SOME of you may remember I used to write about Brazil quite a lot a few years ago.
And I wrote a lot about Brazilian games in Serie A and Serie B without ever making one key observation.
Most of the games finish Under 2.5 goals.
- Serie A 2017 O 41% U 59%
- Serie A 2018 (208 games played) (55%) O 37% U 63%
Actually, I wrote more about Serie B, because the less limelight a league gets, the less seriously ‘they’ look at it.
- Serie B 2017 O 38% U 62%
- Serie B 2018 (233 games played) (61%) O 36% U 64%
As I said in my first post, as soon as any league is splitting 60/40 or better for Unders, that’s when we get interested. We’re well into the ‘interested’ zone.
31st Aug Brazil Serie B
Paysandu v EC Juventude KO 11.15pm
- Current Season – Over 2.5 Goals (17th of 20 Home) (Remember, we want Unders, so, that means we want any team’s ranking in the Overs table to be low.)
- Home P11 O3 U8 F10 A10 Avg GPG 1.8
Paysandu are a perfectly disrespectable 1.8 average goals per home game in their own right, but it’s Juventude’s away record which we’re about to look at that attracts us particularly in this game. Nevertheless, seven of Paysandu’s last ten homes have gone under, and three of the last four, including last time out.
- Current Season – Over 2.5 Goals (19th of 20 Away)
- Away P12 O3 U9 F9 A9 Avg GPG 1.5
I don’t usually need to go back months to find a game in which a team I’m speculating on went over in the home or away configuration I’m after, but in this instance it was nine away games ago on 25th May that Juventude last played a game that went over. In the interim, they’ve had two games with 2 goals, four games with one goal – winning two and losing two, not that we could care less either way – and two glorious goal-free festivals of ‘is there anybody on that godforsaken subs bench that isn’t a banjo-wielding barn-door misser?’
Juventude’s current away record is their last 5 aways all were under 1.5 goals. In four of them, they’ve scored nil, and in one of them, they’ve scored 1 goal. In three of them, they’ve conceded nil, and in two of them, they’ve conceded 1 goal. So, two at 0-0, and three 1-0 either way.
H2H: Not much interested in head to heads beyond two seasons, and last season is at least double the pointer of two seasons ago, but last season it was 0-0 at Paysandu. (With Juventude home last season, it was 1-0, and this season with Juventude home, on 12th May, it was 1-1, but, as I will keep warning, the reverse fixtures in these leagues can be deceptive as teams often play quite differently home and away.) Two seasons ago, they were not in the same league but met in the cup. It was Paysandu 1-2 Juventude. Well… that doesn’t even ring an alarm bell in a different town.
- Under 2.5 is a very slightly disappointing 2/5 (bet365).
1st Sep Brazil Serie B
CRB v Sampaio Correa KO 1.30am
- Current Season – Over 2.5 Goals (17th of 20 Home)
- Home P11 O3 U8 F11 A11 Avg GPG 2
The bad news is, last time out at home the CRB game ended over, but that was against Fortaleza who are top of the league – a game CRB won, actually, 2-1. However, Fortaleza play open and they are the highest goalscorers in the division. So, worth noting in seven prior CRB home games, all went under. Four with 2 goals, two with 1 goal and one scrubgrass spectactular. Five of their last five aways have gone under, too, which is good, but they’re home today, so, only persuasive to a certain extent! Their last five homes, they’ve scored 4 and conceded 3.
- Current Season – Over 2.5 Goals (11th of 20 Away)
- Away P11 O4 U7 F7 A15 Avg GPG 2
Four of their last five aways have gone under, including the last three, and all five of their last five games home and away have gone under. I’m looking at their last twenty results home and away and there are a fair few goals, but only six of those are over. There are 9 aways and only three are over. Total goals F6 A9. Their last five aways they’ve scored 3 and conceded 6.
- Under 2.5 is a more generous 8/15 (bet365)
I need to add that @Hullshaker put up an excellent bet on this league on Tuesday, and I agreed 100% with his analysis and recommendation. I’m looking to write about leagues that have a bias to Unders, but, because bookies are basing their odds on general trends, especially in the leagues they’re not quite so concerned with – because we, the punters, don’t tend to be – that often means Overs can be a really good bet when you have two higher-scoring sides.
Good luck today, everybody, whatever you’re on!
- Aug 31st/Sep 1st Brazil – Serie B Under 2.5 Goals Double
- Paysandu v EC Juventude x
- CRB v Sampaio Correa
- (11/10, bet365)