Dancing In Paris 14/1 (5pl) – Newcastle 3.15
With this being the Northumberland Plate, it's obviously very competitive.
I wouldn't say I'm surprised that Dancing In Paris has drifted, as I think he's gone to a correct price. 8/1 and prices a little shorter were probably too short based on what we've seen from him at Epsom on his seasonal reappearance.
I don't think you should read too much into his returning effort, as that was a pipe-opener, and I'd like to think that this has been his first target of the season. He went very close in this race last year, and it was the most wealthy race, so it makes total sense to get him primed for another good crack at it.
He is 4lbs higher than he was when he was defeated by a neck, but I think he is a nice EW price.
Cool Hoof Luke 14/1 (4pl) – Newcastle 3.45
It could be the wrong decision, but I am giving one last chance to Cool Hoof Luke.
I tipped him up on his run at York, and he bombed out. I was confident in a big run from him that day, as he had run two corkers on the AW, but for some reason, his turf form isn't anywhere near what it used to be.
Based on his last four runs, two on turf and two on the AW, he looks like he is a proper AW horse now. This is going to be a tough ask on his handicap debut off 10st 2lbs, but if he can improve from his two runs this year on this surface, he could easily be good enough.
The form of being closely behind Dilligent Harry, Completely Random and then beating Heathcliff reads well.
Our Cody 15/2 (4pl) – York 2.25
This is a very interesting sprint handicap, and if the horses haven't already proven themselves at Class 1 level, I'm sure quite a few of these will be running in those races later this year.
Our Cody was my pick, and I think it's hard to fault his two runs this season. She ran well on her return in a handicap, then massively outran her odds of 40/1 in a good Listed race last time out at Sandown.
Back down into a handicap, from a fairly untouched handicap mark, I thought she had a solid enough chance.
La Brodeuse 8/1 (3pl) – Chester 3.33
If the favourite turns up in the same form that she showed when in Ireland, she should win this, but I'll be banking that she doesn't.
I tipped up La Brodeuse last time out in a Listed race, and I was confident in her winning that day. She got the lead but was far too keen. She is drawn in Stall 6, so if she does break well, she can go on the attack. However, I'd like to see her get some cover and go for a late lunge up the rail when they come to the home bend. If she can settle, I think she is much better than what we saw last time out.
GambleAware