The battle for supremacy intensifies in the J1 League and Allsvenskan, with reigning champions and newcomers alike testing their mettle. Meanwhile, in the USL Championship, an underdog strives to defy the odds. As we move into a thrilling weekend of football, both comfort zones and league standings will be challenged.
Yokohama F-Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale
Saturday, 11:00 am
An eye-catching J1 League contest on Saturday comes from Nissan Stadium when reigning champions Yokohama F-Marinos welcomes an under-performing Kawasaki Frontale. I say underperforming as we are so used to seeing them at the top of the table, yet we’re over halfway into the campaign and they sit 9th in this 18-team league, and way out of title contention. Yokohama, managed by ex-Millwall hard-man Kevin Muscat, are three points ahead of Kobe at the top of the standings and hasn’t lost a league game since the middle of May.
The big question is if and when Kawasaki will return to their true level. It might not even be this season, or if it does then could they become quite a streaky team? They’re certainly not as reliable as you’d expect them to be, although one defeat in their last seven in all competitions is a big step back in the right direction. However, five of those were at home, and it is on the road where they have issues. One win in their past six on the road in all competitions highlights a current issue.
Yokohama on the other hand possess the strongest home record in the division, holding one of only two unbeaten home records. They’re averaging 2.77 goals per home league game, and have the joint-second best home defensive record to add further credibility to their home performances. You have to go all the way back to October last year to see their last home league defeat.
The home side do concede chances however, and their very high Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 34.47 is the fourth-highest in the division, despite sitting top of the table. They should have conceded 11 more goals than they have done, but having the second-best Expected Goals (xG) figure kind of negates that and especially at home. You have to fancy them this weekend against a team struggling on the road.
You can get odds-against on a home win, but to play it slightly safer I’ll back Yokohama F-Marinos on the -0.25 Asian Handicap, which is priced at 1.925 with Bet365. Kawasaki have yet to beat a top-five club this season, but they are capable on their day on being more than competitive. The general rule in this league is always find a way of getting Yokohama F-Marinos on side when they’re at home.
Hacken v Brommapojkarna
Saturday, 4:30 pm
At first glance, title challenging Hacken at home to promoted Brommapojkarna may suggest quite a routine home win is on the cards, and the bookies view it that way, but it might not be so straightforward. Without a doubt, this is not the most important game that Hacken will play in this period of time, and that factor has to be taken into consideration. Sure, they are battling for the title and won’t want to lose ground with Elfsborg and Malmo, but this game is sandwiched between two key UEFA Champions League qualification matches.
Hacken hold a 3-1 first-leg lead from their clash with Welsh side TNS, and will play the second leg a few days’ after this Allsvenskan clash. With that European tie from far over, you wonder if a degree of rotation may occur from manager Per-Mathias Høgmo, or if the players themselves will be wary of what is to come. They are only human after all, and the UEFA Champions League is a big deal.
They probably would have wanted more of a home banker in this clash than having to face a Brommapojkarna side that has settled into the top flight very nicely since winning promotion. They sit comfortably in mid-table, and a big reason for that is their solid away record, which can only be bettered by the current top three, including Hacken. Four defeats in their last five overall is a concern, but they’re generally good for a goal.
The away side have only failed to score on three occasions in league action this season, and only one of those came on the road. Hacken have only not scored twice, and have netted in each and every home encounter. Hacken are also joint-top of the league standings in relation to matches seeing both teams score, which is a bit of a surprise. You would also expect them to have more than three clean sheets, yet they don’t.
With Hacken maybe having half an eye elsewhere, I don’t expect them to romp to the sort of win a 1.25 shot normally would. I really, really like the look of Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals here, which is nicely priced at 1.95 with 10Bet at the time of writing. I am jumping all over that! Six of Hacken’s seven home games have beat the 3.5 goal line, so hopefully we’re safe with 2.5, whilst Brommapojkarna away battles are averaging 3.00 goals per game, too.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Detroit City
Sunday 12:00 am
My guilty pleasure, the USL Championship, has to be involved in some part of my weekly column and there is one contest which instantly jumped out at me when seeing the fixtures. Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit top of the Eastern Conference, having lost only twice all season and shipped only 12 goals in the process, entertains Detroit City, who have been in the bottom-three in the same conference for practically the whole season so far.
