NFL Picks Week 7 – TNF – Chiefs at Broncos – Will Royce Roll?

Once again there was no post on Monday because I didn't have many thoughts on the game as a whole, annoyingly the two things I considered were Jamaal Williams yards, and a TD, but felt the TD was priced too short and wasn't entirely confident in his workload to take his yards, he flew over and scored. Of course.

I'll be honest I'm not entirely sure on tonight either really. It's a bit of a trappy game with the better team in worse form.

(4-2) Chiefs -3 @ Broncos (2-4): total is 48.5

Chiefs

The Chiefs have lost their last 2, both at home, against the Colts and the Texans. The Colts in fact looked like they showed the blueprint of how to beat the usually rampant Chiefs offense. You keep them off the field, run man-to-man and make them run the ball, and that worked well for them. They have had quite a few injuries so far this year though, and while they welcomed back Tyreek Hill last week they lost Sammy Watkins. Watkins is out again for this one. So outside of Hill you're looking at the like of Demarcus Robinson who has dropped off after blowing up onto the scene, Mecole Hardman who is a Tyreek clone, and I guess DeAnthony Thomas who is far from convincing in the passing game. They do still have Travis Kelce who is having a quiet year for TDs, but has almost 500 yards on the season.

The corresponding fixture last year was the famous Lefty throw by Mahomes which had commentators and analysts alike creaming themselves over it, and admittedly I was pretty impressed as well. I think his ankle injury is really affecting him as they failed to connect on several deep passes last week. The offensive line missing 2 starters doesn't help either, and the inability to establish a run game really isn't helping them. McCoy looks like he's been off the injury report all week which helps them and Damien Williams is a further week back from his injury. Darrel Williams only had 11% of offensive snaps last week, but is a teaser at 9.50 to score anytime on Skybet.

Broncos

The Broncos actually match up pretty well with the Chiefs. They have a good two-headed attack in the run game with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman getting about 25 carries per week between them, roughly a 15/10 split in carries in Lindsays favour, and the Chiefs have allowed the most rushing yards to running backs in the league so far this term. So you've got to imagine the plan will be, as it was for the Colts, to keep Mahomes off the field but running the ball a lot. Both are adept in the passing game as well so there's an additional threat from them there.

It's probably for the best for the Broncos regardless of the opposition as Joe Flacco isn't really anyone you want to rely on, only 6 TDs this year and 5 INTs, one in each of his last 5 games. When he does try and pass it, his main targets are Emmanuel Sanders who came back well from a potentially career threatening injury and increasingly Courtland Sutton who has had far more of the ball in recent weeks and leads the team in RZ targets. The rookie tight end Noah Fant has mixed in a bit as well, he's usually set around 25 yards which always tempts me.

Summary

A really tough one to call. The game in Denver last year was actually very entertaining as the Chiefs overcame a 10 point deficit in the 4th quarter to win the game. The Broncos have lost 2 home games to last second field goals this year, so they've definitely been in every game so far.

I've got nothing on the spread, or the total. The Chiefs are the better offense and should cover the spread. I would lean to the unders on the total, but the Chiefs are capable of putting up 25 every week by themselves so I'm not taking that on either.

Betting recommendations

• Joe Flacco o0.5 interceptions – 1.67 (Skybet/365)
• Royce Freeman o21.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (365) – 22.5 at 1.91 at Betfred if you prefer.

Skybet have their bet £10 get a free £5 on RaBs offer on as well which is usually worth a look for TNF games.

Good Luck if you're on anything tonight. Should be an interesting game.

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

🔗 Share on Social Media