Notts County vs Forest Green Rovers
County sit 2nd after an impressive return to the EFL with W5-D2-L1 with their lonely defeating coming in their opening fixture and a 5-1 thumping by Sutton. Since then, it’s been very good and now it’s three home wins on the spin beating Accrington, Tranmere and Grimsby. The hosts have been good value for the points on the table sitting 4th on xPTS and 5th on xG ratio. At home they sit in the top six for much of the attacking metrics, but defensively there is still work to be done, sitting 20th for shots on target conceded and shots on target in the box.
If we look at the away record of FGR in isolation it looks impressive with W2-D1-L0, but they have played Harrogate who are 5th from bottom Sutton who are bottom with just 3 points and Wimbledon who are currently 11th. The game with Wimbledon ended 1-1, but the Wombled generated 3.01 xG that game whilst FGR managed just 0.9, losing the shot count 20-8.
County should have too much for Rovers and I am going to back them to win and score at least twice as they have done in every home match so far and in 6 of their 8 matches this season.
However, the best odds available on this bet is just over 4/6 but we can add over 29.5 match booking points to boost this to 4/5. Stockbridge is the ref and so far, this season he has averaged 56.25 booking points across this four EFL games, giving both sides a card in all four and each 2+ cards in 75%, whilst 40 match booking points has also landed in all 4 fixtures. County have seen at least 30 booking points in all their home games whilst Rovers have seen the same selection land in all their away games.
Notts County win, over 1.5 goals and 29.5 match booking points. 4/5 with William Hill
Mansfield vs Barrow
Two sides that on the face of it look like they are both having a good season. The hosts have gone W3-D5-L0, and Barrow are W3-D3-L1, but I have Mansfield 3rd on xPTS and Barrow 23rd.
Barrow have beaten Harrogate who sit 20th, Sutton 24th and Tranmere 23rd, whilst draws have come against Salford 19th, Newport 12th and Wrexham who are currently 4th, The Wrexham game was at home but also the Welsh side generated 2.4 xG whilst Barrow had 0.26 xG losing the shot count 11 vs 5 and SOT count 4 vs 2.
Attacking wise it’s been desperate for Barrow, especially on the road. Just 0.62 xG, 21st shots taken, 20th for shots on target taken and 18th for shots on target in the box and at the other end they have now conceded 44 5 shots and 34 shots inside the box in their last four games.
The host have a decent home record with W2-D1-L0, and I have them 7th on home xPTS and the best hoe xG ratio with a massive 1.93 xG plus they sit in the top two for all the attacking metrics at home.
Mansfield to win is just 8/13 but we can back them on the Asian handicap at -0.75, meaning that we spilt our stake between a win and -1AH. Any win for the hosts and we will make profit and we need them to win by two goals for a full pay out.
Mansfield -0.75AH at 5/6 with Bet365
Ipswich vs Blackburn
Ipswich have taken to Championship well and now sit joint 2nd level on points with Leicester and are now one of only three teams that have scored in every championship game this season. Whilst Ipswich have only scored twice in their last two games, they have had 23 shots and 10 shots on target when facing Sheff Wednesday and Southampton both on the road. The Tractor Boys sit 5th on xPTS, 4th on xG ratio and 1st in shots on target ratio. At Portman Road they have scored at least two goals in each of their home games this season and it’s now just two defeats at home in their last 26 Championship and League One fixtures scoring an average of 2.62 goals per game. The last time they didn’t find the next at least twice at Portman Road was back in January when they drew 101 with Plymouth.
Blackburn have already conceded three at Plymouth and twice at Rotherham, although they did beat Watford 1-0. Watford were wasteful that day hitting 23 shots to Blackburn’s 5. If Blackburn allows Ipswich 23 shots, they will find the net easily. Rovers will have chances on Saturday. Ipswich have allowed opposition to create opportunities with Leeds scoring 4 and Cardiff twice and Rovers have posted some good attacking metrics on the road with the highest xG of any team away from home this season with 2.1 and 5th for shots, 7th for SOT and 1st for touches in the opposition box. Defensively it’s not so great with an average of 17.7 shots conceded at 5.0 shots on target against.
The referee on Saturday is Keith Stroud who loves a card with an average of 5.5 cards per game this season. He has given both sides a card in all 5 of hos fixtures and both Ipswich and Blackburn have been carded in every game this season with the tractor boys collecting an average of 3.3 cards at home this season. If we add Ipswich to score at least twice and both sides to be carded and Conor Chaplin to have at least two shots, we get 6/5 with Bet365. Chaplin so far this season has had shots of 2,8,7,3,6,4 and 3. At home it’s been 8,3 and 6.
Ipswich to score over 1 goal, Chaplin over 1.5 shots and both sides to receive a card. 6/5 with Bet365
