Oct 2nd: Argentina – Primera B Metropolitana Early Evening Treble
Almirante Brown v Justo Jose de Urquiza (KO 7.30pm)
We’re looking at an Under 2.5 goals bet in this game.
First thing to point out is, after 20% of the games have been played, the league is averaging out at 31% over, 69% under.
Almirante are a very solid 3 wins at home, twice scoring one and once scoring two, but, importantly, conceding no goals in those games. Significant opponent in that run is Sacachispas, who’ve played five games away, four of which have been over and just the one under, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their one game under was 1-0 to Almirante – Almirante’s most recent at home.
Meanwhile, despite four away games offering fairly high stats of F4 A7 and a GPG average of 2.8, Justo Jose’s record is also in our favour with three games under and only one over – that was a 4-2 encounter in August that masks some otherwise unremarkable scoring and conceding in three other away games, averaging out at under 2 a game.
- No recent H2H.
- Under 2.5 is 4-9, bet365
Sacachispas v Colegiales (KO 7.30pm)
Another Under 2.5 goals bet in this one.
I’m going to start with the H2H on this one from last season. Because, be aware, with Sacachispas at home, it was a 3-0 win for Colegiales, whilst with Sacachispas away, it was a 3-3 draw. Equally, four of Sacachispas’s five away games this season have been over.
That’s the warning – nothing is set in stone in this league, even though it sometimes looks from the scores like the ball may have been…
But it’s generally about the home record versus the away record.
- Sacachispas home are P3 O0 U3 F2 A3 Avg GPG 1.7
- Colegiales away are P4 O0 U4 F2 A4 Avg GPG 1.5
- Under 2.5 is 1-2, bet365
All Boys v Talleres (KO 7.35pm)
We’re looking at a home win here.
The Under 2.5 has some appeal, too, but we are pitting one team with a solid home record against one that’s not doing a lot away. (Except losing.)
All Boys have a home record of P3 W2 D1 F5 A3. They’ve beaten 8th and 14th best away and drawn with 17th best away. Talleres are 15th best away. (Note the nature of their one win below.) All Boys have also won 2 and drawn 1 of their four away, so, they have a bit of momentum.
Despite winning their first game of the season, away against 14th best home side Espanol, who have now played five games at home, Talleres have lost every game since – three home and three away – scoring one goal and conceding nine in the process.
Away, they’ve lost to 4th, 6th and 7th best home sides. All Boys are the 8th best home side, but have only played three at home this season, as compared to the four at home played by all of those other victors over Talleres.
At good odds against, which have me scratching my head a tiny bit – I guess All Boys haven’t played anybody that great at home, while Talleres have had a much tougher run away, so, draw no bet is an option for the wary – but I still very much like the home win. (31-20, bet365)
- Almirante Brown v Justo Jose de Urquiza – UNDER 2.5
- Sacachispas v Colegiales – UNDER 2.5
- All Boys v Talleres – HOME WIN
That treble works out at 9-2, bet365
Good luck tonight, everybody!