A fairly successful start to the NFL season – 3.20 points of profit from opening weekend, not exactly huge, but a start nonetheless – I apologise for messing up the link for the P/L spreadsheet, turns out I was copying the wrong thing… MrFixIt P/L – I believe that should work this week. I'll stick to the same format as last week.

Longer previews available on my site – TouchdownTips if you're interested.

Spread

A few to choose from this week I like the Chiefs and Ravens both to cover although they're getting close to unbackable at the lines available now, I quite like the Lions to cover in GB, they have covered 4 of their last 5 trips to Lambeau including a 1 point loss last season, but their defense isn't great and Rodgers ripped the Vikings apart last week.

So it's the team playing the Vikings this week I'm looking to here. The Colts -3 at home. The Vikings defense is a lot of younger players with little experience and it showed. Coach Zimmer will have laid into them during the week but I think it will take a few weeks for them to settle into rhythm and the Colts should be able to take advantage, they've got the best offensive line in the league and Philip Rivers is a good QB. Jonathan Taylor takes over at RB with Marlon Mack out for the season, he was a machine in college and I like over on all his lines today, rushing and receiving. The Vikings should be able to put up points though and Dalvin Cook is Evens on Skybet, Taylor is 11/10 (Both to score is 10/3) – Colts -3

Total

I think a few of the games mentioned above should go over their totals, the Lions v Packers, Vikings v Colts should both go over. There's on game that jumps out though and it's the highest total on the board as the Falcons travel to Dallas. The number has risen all week but there will be points in this one. The Cowboys lost LVE to a collarbone injury and their secondary is poor while the Falcons allowed 38 at home to the Seahawks last week and led the league in passing yards in week one. Falcons v Cowboys over 53.5

Player prop

Quite a few I like here as well actually. As said above, over on everything Jonathan Taylor, if you want a short priced one for an acca I don't see how Calvin Ridley o4.5 receptions doesn't hit (best priced 1.65 on Will Hill); I quite like Zack Moss o11.5 receiving yards for the Bills, but it's a little dodgy with little tape on him. Raheem Mostert o9.5 receiving yards for the 49ers against the Jets, the Jets actually have a pretty decent run defense, so it makes sense that Shanahan will plan to use him through the air as well. But the one I'll officially record is Marquise Brown o48.5 receiving yards (Ladbrokesfor the Ravens. He had 5 receptions for 101 yards against the Browns in week one, he's the leading target of the WRs in Baltimore and can take it to the house from anywhere, he faces another poor secondary this week in Houston and I think he'll be able to get near the century again. – Marquise Brown o48.5 receiving yards (Ladbrokes

Touchdown Scorers (a short and a long)

As said above Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor are really well priced for the Vikings v Colts game. I like the TD Treble on Skybet today, think that's a cracking price for the three they've got listed. I think I'll be plumping for D'Andre Swift anytime at 7/2 (365He scored one last week and should have had 2 but dropped the game winner at the buzzer. The one he got was on the ground and the one he should have had was through the air, so they're clearly fine to use him in the rushing and passing game. Kerryon Johnson doesn't seem a factor and Adrian Peterson will get them up and down the field. – The longshot for the weekend, for me, it's similar to last week in the fact it's a tight end. Anthony Firkser 10/1 (365for the Tennessee Titans. He scored a couple in the playoffs and had a couple of targets last week but it was the other two TEs who got the scores, Jonnu Smith and Mycole Pruitt both scoring for the Titans. With AJ Brown out there's a chance (in my eyes) that Jonnu fills that spot moving Firkser up to TE1. So I think he'll get redzone looks and I can't say no at 10/1

Summary

  • Colts -3
  • Falcons v Cowboys o53.5
  • Marquise Brown o48.5 receiving yards (Coral/Ladbrokes) – 49.5 elsewhere is obviously still fine
  • D'Andre Swfit anytime – 7/2 (365)
  • Anthony Firkser anytime – 10/1 (365)

Good Luck, and look forward to week 2!

By the way if you like player props but get tired of looking for the best line, then check out nflprops.bet for access to our prop comparison spreadsheet.

Cheers, Adam (@TouchdownTips)

20 Comments
  1. greenman 1 month ago

    cheers adam

  2. nflfan 1 month ago

    Gunna try this home acc
    All ml
    Dallas
    Green Bay
    Tennessee
    Pittsburgh
    Arizona
    Pays 10/3 general
    Good luck all ☘️

  3. nflfan 1 month ago

    To score a touchdown mc caffrey
    E Elliot and D Henry enhanced to 6/1 skybet
    Also A Rodgers over 267 passing yards 5/6 might be worth a look small bet first one

    • TDTips 1 month ago

      Yeah I said about the treble, looks really good.

