In the Bolton versus Exeter City matchup, Bolton’s impressive five-game winning streak and solid home record contrast sharply with Exeter’s struggle for goals, positioning the Wanderers as strong contenders for automatic promotion. Meanwhile, in the Huddersfield versus Southampton clash, Southampton's ascendancy to the 4th spot, courtesy of their exceptional recent form, starkly contrasts with Huddersfield's ongoing struggles, suggesting a potential dominant win for the visitors.
Bolton vs Exeter City
Bolton are flying with five wins on the bounce and a home record that reads W6-D1-L2. The Wanderers sit just a single point behind league leaders Portsmouth and level on points with Oxford in 2nd.
Normally I would be a little concerned about backing Bolton as their underlying process, especially at home, hasn’t been that good despite the points haul. 22nd for goals conceded, 21st for shots conceded and 18th for shots in the box against isn’t a great record for a side that’s looking at automatic promotion, but they find a way to win and if there was ever a good team to play at home, its currently Exeter who struggle for goals. The hosts haven’t conceded in their last three league games and last five in all competitions.
Exeter have struggled this season sitting just outside the relegation zone by a single point. Over the last eight games they have failed to win, and no side has collected fewer points than them with just one point won scoring just twice. Their overall xPTS isn’t that bad but it’s their xGA on the road is the worst in the division and no side has conceded more shots on target when playing away from home.
W5-D2-L9 this season and on the road, they are W3-D0-L5 scoring just seven goals. Their three victories on the road were all before mid-September at Burton, Wycombe and Carlisle but have now lost their last four away days conceding 12 and scoring only once.
With the hosts brimming with confidence, I am happy to get behind them to win this match, but the odds have completely gone for this game now, so I am happy to back them to win and for there to be under 5 goals in the game. Bolton have only seen one home game have five or more goals whilst Exeter lost 4-1 at Charlton for their only away game to have five or more. With Exeter being so poor in front of goal we might need Bolton to score five for this bet to lose.
- Bolton win and under 4.5 goals at 4/5 with Skybet.
Huddersfield vs Southampton
After eight games of the Championship season, Southampton sat 15th in the table with 10 points having won just three of their opening eight matches conceding a league high of 19 goals. Huddersfield were 17th with nine points having won two games, scoring nine and conceding 13. Eight games later, the Saints now sit 4th winning six of their next eight games, conceding just seven and finding the net 15 times. They have the best record in the Championship over the last eight games, which is in complete contrast to Huddersfield who over the same period have collected just six points, scoring only five goals.
The hosts have seen very little improvement since Darren Moore took over the reins and alarmingly, they are really struggling in front of goal. They had 19 shots against Cardiff although 14 of these came in the 2nd 45 minutes when they were 3-0 down, but if we exclude that match, they have managed 2,5,5,6 and 7 shots at goal and 1,2,2,4 and 0 shots on target. The game in which they had 0 shots on target was against the bottom side team in Sheffield Wednesday. At the other end they have conceded an average of 15.6 shots at goal over their last five games with an average of 4.2 shots on target.
The Saints in their opening eight games had a xG supremacy of -0.265 but in their most recent eight games this has moved to +0.68. As the side has settled down and players have adapted to the transition to Championship football the performances and results have improved. Over the last eight games no side has won more points than Southampton.
The visitors could easily put four goals past Huddersfield and the hosts have already four in two of their last four games so I am going to take Southampton to overcome a -0.75AH meaning any win will see us profit but we need them to win by 2 or more goals to be paid out in full.
- Southampton -0.75AH at 10/11 with Bet365 or William Hill
Birmingham vs Sheffield Wednesday
Rebecca Welch gets the whistle for this one has I am keen to get onboard with cards with Bet365 setting the line at 4.0 Asian Cards at even money.
Welch has now taken charge of five games this season in the EFL and is currently averaging 5.2 cards per fixture with three of the five having at least five cards and all five having at least four cards. She has carded both sides in all five and both sides have collected 2+ each in all 5 as well so she has been consistent.
The hosts have picked up at least one card in all 16 games this season with an average of 2.63 cards per fixture. At St Andrews all eight games have had at least three cards and both sides carded in every game. The Owls have also been carded in all of their 16 games this term, picking up 2+ cards in five of their eight away days with an average of 2.25 cards.
Both of the sides sit with the top three for fouls committed this season with only Stoke committing more fouls.
The visitors will be well supported and are in desperate need of points whilst the spotlight is on Wayne Rooney after a poor start at the Blues and his last home game they let slip a two-goal lead to draw 2-2 with Ipswich. All in all, this looks like a game with a high card potential.
- Birmingham vs Sheff Wednesday over 4.0 Asian Cards at 1/1 with Bet365
