LET'S give Group B to Serbia which makes Wales v Ireland a second-placed decider.
Two points separate the top three so the Serbs will finish first of they beat Georgia at home and Wales need a draw to clinch second spot – but that could leave them as worst runner-up.
In fact while the game has draw written all over it that result could knock out both teams.
Serbia missed a chance to qualify in midweek with a last-gasp loss in Austria but are no bigger than 2-11 with William Hill to win tonight and I can't see them slipping up. Consider Serbia -1 at 1-2 with Ladbrokes.
Wales and the Irish will have one eye on that outcome but will have no option to go for broke.
The sides drew 0-0 in Dublin and another tight and tense game – probably a low scorer – is expected. Under 2.5 goals looks good at 6-4 with Marathonbet.
Wales won for the first time in four years without Gareth Bale as Tom Lawrence hit the vital goal in Georgia and I reckon they'll get the result they need to finish second – whether that be a win or draw.
The likes of Joe Allen and Aaron Ramsay will need big displays in the absence of Bale and try Allen to score at 11-2 with Betfred.
They are 7-5 at McBookie to win yesterday but are now a best 13-10 at Unibet. Wales draw no bet paid 9-10 at Marathonbet but has been cut to a biggest 3-5 with the same firm so it's clear where the money's going.
Elsewhere Spain avoided a last-day sweat when Italy inexplicably failed to beat Macedonia at home so the three Group G games are dead rubbers. The Spanish can relax on their trip to Israel and are likely to rotate players.
However, Spain should still be too strong for a side that's struggled in this campaign and I like them at 2-5 with William Hill on a double or treble.
Group I is in Iceland's hands after their stunning 3-0 defeat of Turkey in Istanbul at the weekend. Iceland will clinch top spot by beating Kosovo who have lost eight qualifiers in a row after drawing their opener against Finland.
Iceland aren't generally high scorers while Kosovo lost just 1-0 in Croatia, 2-0 in Iceland and 3-0 at Turkey. Best bets are Iceland to win to nil at 8-15 with Paddy Power or Iceland -2AH at the same price with Unibet.
Unless Iceland slip up the meeting between Ukraine and Croatia in Kiev is a second-place shootout with no play-off guaranteed. Ukraine's goal difference is three worse so they must win and are a best 6-4 at William Hill and Betfred.
Croatia undoubtedly have more quality but Friday's draw against Finland was a shocker and that followed an edgy 1-0 defeat of Kosovo and 1-0 loss in Iceland.
The Finnish draw finished off coach Ante Cacic who was axed so Zlatko Dalic is the interim coach and he has arrived with no assistants and the timing isn't ideal.
Mario Mandzukic is a doubt and it would be a shame to see players like him and Luka Modric miss the finals but Ukraine look better fixed here. They are a best 2-1 at Marathonbet and I'm not sure they should be underdogs.
Yarmolenko has netted in his side's last two wins against Turkey and Kosovo and has started he season at Borussia Dortmund in decent shape.
- Wales draw no bet
- Serbia -1
- Iceland to win to nil
- Ukraine draw no bet
- Yarmolenko to score