      Rodgers may get closer to 400 again against this secondary

  4. bigmick 1 month ago

    I posted my tips in the wrong place earlier today. I’m going double bills and packers on the handicap 66/25
    Scotty Miller over 46.5 yds 5/6
    Josh Allen over 36.5 rushing yds
    Not betting it myself but Allen might score a td as well odds 7/5

  5. bigmick 1 month ago

    Falcons v cowboys overs is a great shout. Some interesting picks this week Adam.
    Rodgers should easily get that against the lions d

  6. TDTips 1 month ago

    “interesting” isn’t usually good! I’ll be honest I didn’t expect Kerryon to get carries this week.

    And Jonnubhas both the TE TDs for the Titans so far

  7. TDTips 1 month ago

    Total is in, spread is in.

    Firkser at the moment has 40 yards from 3 but not where we need it

    Swift has a ton of yards

  8. nflfan 1 month ago

    Wow
    What can you say why we all love this game so much the Dallas game
    American sports onside kick unbelievable

  9. bigmick 1 month ago

    Prop bets both down and late Miami td makes sure all my bets are down. Did take the overs in the cowboys game as agreed with that one. Took brown on the prop bet too so hopefully that will come up to help recover some of my losses today.

    Good shout nflfan on your acca looking good. Fancy the cards to win against Washington. Nice comeback from the cowboys.

  10. nflfan 1 month ago

    Ye looks good early for the cards but after the cowboys game ?
    2/3 on the touchdown treble d Henry couldn’t score
    Rodgers short on the pass yards which surprised me

  11. bigmick 1 month ago

    Also Adam I actually meant interesting as in good interesting on this occasion. You make good selections every week. I hope to make better tips myself as the season goes on.

  12. bigmick 1 month ago

    Yeah surprised by Rodgers being short on the yards as well. Jones ripped it on the ground today instead. He didn’t have to throw as much. Unlucky with Henry not scoring like me being unlucky with the late Miami td doing my packers/bills handicap bet.

  13. mar10bet 1 month ago

    Parlays paid biiiiiiiiig tonight! Bet365 removed ML from the parlay bonus but. Guy on eChat couldn’t have been smugger about it too! 😂 Still profits everywhere tonight. Might be watching most teams practice squads by week 5 at this rate but 🙈 Sooo many injuries

  14. TDTips 1 month ago

    It’s going to be interesting adapting to things next weekend with all the injuries, could be value everywhere but they might also cut prices on everyone to keep safe.

    Had a good night on my site, not so much on here, Marquise Brown had 42 yards very early then they stopped throwing the ball!

    Tonight looking at overs on Cook/Sanders yards, maybe a long shot on Deonte Harris anytime with no MT everyone shifts up a spot really

  15. bigmick 1 month ago

    Cook over 54.5 yds 5/6
    Murray over 32.5 rushing yds 4/5
    Paddy power whatoddspaddy bet – Kamara over 52 rushing yds, Jacobs over 70 rushing yds, cook over 53 reception yds, Waller over 50 reception yds 13/1 small stakes
    Kamara 1+ rushing and 1+ receiving tds 7/1 again small stakes
    Lot of betting on the raiders it seems with the handicap line changing I think they could possibly cover but I think the saints will win. I also am leaning towards the unders but not touching either tonight.

  16. mar10bet 1 month ago

    Already seeing if value in 49ers -4.5 @ MetLife. Shanahan kept games close 2018 with similar injuries across the board but they’ve got a deeper talent pull and Mullens can still move the ball. Jones is good for a couple interceptions and I think the 49ers will get to him as well looking at the sacked he’s already taken. I can’t see the Giants getting many points so that spread seems manageable for me especially now they don’t need to plan for Barkley running at them.

  17. nflfan 1 month ago

    Well done all the winners this week
    Every favourite went in until last night
    Early thoughts for weekend think the titans line might move the Vikings look poor ☘️

  18. nflfan 1 month ago

    Just placed Titans +2.5 4/6
    Doubled with over 40.5 points in the philly v bengals game pays a little over 11/8 on coral machine in shop
    Only early thoughts ☘️

  19. TDTips 1 month ago

    Yeah, last night really didn’t go well!

    I’m on a few. I like both of those picks. – Falcons and the Steelers on the spread, and over in the SF v NYG game, Giants won’t have a run game, so think they’ll throw more and score quicker with the 49ers having so many injuries. Probably strange logic, but still. It’s a low total!

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