The group stage is almost complete. From this point on, every match is win or go home, and knockout football is a very different betting environment.
Over the last week I've built a historical database covering every World Cup knockout match from 2006 through to 2022. That's five tournaments, 80 matches and almost 20 years of results across the markets most punters bet on. Both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals, extra time, penalty shootouts and clean sheets.
The aim was simple. Do bookmakers consistently price these markets correctly once the knockout rounds begin?
The data suggests they don't.
Several markets have produced remarkably consistent trends across five tournaments. Others are priced far more aggressively than the historical numbers justify. While every match should still be assessed on its own merits, understanding these long-term baselines gives you a useful starting point before looking at team news, xG numbers and tactical match-ups.
Here are the trends that stood out.
Both Teams to Score: The long-term trend is moving higher
Across the 80 knockout matches in the database, both teams scored in 46% of games. On the surface that makes the market look close to a coin flip, meaning odds around 11/10 are about right based on the long-term average.
The more interesting story is how those numbers have evolved.
Only 31% of knockout matches saw both teams score in 2006. By 2018 that figure had climbed to 56%, and it remained at 56% in Qatar four years later. Two consecutive World Cups have comfortably cleared the overall historical average.
That shift reflects how international football has changed. Teams press higher, defend with more risk and attack with greater intent than they did two decades ago. Even nations set up to defend usually possess enough quality on the break to create chances, making clean sheets harder to keep once the strongest teams reach the knockout rounds.
That doesn't mean every knockout game is suited to both teams to score. Tactical styles, team quality and tournament situation still matter. The historical data simply suggests the market has become more favourable than the headline 46% figure implies.
What does that mean in betting terms?
Using only the last two World Cups, both teams scored in 56% of knockout matches. Odds of 19/20 imply a probability of 51.3%, leaving almost five percentage points between the market and the recent historical strike rate.
That isn't enough to back the market blindly, but it is enough to make both teams to score worth serious consideration whenever two attack-minded sides meet in the Round of 32 or Round of 16. Use the group-stage xG numbers to identify matches where both teams consistently created chances, then compare those figures with the odds on offer.
The trend points towards goals at both ends more often than the market continues to price
Under 2.5 Goals: Knockout football produces fewer goals
The goals market shows an equally clear trend. Across all 80 knockout matches, Under 2.5 goals landed in 59% of games. Typical prices range between 9/10 and 21/20, implying probabilities of 49% to 53%. The historical strike rate sits comfortably above those figures.
The reasons are easy to understand.
Knockout football rewards patience rather than risk. One mistake can end a tournament, so teams become more disciplined without the ball and far less willing to chase the game early. Managers are often happy to keep the score level and play for extra time rather than expose themselves on the counter.
That cautious approach has produced an average of only 2.19 goals per game across the 80 matches in the dataset.
At first glance, both teams to score landing in 46% of matches and Under 2.5 goals hitting 59% looks contradictory. In reality, the two markets overlap more often than many bettors realise.
The 1-1 draw was the single most common scoreline, occurring 11 times. That result lands both teams to score and Under 2.5 goals, showing why the markets should not automatically be viewed as opposites.
What does that mean for betting?
Under 2.5 goals deserves respect throughout the knockout stage, but the edge becomes even stronger later in the tournament. The quarter-finals, in particular, have consistently produced low-scoring matches, making that round one of the clearest historical betting angles.
Extra Time: The Market Still Undervalues It
No market produced a stronger long-term edge than extra time. Across the 80 knockout matches, 49% required an additional 30 minutes. That is almost one game in every two.
The breakdown by tournament is remarkably consistent. Extra time was needed in 56% of matches in 2006, 50% in both 2010 and 2014, before easing to 44% in both 2018 and 2022. Even the lowest figure remains significantly higher than the probabilities bookmakers generally imply.
Most firms price extra time between 9/4 and 11/4. Those odds imply a probability of only 27% to 31%.
History paints a very different picture.
Even using only the two most recent World Cups, extra time occurred in 44% of knockout matches. Across all five tournaments the figure rises to 49%. That creates a gap of between 13 and 22 percentage points compared with the market.
Few betting markets show such a consistent difference over such a large sample.
The expanded 2026 World Cup should increase the number of evenly matched knockout ties, particularly in the Round of 32. More closely matched teams naturally increase the likelihood of games remaining level after 90 minutes, making the extra time market worth close attention throughout the tournament.
The key is price. At odds of 9/4 you only need the bet to win 30.8% of the time to break even. History suggests the true figure is much closer to one in every two matches.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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