Colombia face Portugal at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami to determine the winner of Group K, which has so far provided some unexpected results. While both nations have virtually secured their places in the next stage, their final positions in the group will determine whether they end up on an easier path to the final.
Unlike Portugal, Colombia have been flawless since the start of the World Cup, making this one of the most exciting third-round fixtures. They currently occupy the top position in the group, and finishing there will send them against one of the 3rd place teams.
Finishing second in Group K will send the team in question against the runner-up from Group L, and right now, this could be either England, Ghana, or Panama. Based on what we've seen from their potential 3rd-placed opponents, winning this group definitely means an easier knockout stage.
Portugal kicked off the World Cup with an underwhelming performance against D.R. Congo, but immediately bounced back with a 5-0 win over Uzbekistan, with a brace from Cristiano Ronaldo.
On paper, the Team of the Quincunxes have the better squad and the gap in class is significant, with rare exceptions of world-class players like Luis Diaz. Portugal should be able to win this contest nine out of 10 times, but Colombia have looked like the more complete squad in the two rounds so far.
How the bookies view it: Are they underestimating the Coffee Growers?
Bookmakers agree with our theory and give Portugal a huge advantage in the odds ahead of this match. Moreover, the latest trend shows a significant decrease in the odds, with Portugal priced at 23/20 before the World Cup and 4/5 now.
This means that the Europeans have been getting heavy support from bettors and if you want to back them, you should do it before the odds drop even more.
Alternatively, you can back Colombia at 33/10 (and rising) or a draw at 27/10. Find the best available options with our best World Cup betting apps.
Recent head-to-head: An exciting first meeting between two ambitious teams
Surprisingly, Colombia and Portugal have never had the chance to face off in a World Cup before, so this will be one of the most interesting new rivalries to date.
Players to watch: Fernandes needs someone to convert the chances
Colombia dealt with Congo even without a star performance from Luis Diaz, but against Portugal, the 29-year-old is definitely going to need to step up.
On the other end, the big question is whether Cristiano Ronaldo can continue with the goals when faced with real opposition. His brace against Uzbekistan was somewhat expected, but he also missed three big chances for a hat trick and overall took seven shots.
We are not yet convinced that his presence for 90 minutes is the best tactic, but you should definitely watch out for those player shots markets, as he is certainly going to get at least a few chances again.
Otherwise, Bruno Fernandes finally got an assist in this World Cup, and created several big chances on the side. With the odds for an assist sitting at 11/4 right now, there's real value in this option.
Probable line-ups
Colombia: Vargas, Mojica, Lucumi, Sanchez, Munoz, Lerma, Arias, Puerta, Rodriguez, Suarez, Diaz
Portugal: Costa, Cancelo, Mendes, Dias, Veiga, Neves, Vitinha, Fernandes, Neto, Felix, Ronaldo
Anything else catch the eye?
This is not an easy match to predict, given Colombia's top form and Portugal's shaky performance so far. What we expect is action, however, and we can see both teams scoring at least once in this match.
We also see potential for cards, given how important this match is. We expect both teams to be nervous and both teams to get booked seems like a solid market despite the lower odds at 2/5. Otherwise, we'd wait for the first 20-30 minutes of the match, and if it's looking like it could get heated, we will bet on Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 cards live.
GambleAware