Brazil, the most successful national team in World Cup history, take on Japan, who are seeking their first-ever victory in a knockout stage match on the world’s biggest stage.
After a slow start and a draw with Morocco, the Selecao crushed Haiti and Scotland, proving that they shouldn’t be written off in the title race. The truth is, Brazil could have finished the group stage with far more lopsided victories if they had put in a little more effort.
In other words, it’s entirely possible we haven’t seen the full potential of Carlo Ancelotti’s team, but we’ve seen how they prefer to play—always looking for an early lead and to close out their matches quickly.
However, this might not work against Japan, who have proven to be a tough nut to crack even for some of the major European national teams. The Samurai Blue also finished their group stage undefeated, with standout performances against the Netherlands and Sweden (two draws).
How the bookies view it: The Selecao will be too much to handle
As expected, bookmakers favour Brazil to win the first fixture in the Round of 32, but Samurai Blue have proven that they are comfortable being the underdogs, and the odds are no reason to underestimate them.
Right now, you can back Brazil at around 7/10, a draw at 14/5, or Japan at around 17/4. However, the odds are subject to change and you can find the best current ones using our best mobile apps for world cup betting.
Recent head-to-head: Japan claimed their first-ever H2H win in 2025
Japan and Brazil have rich history from recent years, including a total of 14 H2Hs. As you'd expect, the Selecao have an overwhelming advantage in the direct meetings, with 11 wins in 14.
The two nations also met at the 2006 World Cup, when Brazil won 4-1. But that Brazilian squad from 20 years ago was on a whole different level than the one they have now.
Perhaps the most important fact is that Brazil's only loss against Japan came in the most recent meeting in late 2025, when Samurai Blue won 3-2 in a friendly match.
Players to watch: Cunha has silenced his doubters
Several Japanese players have drawn attention to their names since the start of the world cup, but this next match will be the real test. It feels much safer to look for potential goalscorers from Brazil, and we believe Matheus Cunha is a fantastic pick.
Despite having a single goal for the national team before this World Cup, his performance in the group stage has cemented his place in the starting line-up.
He wasn't a starter in the first group stage match and Brazil couldn't win. We expect him to start against Japan, and with three goals across the last two matches, he is definitely a primary suspect to score again.
Probable line-ups
Brazil: Alisson, Santos, Gabriel, Marquinhos, Danilo, Casemiro, Guimaraes, Rayan, Paqueta, Cunha, Vinicius Jr.
Japan: Suzuki, Itakura, Tomiyasu, Ito, Nakamura, Tanaka, Sano, Doan, Maeda, Kamada, Ueda
Anything else catch the eye?
Japan have proven that they are comfortable with any style of play—whether defending, counterattacking, or taking control of the ball and building plays. This is a team that isn’t afraid to play its own brand of soccer, even when its opponents are significantly stronger on paper.
They also play extremely cleanly, having received only one card in their three matches so far, which is why we are against betting on cards in this match.
Rather, we expect to see goals at both ends, given our expectations for an open and fast-paced game. Brazil have something to prove, and this is a great opportunity for them to show their best.
Japan have never won a match beyond the group stage of a World Cup, and as much as we’d like to see them succeed, we believe Brazil will be too much for them to handle.
We probably would have thought differently if Kaoru Mitoma and Wataru Endo weren’t injured, but without them, we believe Japan lack the quality needed to handle a team like Brazil at this stage.
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