this match he will need to serve over 60% and likely closer to 70% 1st serves. Reason for this is that his average 1st serve points won in his 5 matches to date is 84.4%. After last years comeback win for Djokovic I suspect he will be switched on and will know the challenge he faces. Plus with his impressive serving so far this tournament and the likelihood that Sinner will serve a 1st serve percentage lower than 60% I strongly fancy Djokovic to come through this match. With the possible low 1st serve percentage from Sinner this will put huge pressure on his second serve especially when facing the greatest returner in history. So far Sinner is averaging 2.4 doubles per match but the return skills of his opposition have been incredibly poor in comparison to Novak. In last years match he hit 7 doubles and in the only other head to head match committed 3 when losing in 2 easy sets. Sinner to hit at least 3 double faults in this match is therefore the play as well.
Under 37.5 games 2 units 1.87 Unibet
Sinner Over 2.5 Double Faults 3 units 1.83 Bet365
Also a small play on Sinner hitting 5 or more double faults.
Sinner 5+ Double Faults 0.5 units 4.33 Bet365
Bet365 have now shortened the over 2.5 double faults for Sinner down to 1.66. You can still get 1.83 at Boylesports though under the Invent a Bet. Sinner to have 3 or more double faults.
You can also still get over 2.5 double faults for Sinner 1.83 with Parimatch.
What are your thoughts on over 4.5 double faults in the match for 1.70 with Unibet?
Is Djokovic likely to get a couple, or is he more disciplined?
It should come in but not a massive fan of the 1.7 odds. Djokovic has also been serving well so far. He does occasionally have days were he commits a few but they are very rare.
Thanks MJT 👍
Couple tonight from Ireland ,
Both Irish premiership games o2.5 mg’s 4/1 ,
Athlone vs Galway 🇮🇪 over 3.5 mg’s 13/10 ,
Goodluck……….
Unfortunate like me today,post or not to post imo makes no difference,for me the horrible buggers(the bookies)get very little out of me now whether I can afford it or not(which I can)as I chosse not too👍
Yesterday’s bet lost
Today’s bet
Bray v Wexford
Both teams to score + Over 2.5 goals
William hill. Evens
NAP
finally a double fault
come on sinner play crap
Friendly
Middlesbrough win&over 2.5mgl
13/10@coral👍
Have the kids playing👎,at least highlights why I personally bet little and less often than I did before😆
Alcaraz – Medvedev
This should be a good match to watch. Alcaraz comfortably beat Medvedev earlier this year 6-3 6-2 in the Indian Wells final but that court plays very slow and did not really suit Medvedev. The only other previous meeting happened at Wimbledon in 2021 with Medvedev winning 6-4 6-1 6-2. Alcaraz has obviously improved massively since then so that result has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Similar to the first match being played today, Medvedev will have to serve very well in this match due to the excellent return skills of Alcaraz. Something that could come in to play is that it would appear that the roof is going to be closed due to the weather. Although Alcaraz is the favourite in this match I do feel that this does help balance it out a little more. With the roof closed the ball bounce gets lower which will certainly help Medvedev and he has the better serve. Alcaraz will look to be aggressive and will serve and volley and play plenty of drop shots like he did noticeably in his win at Indian Wells. In his previous match Alcaraz did improve on serve as the match went on but in the 1st set there were a number of openings for Rune who had a break point in the opening game and also 0-30 on two occasions at 4-4 and 5-5. These situations are where Medvedev will have to take advantage if he is to win. It’s a difficult one to call but I have a sense that as long as Medvedev serves well this could be closer than people think. And if Medvedev can get to the later stages of sets or tie breaks who knows what could happen, especially as Alcaraz has also dropped sets against fellow big hitters in Jarry and Berrettini. So I am leaning towards the over 39.5 games which pays 2.0 at William Hill. However, an angle I would rather focus on is the aces market as these could easily come in with a 3 set match. With the roof being closed this will certainly help the Medvedev serve. He has been serving better as the tournament has gone on and if he get’s into a rhythm Alcaraz will likely find it difficult to break. With the potential of some close sets or a long match I like the aces in this match.
Over 15.5 aces 3 units 1.95 Unibet
Medvedev to serve 10 aces or more 3 units 1.83 Boylesports
Medvedev 15+ aces 1 unit 3.75 Bet365
Shocking performance so far from Medvedev. For some unknown reason he is playing the exact same tactics from his humbling defeat at Indian Wells. Standing way back on the Alcaraz serve and just allowing him to hit volleys and drop shots. No idea why he didn’t change it up after the 1st set. Let’s see if he can do anything different in the 3rd, otherwise these will all unfortunately be losers.
over 2.5 faults up
cheers MJT
Evening gents,
Iceland for me tonight and a game that gas real potential for goals…
FRAM VS. BREIDABLIK (9.15pm)
OVER 3.5 GOALS
(11/10, bet365) NAP ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
OVER 4.5 GOALS
(5/2, bet365) NB ⭐️⭐️⭐️
OVER 5.5 GOALS
(5/1, bet365) LONGSHOT ⭐️
Best of luck with all bets tonight 👍
Double down early with the 🇫🇮 game ending a goal short 👎
LONGSHOT
———————
Scotland Women
V
Northern Ireland Women
19:35
Women’s International Friendlies
match odds of 1-8 Scotland say it all.
The Irish girls did qualify for last year’s euros though and beat Italy who are decent a couple of games back.
Northern Ireland women to score 11-8 SKYBET………..
It’s live on BBC Scotland apparently.
Finished 3-0
Ireland had a good few chances, hit the bar etc but no consolation goal.
Great start to the day ends in a whimper. I really was expecting a much better performance from Medvedev. Even if he lost in 3 sets I at least thought one or two of the sets would be competitive. His serving was very poor and his tactics were completely baffling. For a brief moment in the 3rd set I thought he may have at least managed to get to a 5-5 or a tie break which may have given some of the selections a chance.
Apologies if anyone followed on the second match.
Sinner – Djokovic Under 37.5 games 2 units 1.87 Unibet ✅
Sinner Over 2.5 Double Faults 3 units 1.83 Bet365 ✅
Sinner 5+ Double Faults 0.5 units 4.33 Bet365 ❌
Alcaraz – Medvedev Over 15.5 aces 3 units 1.95 Unibet ❌
Medvedev to serve 10 aces or more 3 units 1.83 Boylesports ❌
Medvedev 15+ aces 1 unit 3.75 Bet365 ❌
Mens Semi Finals recap:
Bet placed: 6
Won: 2 ✅
Lost: 4 ❌
Stakes: 12.5 units
Returns: 9.23 units
Profit/Loss: -3.27 units
ROI: -26.2%
Wimbledon record after Mens Semi Finals:
Bets Placed: 78
Wins: 43 ✅
Loss: 35 ❌
Stakes: 129 units
Returns: 152.77 units
Profit/Loss: +23.77 units
ROI: 18.43%
Will be back tomorrow with my plays for the Ladies Final and fingers crossed can end the last 2 days back in profit again.
Well done all winners.
Watched a wheelchair doubles yesterday, most entertaining game I’ve seen at this year’s championship.
Hewett and Reid won, 1st set was great tennis.
Never watched wheelchair tennis before but will watch their final.
They’ve won it 4 times before and play a Japanese pair in the final.
Nooo…. just no EP….🙈🙈🙈