Well, hit the spread and the total on Sunday, nothing on the props though, Swift got the yardage but no score, Brown had 42 yards at the half, nothing afterwards and Firkser didn't get involved in the redzone, Jonnu had 2 TDs though, Titans love the tight ends.

Dolphins (+3) @ Jaguars: 49

The Dolphins come into this one 0-2 having lost to the Pats in the opener and a close one to the Bills on Sunday. They played the Bills close in fairness and should take some confidence from that performance.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the man at QB for them after a good year last year, he does what he does, some great games, some not so great as he's shown already this year, 3 INTs, 0 TDs vs the Patriots in week 1, 2 TDs, 0 INTs vs the Bills this last week and 328 yards. He spreads the ball around well, this week he got Mike Gesicki to 130 yards and Gesicki faces a decent matchup in this one against a Jags team who has conceded a fair few yards to Tight ends in the first two games of the year. Devante Parker still leads the WR group although they gave Isaiah Ford a lot of targets on Sunday. Preston Williams is the deep threat for them.

They're confusing at RB, having signed Jordan Howard and Matt Breida over the summer, but now seemingly giving Myles Gaskin the bulk of the carries and receptions from the position. Howards get the goal-line carries though.

The Jags sit at 1-1, a heck of a lot better than most expected coming into the season having beaten the Colts in the opener and a narrow loss to the Titans at the weekend. Gardner Minshew is the smoothest looking mofo in the game with his mullet and his tash. I'll be honest I thought he was a fad, all “style” and not much else, but he's impressed me this year completing 19/20 in week 1 and throwing for 328 yards and 3 TDs last week against a solid Titans defense.

He will be without DJ Chark tonight though which is a loss, he had 1,000 yards and 8 TDs last season, but Keelan Cole has had a score in each game and I assume will be the WR1 in this one. Chris Conley and Laviska Shenault get a bump up as a result and are probably worth a look over their yard lines (35.5 and 42.5 respectively) Collin Johnson might be worth a long-shot for a TD, he had an endzone look at the weekend and is a big lad. Tyler Eifert is a big lad too and has history with Jay Gruden who is the OC in Jacksonville now, he scored at the weekend and may well get a little more tonight with Chark out although the Pats through two games have only given up 2 receptions to the TE.

Rookie James Robinson has carried the ball well and it looks like they may have been right to cut Leonard Fournette in pre-season with him waiting in the wings. He scored his first TD at the weekend and ran for over 100 yards.

Summary

I won't be taking anything on the spread here, even without the Chark news I was apprehensive on it, I think the Jags being fave by 3 is about right and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them win by that margin. I could also see the Dolphins getting the win, so I'm leaving it alone.

I do think there will be points though, so I'll take the over 49 even though it's gone up a couple of points since Monday. These are the 2 worst pass defenses in the league through two weeks according to DVOA and both QBs like to throw it about.

Bets

  • Over 49 points – 10/11 (Most)
  • Chris Conley o35.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365/Hills)
  • Collin Johnson anytime 11/1 (Skybet) – HALF STAKE

Good Luck if you're on.

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

10 Comments
  1. bigmick 1 month ago

    As a dolphins fan I’m hoping for a dolphins win. This game can go either way tonight though. I agree about the overs I got on at over 48 points but can see it being over 50 anyways. I think this could be similar to the browns v Bengals game points wise.
    Both pass defenses are so bad I’m taking a chance on the beard and mustache throwing over 300 yds each 9/1
    I do think the phins will edge it but could be my heart talking so going for them to win by 1-10 points 23/10
    I do like Conley going over but I’m going to go for Ford over 36.5 yds 5/6
    Each team to score 1+ td in each half 7/4
    Long shot bet for the night robinson, Cole, Howard, and gesicki all to score a td 66/1

  2. nflfan 1 month ago

    Hi all no bet from me but I think concensus is the points go over
    Skybet got both teams to score
    30 or more points each 12/1 worth a small
    Interest ☘️

  3. greenman 1 month ago

    cole anytime t.d but the odds have been cut
    Each Team to Score Points in Every Quarter (WAS 10/1) 20/1 on sky

    got 4 f1 bets incase anyone watchs that

    Valtteri Bottas @ 2/1

    Fastest Qualifier – Russian GP

    Ferrari Double Points @ 11/4

    Fiery Ferrari – Leclerc Top 6 & Vettel Points @ 8/1

    Sebastian Vettel @ 11/8

    Points – Russian GP

    bottas pole is my main bet, all with sky

  4. dj76 1 month ago

    In my opinion both teams are quite evenly matched and from everything i’ve read about the game the general consensus is that we are in for a high scoring game as both teams are much better on offense than defence so i agree with the over & have also backed the same bet that big mick has mentioned above which is each team to score 1+ td in each half at 7/4 with paddy power so let’s hope it’s raining touchdowns in florida later on.

  5. mar10bet 1 month ago

    Not going to stay up for this one and with the total now at 49 it’s small stakes. I’m going on the spread. Dolphins averaging 19.5 to Jags 28.5, Jags the better rushing team with the better rush defence only allowing 26.5 so far against what I’d say are better teams adds up to the Jags covering even if Fitzmagic has a good game.
    Jags -2.5 @ 5/6 – 2.4pts
    Jags -3 / over 49 @ 3/1 (bet365 parlay bonus) – 1pt

  6. TDTips 1 month ago

    File this one in “bad beat” territory.

    Chris Conley dropped catches and was missed on a walk-in TD – Would have given me his yards, a TD (he was 9/2) and taken the total over.

    Collin Johnson, was always a longshot.

  7. mar10bet 1 month ago

    Unlucky Adam. I’ve seen the highlights now and it should have been more points on the board. Jags got denied what looked like a first down in the red zone too with forward progress but lost it on downs.
    Well played mick & dj on the 7/4 TD bet though 💪
    Looking forward to Sunday now. All the early spreads I took in Colts, Rams & Titans have all drifted but the total on Bucs @ Denver has dropped 0.5 and I’m on the over 🙈 Still not sure why as that Denver O moved the ball well game 1 and even with Lindsay out and losing Lock during the game against Steelers they still moved the sticks against a better D than the Bucs. That one going over 43 seems like a value bet to me. Any early thoughts?

  8. bigmick 1 month ago

    Happy with the dolphins last night played better defensively. Got both to score a td each half and my long shot had 3 of 4 players scoring a td. Fitz didn’t pass much in the 2nd half but that was down to the phins taking the early lead and not having to play catch up. Unlucky with Conley Adam he should of got that easy and would on another day. Thanks marbet I think it’s to do with lock and Sutton being out and Lindsay and juedy being on the injury report. Driskel played well and with Gordon they can still move the ball and put up points and the Bucs will score points too. I actually will be leaving that game alone but if pushed id of guessed this one goes under but it could be close my prediction would be Bucs 24-17. If you look at last season Broncos home games the highest scoring home game was 44 total points think they tend to keep scores lower at mile high even the game against the titans this season was low.

    • mar10bet 1 month ago

      Think the bookies were reading this mick as it’s now 42.5 😂

  9. bigmick 1 month ago

    Saying that a lot of the Bucs games go over as does many of Brady’s games so will have a chance for what it’s worth

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