The International Football Association Board (IFAB) introduced a number of World Cup rule changes that are currently impacting betting markets.
These include changes to VAR, attempts to reduce timewasting and harsher punishments for unsportsmanlike behaviour.
In this article, we will investigate how these rule changes are impacting betting markets, giving examples of how they have been enforced in the World Cup so far.
What has been forecast due to the World Cup rule changes?
More goals in regulation time
The reduction in timewasting should theoretically increase the amount of regulation time available to score goals.
The extra hydration breaks in each half have also seen more time added at the end of them, giving even more time for teams to find the back of the net.
It is therefore no surprise to see more goals scored on average per group-stage game in this World Cup compared to 2022, with the figure increasing from 2.5 to 2.99.
In fact, it is the highest average number of goals scored per match in the group stage since the 1958 World Cup.
Thus, the betting markets most affected by this are Both Teams To Score (BTTS) and Total goals, with each seeing an increase from the previous World Cup.
More penalties and cards
VAR are now able to intervene for potential fouls before a set-piece is being taken, and as a result more penalties and cards were forecast to be given.
In total, 11 penalties were awarded in the group stage, and given 23 were awarded in the whole of the 2022 World Cup (excluding penalty shootouts), we should see an increase at this World Cup.
In total, 178 yellow cards were dished out in the group stage, at an average of 2.47 per game.
10 red cards were also handed out at an average of 0.72 per match.
227 yellow cards and four red cards were given in the whole of the 2022 World Cup, so the volume of red cards has already increased drastically while the number of yellow cards should also surpass the 2022 total.
The spike in red cards is expected as there are more ways that players can get sent off, for instance covering their mouths during confrontations.
Miguel Almiron did this for Paraguay in their group-stage clash against Turkey, and consequently was shown a red card.
The increase in cards in general most affects the Total cards market, and notable players to watch out for in the knockout stage are Diego Gomez (Paraguay), Mohanad Lasheen (Egypt) and Sidny Lopes Cabral (Cape Verde), all receiving two yellow cards each in the group stage.
Almiron, Cesar Montes (Mexico), Nathan Ngoy (Belgium) and Tarik Muharemovic (Bosnia-Herzegovina) all received red cards in the group stage.
The least-disciplined team in general left in the competition is Paraguay, receiving seven yellow cards and one red card in the group stage.
“Rhythm-breaking” nations punished
Smaller nations tend to use “dark arts” to try and slow a game down if they are protecting a lead against the bigger teams, but due to the efforts to reduce timewasting, this has been less effective.
Indeed, 11 of the 12 favourites to win their groups did so, with Portugal the only exception.
A similar pattern could emerge in the knockouts, with Argentina (21/5) backed to retain their World Cup crown by the bookies with a favourable route to the final on paper, while France (6/1) have been installed as second-favourites on the other side of the draw, and are deemed Argentina's likeliest opponents in the final in what would be a repeat of the 2022 final.
More goals from substitutes
Players being substituted must now leave the pitch at the nearest boundary line within 10 seconds, and should they not, the substitute will not be able to come on until the first stoppage after one minute has elapsed following the restart.
One may have forecast that there would be fewer goals from substitutes as this would give them less time to make an impact, but in fact it has been the opposite.
Indeed, goals from substitutes have already surpassed the total of 32 in the entirety of the 2014 World Cup, with as many as 43 being scored in the group stage from players coming off the bench.
Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina also became just the second game in World Cup history to see four goals scored by substitutes in one match, after Hungary 4-1 El Salvador in 1982.
It suggests even if a player is not starting, he still has a significant chance to score after coming off the bench, which should positively affect Anytime scorer markets.
Adam is a freelance sports journalist who has worked for North Star Network since September 2023. He has also written for Football Whispers and Sports Mole as well as Mr Fixit's Tips (MFT), and you can find his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) column and other articles on the MFT website.
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