You don’t tend to get too many midweek matches in this league, but both did play a few days’ ago, but both have had to do some travelling so I wouldn’t say one team is favoured particularly by this. One big advantage in the corner of Pittsburgh is they do have more strength in depth to freshen up their side, so that could be key in this contest. Furthermore, and perhaps more glaringly obvious, Pittsburgh are just a much better team than Detroit, and anything but a home win here is a shock.
I’m actually surprised they aren’t shorter than 1.50 to win here, which is already low enough. Still, there is value to be had betting on a game like this, and if you know the league, then it makes a lot of sense. We’ll focus on that shortly, but a bit more about Detroit. The big problem they have had is scoring goals and a trip to the league leaders with a stingy defence perhaps isn’t the type of match they’d want. They are the lowest scorers in USL with 13, and whilst their xG is 20.16, even that is second-lowest across the Eastern and Western Conferences. Pittsburgh’s xGA is just 13.76, with San Antonio at 18.98 the closest, and compare that to Detroit, which stands at 31.15, everything points to a home win.
The bet which stands out a million miles is Pittsburgh to Win and Both Teams to Score ‘No’ at 2.25 with Unibet. I genuinely would be shocked if this did not come through and it is my best bet of the weekend. It is going to take a kind of outrageous goal from distance for them to score as in terms of creativity Detroit just aren’t going enough coming up against as well an organised outfit as Pittsburgh, who have been building and building under long-term manager Bob Lilley.
Elfsborg v Goteborg
Sunday, 2:00pm
Elfsborg last won the Swedish top-flight title in 2012 and it would appear that this year looks to be their best chance of any since then to make it a seventh Allsvenskan triumph. They finished as runners-up in 2020 but Malmo still won the league quite comfortably, but 14 games into the current campaign they are the team to catch. Only once have they tasted defeat, which came on the opening day to fellow title challengers Hacken, and they’ve been defeating pretty much everything in their path since then. Goteborg are the visitors on Sunday, a side sitting joint-bottom of the standings with only eight points and one victory to their name. This looks like another home banker!
Goteborg did recently change manager when bringing Jens Berthel Askou into the club, but three matches in they have two defeats and a draw to their name, including a defeat last time out at home to Varberg, who are the other team sitting joint-bottom with them. Not the best start, therefore, and a trip to Elfsborg is definitely the last thing they’d have wanted. Whilst you may argue they can play without pressure as nothing is expected of them in this match, the reality is that they will be under big pressure whilst they remain where they are in the table. They weren’t expected to be in this position, and Elfsborg could really give them a beating on Sunday in they’re not careful.
Elfsborg have the best defensive record in the league, conceding only ten goals. That is a hell of a return, especially considering how much output they give as an attacking unit. They are only second to Hacken on the xG front, and yet they don’t appear to be giving much away at the other end of the pitch. This strikes of a well-oiled machine and one which is ticking along nicely. This team has none of the problems that Goteborg are full of. The away side have just 12 goals to their name and have looked toothless in attack recently against fairly weak opposition.
I do expect a comfortable home win in this Sunday afternoon renewal and Bet365 are prepared to offer 1.96 on Elfsborg defeating a -1.50 deficit on the Asian Handicap. Elfsborg have six home league wins to their name this season, and the scores read 2-0, 6-1, 3-0, 2-0, 6-1 and 5-0, which included beating Malmo and Hammarby. They’ve therefore beaten the handicap in all those, and with them expected to win again, why change the habit of a lifetime? Easy home win.
Tips
- Yokohama F-Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale – Yokohama F-Marinos -0.25 (1.925 Bet365)
- Hacken v Brommapojkarna – Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (1.95 10Bet)
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Detroit City – Pittsburgh to Win & Both Teams to Score ‘No’ (2.25 Unibet)
- Elfsborg v Goteborg – Elfsborg -1.50 (1.96 Bet365)
In December 2020 we sadly 
Can never count Kawasaki out but surely Marinos get the job done here?
Very good write-ups. Good analysis on the Swedish Allsvenskan.