An irritating week last weekend, the spread was beaten for me by a point, (although I did suggest taking the 3 at a slightly worse price which would have pushed) as Jacoby Brissett rushed in on 4th and 8 to tie up the game for the Dolphins.
Somehow the total lost again despite there being 38 points at half time, the Seahawks once again failed to score in the second half, however the TD scorer came from this game as Justin Jefferson found the endzone.
The player prop selection was particularly annoying as I mentioned 5 different selections, of course the only one which lost was the official pick for the column which left me with a losing week, still in profit for the season, but could have been so much better.
Week 4 of the NFL Season
Some cracking games on the slate for week 4. The early televised game sees the Browns travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. The unbeaten Panthers go to Dallas, the Chiefs need to get a win in Phillie.
The later games see the NFC West taking each other on, Seahawks @ 49ers and Cardinals @ Rams, and the Ravens take on the unbeaten Broncos in Denver.
Then to wrap up the night Tom Brady goes back to New England needing a few yards to overtake Drew Brees atop the all time QB yardage chart. He'll be looking to stomp on his former team to prove a point. I think they cover the spread there and he goes home triumphant with another NFL record.
As always a few options here, I'm very tempted to fade the Steelers again, although I appreciated they were dinged up vs. the Bengals last week it was one of the worst performances I've seen from a team in a long, long time. It was shambolic. They're under a TD ‘dog in Green Bay, I think it's a lot of history keeping that line down. However, I am biased when it comes to them lot so I'll give it a miss especially with TJ Watt returning.
The Rams OWN the Cardinals, 9-1 straight up and 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 games between the two of them. I think the Rams are the better team here and I do think they'll cover the 4.5 point spread at home.
But I'll be taking the Baltimore Ravens to cover 1 point in Denver.
This line has shifted from the Ravens being underdogs to favourites and I agree with that move. The Broncos have been impressive so far, but they've had literally the easiest schedule possible. Now, I will admit they've stomped on those teams, covering the spread in all of them and only allowing 26 points in the process. AND… They've only failed to score in 1 quarter all year.
But this is something completely different. The Ravens come in after a record breaking 66 yard field goal snatched the win in Detroit, they'll know they've got to be better here and the run game should be the key to the game for them. It goes against the weakest part of the Denver defense.
Lamar Jackson will be fine, Ty'son Williams, Latavius Murray and apparently even Le'veon Bell might get some action, and you know that Marquise Brown isn't going to drop 3 TDs like he did last weekend.
The Broncos are down SEVEN starters due to injury, I think they're over-rated anyway, the Ravens are the better team I'll take them to cover.
Best spread Ravens -1 @ 20/21 (most)
Yeah, I have been terrible on totals. I pass.
I like the under in Denver, over in Rams.
Interestingly. Maybe. The Unders are 29-20 after Thursday nights win for the Bengals went under the total IN THEIR WIN.
Best TD Scorer
I don't want to tip a 1/2 shot, so I won't but that's actually a fairly good price for Derrick Henry to score against the Jets. They are without their two main WRs, I think it'll just be MORE Henry, 2 or more is 9/4. I can't tip that at the price, but again I think it'll happen.
I can however tip Ezekiel Elliott at 5/6 (Skybet)
The Dallas Cowboys running back faces a Panthers team who've started very well but like the Broncos haven't had any challenges yet. The Cowboys offense is arguably the best in the league and should put up a few scores in this one. He has been sharing carries with Tony Pollard who had a couple of days off this week while his lady had a baby, but Zeke gets the red zone carries and I don't see that changing. 10 Redzone rushes – 3 TDs, the next highest on the team is 2 carries.
Will Zack Moss make it 3 games in a row with a score? They're 17 point favourites at home to the Texans. They should be running the ball a lot and Moss has been getting red zone carries for them since he came back into the team after being a healthy scratch in game one. He's rushed for 2 TDs and caught one as well in his two games, yet you can still get 19/10 on him scoring anytime on Sunday night, best priced a William Hill.
Best TD scorers – Zeke 5/6 (skybet), Moss 19/10 (WillHill)
Best Player prop.
After missing out on Miami players last week I may well be looking back there again this week. Jaylen Waddle (4/6) and Mike Gesicki (23/20) both saw double-digit targets against the Raiders, yet they're both set at 3.5 receptions this week against a “not great” Colts defense. My only reservation is that they were trailing against the Raiders, I don't think they will be trailing in this one.
There's a player who's line is set at 3.5 receptions though, who has had 7 targets in each of his last two games, with 5 and 6 receptions from the backfield, going against a team who are one of the worst in the league against the pass.
Cordarrelle Patterson is apparently a thing in Atlanta. In addition to the receptions he's been getting 7 carries a week as well. That doesn't help with this bet obviously, but shows that they like having him on the field. It seems likely that Matt Ryan will be under considerable pressure in this game as his offensive line gets over-run by the Washington pass-rush. What happens when QBs don't get time in the pocket? They dump off to the RB.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but Best player prop – Cordarrelle Patterson o3.5 receptions @ 4/5 (Bet365)
I've made it through all of this without mentioning that the CINCINNATI BENGALS are atop the AFC North after 4 games WHO DEY BABY!
Enjoy Sunday night, I can without worrying about my team for once.